Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:92% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:60% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 98.6% |
| 7-2 | 15.3% | 69.9% |
| 6-3 | 25.1% | 10.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 19.6% (+0.1%) | 19.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.1%) | 19.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.0%) | 19.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.3%) | 19.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 19.5% (+0.1%) | 19.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.0% (-0.4%) | 19.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.7% (+0.2%) | 19.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 18.6% (-0.9%) | 19.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.9% (+0.4%) | 19.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.0%) | 19.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.2%) | 19.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.1%) | 19.1% (-0.4%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.2%) | 19.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.2%) | 19.6% (+0.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
98.6%
3.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%99.6%
0.3%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.0%
0.5%98.6%
0.6%98.4%
0.4%97.6%
0.5%97.3%
0.6%Any 2 losses
74.0%
11.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%98.2%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%86.0%
0.3%85.9%
<0.1%84.9%
0.1%83.5%
0.2%83.0%
0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%79.0%
0.3%78.4%
0.2%78.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.0%
0.2%77.7%
0.2%77.6%
0.5%77.2%
0.1%76.2%
0.3%74.9%
0.2%73.7%
0.2%73.4%
0.3%73.3%
0.3%71.8%
0.4%71.6%
0.3%70.9%
0.3%70.3%
0.3%68.8%
0.2%67.3%
0.3%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
0.1%64.4%
0.7%63.7%
0.5%62.9%
0.5%60.1%
0.7%59.3%
0.4%58.1%
0.4%52.7%
0.7%Any 3 losses
25.1%
21.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
0.1%86.0%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.9%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.5%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.7%
0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
0.1%73.4%
0.2%73.2%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
0.3%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.2%65.5%
0.2%65.3%
0.2%64.9%
<0.1%64.9%
0.2%64.4%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.6%
0.3%62.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%58.5%
0.1%49.6%
0.3%49.2%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%21.8%
0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%19.2%
0.3%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
0.2%16.2%
0.1%15.6%
0.2%15.2%
0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.1%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%12.9%
0.4%12.9%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
0.3%12.2%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
0.3%11.7%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.5%
0.6%11.3%
0.1%11.2%
0.2%11.1%
0.2%10.9%
0.3%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.7%
0.2%10.6%
0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.4%
0.3%10.2%
0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.9%
0.3%9.8%
0.3%9.7%
0.4%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.7%9.2%
0.2%9.0%
0.3%8.9%
0.2%8.9%
0.4%8.8%
0.2%8.7%
0.1%8.7%
0.3%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.4%8.3%
0.2%8.3%
0.3%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.5%
0.6%7.4%
0.3%7.3%
0.4%7.1%
0.2%7.1%
0.4%7.0%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.0%
0.5%6.0%
0.2%5.2%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.7%Any 4 losses
13.2%
8.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.2%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02