Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-02

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1Miami FLMIA0-01-045.1%
T1SMUSMU0-01-035.0%
T1ClemsonCLEM0-00-132.3%
T1LouisvilleLOU0-01-028.2%
T1Georgia TechGT0-01-09.8%
T1Virginia TechVT0-00-19.3%
T1VirginiaUVA0-01-08.8%
T1CaliforniaCAL0-01-07.5%
T1NC StateNCSU0-01-06.9%
T1DukeDUKE0-01-06.2%
T1Boston CollegeBC0-01-03.1%
T1Florida StFSU0-01-02.6%
T1PittsburghPITT0-01-02.1%
T1SyracuseSYR0-00-11.4%
T1North CarolinaUNC0-00-11.2%
T1Wake ForestWAKE0-01-00.5%
T1StanfordSTAN0-00-1<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

110.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
210.3%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
MIAMiami FL
38.0%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
46.7%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
SMUSMU
55.9%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
65.4%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
LOULouisville
72.9%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
82.6%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
92.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
VTVirginia Tech
102.2%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
MIAMiami FL
112.0%
SMUSMU
vs
VTVirginia Tech
122.0%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
131.9%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
141.8%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
151.7%
Miami FLMIA
vs
NCSUNC State

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 45.1%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
East Texas A&METAM@Florida StFSU
45.3%
(+0.2%)		45.1%
(-0.0%)
Bethune-CookmanBCU@Miami FLMIA
45.6%
(+0.5%)		45.0%
(-0.1%)
StanfordSTAN@BYUBYU
44.7%
(-0.3%)		45.1%
(+0.0%)
BaylorBAY@SMUSMU
45.5%
(+0.4%)		45.0%
(-0.1%)
TroyTROY@ClemsonCLEM
45.3%
(+0.2%)		45.1%
(-0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@CharlotteCLT
45.0%
(-0.1%)		45.4%
(+0.3%)
James MadisonJMU@LouisvilleLOU
45.3%
(+0.2%)		45.0%
(-0.1%)
IllinoisILL@DukeDUKE
44.9%
(-0.1%)		45.2%
(+0.1%)
UConnCONN@SyracuseSYR
45.0%
(-0.1%)		45.1%
(+0.1%)
VanderbiltVAN@Virginia TechVT
44.7%
(-0.4%)		45.3%
(+0.2%)
Western CarolinaWCU@Wake ForestWAKE
45.1%
(+0.0%)		45.1%
(+0.0%)
Texas SouthernTXSO@CaliforniaCAL
45.2%
(+0.1%)		45.1%
(-0.0%)
VirginiaUVA@NC StateNCSU
44.1%
(-1.0%)		45.9%
(+0.8%)
Boston CollegeBC@Michigan StMSU
45.0%
(-0.1%)		45.2%
(+0.1%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@Georgia TechGT
45.5%
(+0.4%)		45.0%
(-0.0%)
C MichiganCMU@PittsburghPITT
44.5%
(-0.5%)		45.2%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA-100%-95.0%-38.6%-0.6%45.1%
SMUSMU-100%-96.8%-41.0%-0.7%35.0%
ClemsonCLEM-100%-94.8%-42.0%-1.4%32.3%
LouisvilleLOU-100%-98.7%-55.2%-2.6%28.2%
Georgia TechGT-100%-87.1%-28.0%-0.3%9.8%
Virginia TechVT-100%-94.6%-42.4%-0.9%9.3%
VirginiaUVA100%-99.3%-73.5%-5.4%-8.8%
CaliforniaCAL-99.7%-91.8%-31.8%-0.4%7.5%
NC StateNCSU100%-99.8%-75.6%-5.6%-6.9%
DukeDUKE-100%-87.8%-24.6%-0.2%6.2%
Boston CollegeBC-100%-94.9%-36.5%-0.4%3.1%
Florida StFSU-100%-91.3%-29.0%-0.2%2.6%
PittsburghPITT-100%-91.7%-30.9%-0.3%2.1%
SyracuseSYR-100%-96.3%-42.3%-1.3%1.4%
North CarolinaUNC-100%-85.0%-21.5%-<0.1%1.2%
Wake ForestWAKE-100%-95.3%-36.6%-0.6%0.5%
StanfordSTAN---100%-36.1%-1.0%<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-71-80-80-9Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(0-0)-7.9%0.0%25.5%0.0%33.3%0.0%22.4%0.0%8.7%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.9
SMUSMU(0-0)-4.4%0.0%18.4%0.0%30.6%0.0%27.6%0.0%14.1%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.6
ClemsonCLEM(0-0)-3.8%0.0%16.6%0.0%29.6%0.0%28.1%0.0%15.6%0.0%5.2%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%-5.4
LouisvilleLOU(0-0)-2.1%0.0%11.4%0.0%25.5%0.0%29.9%0.0%20.5%0.0%8.3%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%-5.1
VirginiaUVA(0-0)0.1%0.0%1.8%0.0%7.9%0.0%19.3%0.0%27.5%0.0%24.8%0.0%13.4%0.0%4.4%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%4.7
NC StateNCSU(0-0)<0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.2%0.0%16.4%0.0%25.7%0.0%25.4%0.0%16.6%0.0%6.7%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%4.5
Georgia TechGT(0-0)-0.8%0.0%5.2%0.0%15.9%0.0%26.7%0.0%26.7%0.0%16.8%0.0%6.5%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.1%-4.4
CaliforniaCAL(0-0)-0.4%0.0%3.3%0.0%12.8%0.0%25.5%0.0%29.3%0.0%19.7%0.0%7.5%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%-4.2
Virginia TechVT(0-0)-0.4%0.0%3.6%0.0%12.4%0.0%23.9%0.0%28.3%0.0%20.2%0.0%8.9%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.2%-4.2
DukeDUKE(0-0)-0.3%0.0%3.1%0.0%12.2%0.0%24.2%0.0%28.6%0.0%20.4%0.0%8.8%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.2%-4.1
Florida StFSU(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.5%0.0%16.5%0.0%28.2%0.0%27.9%0.0%15.6%0.0%4.7%0.0%0.6%-3.6
Boston CollegeBC(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.5%0.0%15.6%0.0%27.0%0.0%27.7%0.0%16.9%0.0%5.5%0.0%0.7%-3.5
PittsburghPITT(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.5%0.0%13.9%0.0%25.4%0.0%28.6%0.0%19.0%0.0%6.9%0.0%1.0%-3.3
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.3%0.0%11.5%0.0%23.6%0.0%29.8%0.0%21.7%0.0%8.2%0.0%1.2%-3.2
SyracuseSYR(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.3%0.0%9.8%0.0%23.5%0.0%31.3%0.0%22.9%0.0%8.6%0.0%1.3%-3.1
Wake ForestWAKE(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%5.1%0.0%15.1%0.0%27.1%0.0%29.7%0.0%17.6%0.0%4.3%-2.5
StanfordSTAN(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.6%0.0%15.6%0.0%30.6%0.0%33.3%0.0%15.0%-1.6

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com