California

CaliforniaGolden Bears

1-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

7.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

CaliforniaSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
W34-15
29/06
Win prob:90%
39/13
Win prob:48%
49/20
Win prob:74%
59/27
Win prob:49%
610/04
Win prob:62%
810/17
Win prob:75%
910/24
Win prob:39%
1011/01
Win prob:62%
1111/08
Win prob:23%
1311/22
Win prob:78%
1411/29
Win prob:35%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CaliforniaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.4%
99.7%
7-1
3.3%
91.8%
6-2
12.8%
31.8%
5-3
25.5%
0.4%
4-4
29.3%
0%
3-5
19.7%
0%
2-6
7.5%
0%
1-7
1.5%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely California CCG Opponents

if California makes the CCG

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CaliforniaThis Week's Impact

Game
CaliforniaCCG OddsAway
CaliforniaCCG OddsHome
7.8%
(+0.3%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.3%
(-0.2%)
7.6%
(+0.0%)
8.2%
(+0.7%)
7.5%
(-0.1%)
7.7%
(+0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.1%)
7.8%
(+0.2%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.5%
(-0.1%)
7.7%
(+0.1%)
7.6%
(+0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.7%
(+0.1%)
7.4%
(-0.1%)
7.7%
(+0.2%)
7.4%
(-0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.6%
(+0.0%)
7.8%
(+0.3%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.9%
(+0.3%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.7%
(+0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)
7.6%
(+0.0%)
7.4%
(-0.1%)
7.6%
(+0.0%)
7.6%
(+0.1%)
7.5%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CaliforniaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
California CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%
Any 1 loss
93.3%
1.3%
Minnesota
100.0%
0.1%
Texas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego St
98.2%
<0.1%
North Carolina
97.6%
<0.1%
Virginia
97.4%
<0.1%
Boston College
97.0%
0.1%
Virginia Tech
95.5%
0.2%
Stanford
95.5%
<0.1%
Duke
95.4%
<0.1%
Louisville
90.3%
0.4%
SMU
86.5%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
48.8%
5.8%
San Diego StStanford
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
StanfordTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaVirginia
98.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTexas Southern
97.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego St
97.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StVirginia Tech
96.1%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego St
96.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth Carolina
95.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeTexas Southern
95.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaVirginia Tech
94.5%
0.2%
Boston CollegeMinnesota
94.1%
0.1%
DukeMinnesota
93.7%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernVirginia Tech
92.9%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego St
92.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesota
90.3%
0.4%
San Diego StVirginia
89.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMU
87.5%
0.2%
LouisvilleSan Diego St
86.7%
0.1%
SMUSan Diego St
86.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanford
84.4%
<0.1%
SMUTexas Southern
76.2%
<0.1%
DukeStanford
66.7%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginia Tech
55.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeStanford
55.6%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
54.5%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginia
53.8%
<0.1%
DukeVirginia Tech
50.4%
0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth Carolina
50.0%
<0.1%
VirginiaVirginia Tech
49.5%
0.1%
DukeNorth Carolina
45.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia Tech
44.9%
0.2%
SMUStanford
44.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia
43.8%
<0.1%
DukeVirginia
42.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDuke
41.9%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia
40.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaStanford
40.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanford
37.1%
0.1%
LouisvilleVirginia
35.4%
0.3%
SMUVirginia
34.6%
0.1%
DukeSMU
34.1%
0.1%
LouisvilleNorth Carolina
33.6%
0.1%
DukeLouisville
33.5%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisville
29.8%
0.4%
North CarolinaSMU
28.8%
<0.1%
SMUVirginia Tech
28.1%
0.3%
Boston CollegeSMU
26.7%
0.2%
LouisvilleVirginia Tech
23.9%
0.6%
LouisvilleSMU
17.8%
0.7%
Any 3 losses
26.5%
9.6%
MinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StStanford
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas SouthernVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSan Diego St
98.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia
96.3%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSan Diego St
96.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
92.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaTexas Southern
90.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego St
89.9%
0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaTexas Southern
89.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
88.9%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StTexas Southern
88.9%
<0.1%
MinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
88.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StTexas Southern
86.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUSan Diego St
86.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUTexas Southern
85.2%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
75.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeStanfordTexas Southern
71.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StStanfordVirginia Tech
70.6%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
66.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaVirginia
61.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaNorth Carolina
60.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StStanford
58.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
58.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordVirginia
57.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaStanford
57.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaVirginia
56.8%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaNorth Carolina
56.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeTexas SouthernVirginia
55.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StVirginia
52.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaStanford
50.0%
0.1%
DukeSan Diego StVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StVirginiaVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeTexas SouthernVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanfordTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StStanford
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeMinnesota
47.4%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaStanford
45.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaVirginia Tech
45.5%
0.2%
MinnesotaVirginiaVirginia Tech
44.8%
0.1%
SMUStanfordTexas Southern
44.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
43.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaStanford
42.9%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaVirginia
42.3%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSMUSan Diego St
41.7%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaVirginia Tech
41.6%
0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaNorth Carolina
41.1%
0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StVirginia
40.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StVirginia Tech
40.4%
<0.1%
StanfordTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
40.0%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StStanford
40.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StStanfordVirginia
40.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUVirginia
39.8%
0.1%
Boston CollegeSMUTexas Southern
39.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleSan Diego St
39.1%
0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordVirginia Tech
38.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeSan Diego St
38.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleTexas Southern
36.7%
<0.1%
DukeSMUSan Diego St
35.7%
<0.1%
DukeSMUTexas Southern
35.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTexas SouthernVirginia
35.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaVirginia
34.1%
0.3%
DukeLouisvilleSan Diego St
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
33.3%
<0.1%
StanfordTexas SouthernVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleMinnesota
33.2%
0.3%
SMUSan Diego StVirginia
29.5%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSMU
29.1%
0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMinnesota
28.5%
0.4%
LouisvilleTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
27.5%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernVirginiaVirginia Tech
