WisconsinBadgers

2-1 T3rd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsWestern MichiganWMU	W28-14
2	9/07	vsSouth DakotaSDAK	W27-13
3	9/14	vsAlabamaALA	L10-42
5	9/28	@USCUSC	Win prob:17%
6	10/05	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:81%
7	10/12	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:48%
8	10/19	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:56%
9	10/26	vsPenn StatePSU	Win prob:20%
10	11/02	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:37%
12	11/16	vsOregonORE	Win prob:11%
13	11/23	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:36%
14	11/29	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:60%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.2%	73.7%
7-2	1.4%	14.1%
6-3	6.6%	0.2%
5-4	17.8%	0%
4-5	28.2%	0%
3-6	27.0%	0%
2-7	14.4%	0%
1-8	4.0%	0%
0-9	0.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

47.1%

29.4%

14.7%

5.9%

2.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IllinoisILL@NebraskaNEB	0.3% (-0.1%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
USCUSC@MichiganMICH	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
IowaIOWA@MinnesotaMINN	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
PurduePUR@Oregon StateORST	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
NorthwesternNU@WashingtonWASH	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ohio StateOSU	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@MarylandMD	0.3% (-0.1%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@LSULSU	0.3% (-0.1%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Penn StatePSU	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@Boston CollegeBC	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

73.8%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.3%

<0.1%

90.0%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

76.7%

<0.1%

73.3%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

58.1%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

14.4%

1.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.3%

<0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

29.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.9%

<0.1%

26.1%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.9%

<0.1%

19.1%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.0%

<0.1%

13.2%

<0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.1%

0.3%

9.4%

<0.1%

9.3%

0.1%

8.7%

0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

1.4%

0.7%

16.7%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com