Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:74% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:62% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 99.7% |
| 7-1 | 3.3% | 91.8% |
| 6-2 | 12.8% | 31.8% |
| 5-3 | 25.5% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.8% (+0.3%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (-0.2%) | 7.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.7%) | 7.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.8% (+0.2%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.5% (-0.1%) | 7.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.1%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.2%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.5% (-0.0%) | 7.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.8% (+0.3%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.9% (+0.3%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.5% (-0.0%) | 7.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.4% (-0.1%) | 7.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
93.3%
1.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%95.5%
0.2%95.5%
<0.1%95.4%
<0.1%90.3%
0.4%86.5%
0.2%Any 2 losses
48.8%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.5%
0.2%94.1%
0.1%93.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.3%
0.4%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
0.2%86.7%
0.1%86.1%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.9%
0.2%44.6%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.1%
0.1%35.4%
0.3%34.6%
0.1%34.1%
0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.5%
0.2%29.8%
0.4%28.8%
<0.1%28.1%
0.3%26.7%
0.2%23.9%
0.6%17.8%
0.7%Any 3 losses
26.5%
9.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%92.8%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.9%
0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
0.2%44.8%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.1%41.1%
0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
0.1%38.8%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.1%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.3%29.5%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%28.5%
0.4%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
0.2%26.2%
<0.1%25.9%
0.6%25.8%
0.2%25.7%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.9%
0.2%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.4%
0.8%15.4%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.6%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
17.4%
4.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.0%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.9%
0.2%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%16.0%
0.3%16.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02