27.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSMU
26.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StVirginia Tech
26.3%
0.2%
Boston CollegeSMUSan Diego St
26.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaVirginia Tech
25.9%
0.6%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSMU
25.8%
0.2%
SMUSan Diego StVirginia Tech
25.7%
0.1%
LouisvilleNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
25.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StVirginia
25.0%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StStanford
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StStanford
23.3%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleTexas Southern
22.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSMUSan Diego St
21.9%
0.2%
SMUTexas SouthernVirginia
21.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUVirginia Tech
20.7%
0.3%
North CarolinaSMUTexas Southern
20.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUStanford
17.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSMU
16.4%
0.8%
SMUTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
15.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSMUTexas Southern
10.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth CarolinaStanford
8.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeStanfordVirginia Tech
6.8%
<0.1%
DukeSMUVirginia
3.4%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
3.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNorth CarolinaStanford
3.1%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSMU
2.5%
<0.1%
DukeVirginiaVirginia Tech
1.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth CarolinaSMU
1.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.2%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleNorth Carolina
1.2%
<0.1%
SMUVirginiaVirginia Tech
1.1%
0.2%
SMUStanfordVirginia Tech
1.0%
0.1%
DukeLouisvilleVirginia
0.7%
0.1%
Boston CollegeSMUVirginia Tech
0.6%
0.3%
DukeLouisvilleVirginia Tech
0.6%
0.3%
LouisvilleSMUStanford
0.5%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleVirginia Tech
0.5%
0.6%
LouisvilleSMUVirginia
0.5%
0.4%
Any 4 losses
17.4%
4.5%
MinnesotaSMUSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego StStanford
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StStanfordTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StStanfordTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego StTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
90.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StStanfordVirginia
77.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
76.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUStanfordTexas Southern
75.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
70.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego StVirginia
69.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas SouthernVirginia
66.7%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas SouthernVirginiaVirginia Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
66.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSMUSan Diego StTexas Southern
66.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StStanfordVirginia Tech
64.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia
62.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeMinnesotaSan Diego St
62.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
60.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSan Diego StVirginiaVirginia Tech
59.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSan Diego StStanford
58.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginiaVirginia Tech
55.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeMinnesotaTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StStanfordTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StStanfordTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StStanfordTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSan Diego StStanford
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNorth CarolinaSan Diego StTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordTexas SouthernVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StStanfordTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia
48.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
47.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSMUSan Diego St
45.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
44.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
43.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
42.3%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia
41.7%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleSan Diego StTexas Southern
41.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia
38.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUTexas SouthernVirginia
38.5%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
37.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego St
34.0%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleSan Diego StTexas Southern
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaStanfordTexas Southern
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
33.3%
<0.1%
North CarolinaStanfordTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
32.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego StStanford
31.7%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
31.3%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleMinnesotaTexas Southern
30.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUSan Diego StVirginia Tech
29.9%
0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSMUSan Diego St
29.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
29.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia
29.1%
0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSMUTexas Southern
28.6%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaStanfordTexas Southern
27.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUSan Diego StVirginia
27.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
26.9%
0.2%
LouisvilleMinnesotaNorth CarolinaSan Diego St
25.6%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSMUTexas Southern
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaStanfordTexas Southern
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleMinnesotaSan Diego St
24.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSMUTexas Southern
23.8%
<0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSMUSan Diego St
23.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMinnesotaTexas Southern
22.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaTexas SouthernVirginia Tech
21.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSMUSan Diego StTexas Southern
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StTexas SouthernVirginia
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSMUSan Diego StTexas Southern
19.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSMUTexas Southern
18.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaSMUSan Diego St
16.0%
0.3%
MinnesotaSMUSan Diego StStanford
16.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNorth CarolinaTexas Southern
11.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StStanfordVirginiaVirginia Tech
10.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSan Diego StStanfordVirginia
8.3%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSan Diego StVirginia Tech
8.3%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSMUSan Diego St
7.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNorth CarolinaSan Diego StStanford
5.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaNorth CarolinaStanford
4.9%
<0.1%
DukeSan Diego StVirginiaVirginia Tech
3.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaStanfordVirginiaVirginia Tech
2.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSMUSan Diego StStanford
2.8%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSan Diego StStanfordVirginia Tech
1.6%
<0.1%
SMUSan Diego StVirginiaVirginia Tech
1.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaStanfordVirginia Tech
1.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleSMUSan Diego St
1.5%
0.3%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaNorth CarolinaVirginia
1.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaSMUStanfordVirginia Tech
1.0%
0.1%
DukeMinnesotaSMUVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMinnesotaStanford
0.9%
0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeMinnesotaVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.1%
MinnesotaNorth CarolinaSMUVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.1%
DukeLouisvilleMinnesotaVirginia
0.8%
0.1%
Boston CollegeDukeMinnesotaSMU
0.7%
0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaVirginiaVirginia Tech
0.7%
0.1%
Boston CollegeMinnesotaSMUVirginia
0.7%
0.1%
LouisvilleMinnesotaStanfordVirginia Tech
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CaliforniaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com