Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:92% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:65% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:96% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 21.1% | 94.3% |
| 7-2 | 34.9% | 30.7% |
| 6-3 | 26.4% | 1.0% |
| 5-4 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 36.0% (+0.8%) | 34.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 14.9% (-20.3%) | 41.7% (+6.4%) | |
| 34.4% (-0.9%) | 36.1% (+0.9%) | |
| 35.7% (+0.4%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.9% (+0.7%) | 35.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.4%) | 35.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.6% (-1.6%) | 35.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.5% (-0.7%) | 35.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.4% (+0.2%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.8% (+0.5%) | 35.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 36.0% (+0.7%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.1%) | 35.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.4%Any 1 loss
94.3%
21.1%
99.7%
0.3%
99.5%
0.7%
99.4%
0.2%
99.2%
1.3%
99.0%
0.4%
97.3%
0.7%
96.3%
2.2%
94.3%
4.4%
92.3%
10.9%Any 2 losses
30.7%
34.9%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%77.0%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%66.0%
0.2%64.8%
0.1%63.0%
0.4%62.6%
<0.1%60.3%
0.2%58.7%
0.2%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.9%
0.3%50.7%
0.2%49.0%
0.2%46.2%
0.3%45.8%
0.7%44.8%
0.7%44.2%
1.6%44.1%
0.9%44.0%
0.4%43.2%
0.8%42.7%
0.7%40.6%
0.4%37.3%
1.7%35.9%
2.4%31.8%
1.5%29.8%
5.7%28.7%
3.4%15.0%
11.2%Any 3 losses
1.6%
13.8%23.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.3%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.5%1.9%
0.4%1.9%
0.5%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.9%1.8%
0.4%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.9%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
1.8%1.0%
0.4%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.9%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
1.7%0.7%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15