Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:91% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:83% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:54% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:25% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.4% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 15.8% | 54.6% |
| 6-2 | 32.5% | 1.7% |
| 5-3 | 31.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 14.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.9% (-0.7%) | 11.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.4% (+1.8%) | 11.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.2%) | 11.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.6% (-1.0%) | 13.1% (+1.5%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.2%) | 11.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.1% (+0.4%) | 11.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (-0.3%) | 11.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.2%) | 11.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.1%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
UCLA
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 13.1% • Scenario: 41.1%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
1.8%Any 1 loss
56.7%
12.5%
100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%
70.4%
1.7%67.5%
<0.1%
60.9%
1.4%
59.2%
0.4%51.4%
1.9%
51.4%
0.4%
49.5%
6.0%Any 2 losses
10.8%
22.4%100.0%
<0.1%66.4%
0.4%66.0%
0.1%64.0%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.3%
0.3%59.1%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.9%
0.4%51.8%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%48.5%
1.2%7.3%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
0.4%5.5%
0.3%5.5%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
1.3%2.1%
1.4%2.0%
4.3%2.0%
1.4%1.8%
1.6%1.8%
0.3%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
1.1%1.4%
5.0%1.2%
0.4%Any 3 losses
3.5%
7.2%100.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%41.1%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.1%
1.0%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.9%1.5%
0.3%1.3%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.6%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
1.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15