VanderbiltCommodores

1-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCharleston SouthernCHSO	W45-3
2	9/06	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:32%
3	9/13	@South CarolinaSC	Win prob:16%
4	9/20	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:86%
5	9/27	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:68%
6	10/04	@AlabamaALA	Win prob:14%
8	10/18	vsLSULSU	Win prob:26%
9	10/25	vsMissouriMIZ	Win prob:38%
10	11/01	@TexasTEX	Win prob:8%
11	11/08	vsAuburnAUB	Win prob:42%
13	11/22	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:56%
14	11/29	@TennesseeTENN	Win prob:11%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	0%
7-1	0.0%	85.0%
6-2	0.3%	28.4%
5-3	2.1%	0.3%
4-4	9.4%	0%
3-5	23.7%	0%
2-6	33.5%	0%
1-7	24.1%	0%
0-8	7.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

70.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

0.0%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
South FloridaUSF@FloridaFLA	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
MichiganMICH@OklahomaOU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@LSULSU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@ArkansasARK	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Austin PeayAPSU@GeorgiaUGA	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
South Carolina StateSCST@South CarolinaSC	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
San José StateSJSU@TexasTEX	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Ball StateBALL@AuburnAUB	0.0% (-0.1%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@Texas A&MTA&M	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@Virginia TechVT	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
East Tennessee StateETSU@TennesseeTENN	0.1% (-0.1%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@AlabamaALA	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Mississippi StateMSST	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
Ole MissMISS@KentuckyUK	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.1%)
KansasKU@MissouriMIZ	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

29.6%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

33.3%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

9.4%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com