Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:24% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.4% | 98.2% |
| 7-2 | 9.6% | 62.0% |
| 6-3 | 20.5% | 5.5% |
| 5-4 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% (+0.4%) | 9.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.2% (+0.6%) | 9.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.0%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.1%) | 9.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.4%) | 9.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.3%) | 9.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (-0.3%) | 9.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.1%) | 9.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.3%) | 9.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.2%) | 9.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.7% (+0.0%) | 9.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.2%) | 9.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.2%) | 9.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.4%
0.7%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%
98.0%
<0.1%
96.0%
0.1%
95.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.9%
3.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
0.2%98.5%
0.1%96.7%
0.5%95.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.7%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.1%
0.1%60.0%
0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.1%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.5%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%45.3%
0.3%Any 3 losses
41.2%
11.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
0.1%72.1%
0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%70.1%
0.2%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
0.2%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%65.8%
0.4%65.4%
0.1%64.7%
0.4%64.4%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%62.9%
0.2%62.7%
0.4%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
0.3%61.8%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.1%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%56.1%
0.5%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
0.7%54.5%
0.3%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
0.8%45.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.3%
0.3%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02