Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L26-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:61% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:17% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:15% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:14% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:1% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 96.3% |
| 6-2 | 2.3% | 42.3% |
| 5-3 | 9.8% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 23.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
96.2%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
47.6%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.2%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.2%29.6%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02