Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 2-0 | 22.4% | |
| T2 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-1 | 76.3% | |
| T2 |  LibertyLIB | 0-0 | 1-0 | 34.1% | |
| T2 |  DelawareDEL | 0-0 | 1-0 | 27.8% | |
| T2 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-0 | 14.4% | |
| T2 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 0-1 | 9.2% | |
| T2 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 6.6% | |
| T2 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3.8% | |
| T2 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2.2% | |
| T2 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1.8% | |
| T2 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.7% | |
| T2 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.7% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 76.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% (+0.7%) | 76.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.2% (+0.9%) | 76.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 76.2% (-0.1%) | 76.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 76.3% (-0.0%) | 76.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.2% (-0.1%) | 76.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.4% (+0.1%) | 76.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.0% (+0.7%) | 76.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 76.5% (+0.1%) | 76.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 76.4% (+0.1%) | 76.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.1% (-24.3%) | 84.6% (+8.3%) | |
| 76.5% (+0.1%) | 76.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.0% | 70.2% | 8.8% | - | 76.3% |
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 98.1% | 59.8% | 6.3% | <0.1% | 34.1% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 98.4% | 60.5% | 6.0% | - | 27.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 97.2% | 53.5% | 5.1% | <0.1% | 22.4% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 96.3% | 55.1% | 5.4% | - | 14.4% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 94.9% | 50.5% | 4.7% | <0.1% | 9.2% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 98.6% | 61.8% | 6.1% | - | 6.6% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 98.6% | 55.1% | 5.0% | - | 3.8% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 96.1% | 52.3% | 4.5% | - | 2.2% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 94.0% | 50.1% | 4.6% | - | 1.8% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 96.5% | 60.0% | 6.2% | - | 0.7% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 98.2% | 65.4% | 6.5% | - | 0.7% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 19.6% | 36.2% | 28.3% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5 |
| LibertyLIB(0-0) | 2.2% | 13.3% | 28.2% | 30.2% | 18.3% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| DelawareDEL(0-0) | 1.4% | 9.8% | 24.6% | 30.9% | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 0.9% | 7.5% | 23.4% | 33.2% | 24.1% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | - | 4.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.5% | 14.7% | 25.9% | 27.6% | 18.0% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.5% | 22.6% | 28.2% | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 17.5% | 27.7% | 26.5% | 15.1% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 4.6% | 16.6% | 29.5% | 28.9% | 15.1% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 3.5 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 11.1% | 24.1% | 30.6% | 21.8% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 3.1 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.3% | 21.5% | 30.2% | 24.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 3.0 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 12.5% | 25.6% | 31.3% | 20.7% | 5.6% | 2.3 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 12.2% | 25.4% | 31.6% | 21.0% | 5.7% | 2.3 |
Data from 2025-09-02