Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:76% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.4% | 96.8% |
| 6-2 | 30.6% | 41.0% |
| 5-3 | 27.6% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.3% (+0.3%) | 34.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.1% (-0.9%) | 35.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.6%) | 34.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.0%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.1%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.1% (+0.1%) | 34.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 35.2% (+0.2%) | 34.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.1% (+0.2%) | 34.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 35.3% (+0.3%) | 34.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.1%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.8% (-0.1%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.6% (-0.3%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.1%) | 35.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.1%) | 35.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.4% (-0.6%) | 35.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.3% (-0.7%) | 35.1% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%Any 1 loss
97.7%
7.4%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
1.7%
98.6%
0.2%
98.5%
0.3%
98.4%
0.5%
97.9%
0.7%
97.8%
0.9%
97.5%
<0.1%
95.8%
1.5%
94.5%
1.0%Any 2 losses
71.8%
19.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.4%99.0%
0.7%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
0.9%98.3%
0.2%98.3%
0.1%97.9%
0.4%97.7%
0.2%97.4%
0.3%97.4%
0.3%97.0%
<0.1%96.5%
1.1%96.3%
2.1%96.3%
0.2%95.3%
0.1%94.5%
1.5%94.1%
0.3%82.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%64.1%
0.1%63.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%55.7%
0.2%55.2%
<0.1%54.5%
0.1%53.2%
0.2%50.9%
0.3%50.3%
0.6%49.3%
0.4%46.8%
0.4%46.7%
0.2%45.0%
0.8%43.1%
0.5%42.6%
0.2%42.0%
0.3%41.9%
0.6%26.5%
0.7%26.2%
1.0%26.0%
1.3%Any 3 losses
41.7%
23.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
0.3%98.9%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%97.3%
0.2%97.2%
0.3%97.1%
0.4%96.3%
0.6%95.8%
0.2%95.5%
<0.1%94.8%
<0.1%94.7%
0.4%88.1%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%62.9%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.2%
0.4%59.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.3%
0.2%54.2%
<0.1%54.1%
0.2%53.5%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.7%
0.4%52.4%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.3%49.5%
0.1%49.2%
0.1%49.1%
0.3%48.9%
<0.1%48.0%
0.2%47.9%
0.9%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.7%
0.4%45.4%
0.3%45.4%
0.6%43.9%
0.2%43.8%
1.1%42.8%
0.7%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%39.2%
0.2%38.5%
0.7%37.5%
<0.1%35.4%
0.1%34.0%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.7%
1.3%26.5%
0.3%26.4%
1.0%25.9%
0.2%25.3%
0.2%24.2%
1.7%23.8%
0.4%22.3%
0.1%21.6%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.6%0.5%
0.6%Any 4 losses
22.4%
12.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%52.1%
0.1%51.9%
0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.7%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%49.0%
<0.1%46.4%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%44.9%
0.2%44.6%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.3%41.3%
0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.0%
0.2%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%27.3%
0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
0.5%26.1%
0.3%26.0%
<0.1%25.3%
0.4%25.0%
0.2%24.0%
0.3%22.9%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.5%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.7%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02