USC

USCTrojans

2-0 T3rd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

9.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

USCSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
19/01
vsLSULSU(N)
W27-20
29/07
vsUtah StUSU
W48-0
49/21
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:24%
59/28
vsWisconsinWIS
Win prob:83%
610/05
@MinnesotaMINN
Win prob:73%
710/12
vsPenn StPSU
Win prob:46%
810/19
@MarylandMD
Win prob:55%
910/25
vsRutgersRUTG
Win prob:86%
1011/02
@WashingtonWASH
Win prob:45%
1211/16
vsNebraskaNEB
Win prob:79%
1311/23
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:81%
1411/30
vsNotre DameND
Win prob:27%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

USCRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.9%
100.0%
8-1
7.1%
74.5%
7-2
20.1%
14.5%
6-3
29.8%
0.2%
5-4
25.0%
0%
4-5
12.5%
0%
3-6
3.8%
0%
2-7
0.7%
0%
1-8
0.1%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely USC CCG Opponents

if USC makes the CCG

Ohio StateOhio St
43.3%
OregonOregon
29.9%
MichiganMichigan
15.8%
Penn StatePenn St
9.2%
WashingtonWashington
1.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

USCThis Week's Impact

Game
USCCCG OddsAway
USCCCG OddsHome
IllinoisILL@NebraskaNEB
8.9%
(-0.3%)		9.3%
(+0.1%)
USCUSC@MichiganMICH
24.7%
(+15.6%)		4.2%
(-4.9%)
IowaIOWA@MinnesotaMINN
8.8%
(-0.4%)		9.5%
(+0.4%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU
9.1%
(-0.1%)		9.2%
(+0.0%)
PurduePUR@Oregon StORST
9.6%
(+0.4%)		9.1%
(-0.1%)
NorthwesternNU@WashingtonWASH
8.8%
(-0.3%)		9.2%
(+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Ohio StOSU
8.8%
(-0.4%)		9.2%
(+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@MarylandMD
9.2%
(-0.0%)		9.2%
(+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@LSULSU
9.2%
(+0.0%)		9.2%
(+0.0%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT
9.2%
(+0.0%)		9.2%
(-0.0%)
KentKENT@Penn StPSU
8.0%
(-1.2%)		9.2%
(+0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@Boston CollegeBC
9.4%
(+0.2%)		9.0%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

USCLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
USC CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%
Any 1 loss
81.0%
2.6%
Notre Dame
100.0%
0.7%
Nebraska
87.5%
<0.1%
Minnesota
86.4%
<0.1%
Maryland
85.2%
0.2%
Washington
81.7%
0.3%
Wisconsin
81.5%
<0.1%
Rutgers
80.7%
<0.1%
UCLA
78.2%
<0.1%
Penn St
72.5%
0.3%
Michigan
66.2%
0.8%
Any 2 losses
43.4%
10.7%
MinnesotaNotre Dame
89.2%
0.3%
Notre DameRutgers
87.3%
0.1%
Notre DameWisconsin
86.1%
0.1%
NebraskaNotre Dame
85.6%
0.2%
Notre DameUCLA
84.7%
0.1%
MarylandNotre Dame
83.9%
0.5%
Notre DameWashington
79.9%
0.8%
Notre DamePenn St
74.8%
0.8%
MinnesotaNebraska
65.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre Dame
65.3%
2.2%
RutgersUCLA
58.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaRutgers
58.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaRutgers
53.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUCLA
46.2%
<0.1%
NebraskaUCLA
41.7%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesota
36.3%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLA
36.0%
<0.1%
MarylandWisconsin
35.7%
<0.1%
MarylandWashington
34.0%
0.3%
UCLAWashington
33.8%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
31.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWisconsin
29.4%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraska
29.2%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgers
28.1%
<0.1%
RutgersWashington
26.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWashington
23.9%
<0.1%
RutgersWisconsin
22.2%
<0.1%
NebraskaWashington
20.6%
0.1%
NebraskaPenn St
20.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaPenn St
19.8%
0.1%
MarylandPenn St
19.0%
0.2%
NebraskaWisconsin
18.2%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLA
17.5%
<0.1%
MichiganRutgers
14.3%
0.1%
MichiganMinnesota
13.8%
0.3%
MichiganWisconsin
13.4%
0.2%
Penn StRutgers
12.8%
<0.1%
Penn StWashington
12.7%
0.3%
MarylandMichigan
10.9%
0.6%
MichiganUCLA
9.9%
0.2%
Penn StWisconsin
9.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraska
8.8%
0.2%
UCLAWisconsin
7.1%
<0.1%
MichiganWashington
6.9%
1.0%
MichiganPenn St
6.2%
0.9%
Any 3 losses
14.2%
14.8%
Notre DameUCLAWisconsin
46.9%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre Dame
46.3%
0.2%
MinnesotaNotre DameRutgers
39.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraskaNotre Dame
37.1%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameUCLA
35.9%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
35.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameRutgers
34.2%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameRutgers
32.4%
0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWashington
32.0%
0.3%
MarylandNotre DameUCLA
31.2%
0.1%
Notre DameWashingtonWisconsin
29.1%
0.2%
MarylandNebraskaNotre Dame
28.9%
0.2%
Notre DameRutgersUCLA
28.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAWashington
28.0%
0.2%
MarylandNotre DameWisconsin
27.9%
0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWisconsin
26.9%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameWashington
23.3%
0.6%
Notre DameRutgersWashington
22.6%
0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgers
22.4%
0.1%
Notre DamePenn StWisconsin
21.3%
0.2%
NebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
21.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
20.6%
0.3%
Notre DamePenn StUCLA
20.1%
0.2%
NebraskaNotre DamePenn St
18.6%
0.2%
NebraskaNotre DameWashington
17.9%
0.2%
MichiganNotre DameRutgers
17.6%
0.4%
MarylandNotre DamePenn St
16.1%
0.7%
MichiganNebraskaNotre Dame
15.2%
0.6%
MichiganMinnesotaNotre Dame
14.9%
0.8%
MichiganNotre DameWisconsin
11.5%
0.5%
MarylandMichiganNotre Dame
11.2%
1.7%
MichiganNotre DameUCLA
11.0%
0.4%
Notre DamePenn StWashington
9.3%
0.9%
MichiganNotre DamePenn St
7.4%
2.5%
MichiganNotre DameWashington
7.2%
2.5%
MichiganNebraskaWisconsin
4.9%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaUCLA
4.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUCLAWashington
3.5%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraskaPenn St
1.3%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaWashington
1.1%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
1.5%
1.5%
MinnesotaNebraskaNotre DameUCLA
6.3%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DameWisconsin
6.1%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNebraskaNotre Dame
3.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWashingtonWisconsin
3.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLAWashington
2.7%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
2.4%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameRutgersWashington
2.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
1.7%
0.1%
MarylandNotre DameWashingtonWisconsin
1.5%
0.1%
NebraskaNotre DamePenn StWashington
1.3%
0.2%
MichiganNotre DameRutgersUCLA
1.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUCLAWisconsin
0.8%
0.1%
MarylandMichiganNotre DameRutgers
0.7%
0.3%
MarylandNebraskaNotre DameWashington
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

USCCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com