Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:97% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:83% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:59% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:93% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:13% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.2% | 99.6% |
| 8-1 | 11.9% | 55.6% |
| 7-2 | 31.7% | 4.6% |
| 6-3 | 33.2% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (+0.5%) | 9.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (+1.1%) | 9.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (+0.1%) | 9.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (+0.4%) | 9.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.1%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (+0.1%) | 9.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.2%) | 9.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.8% (-0.5%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.0%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.0%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.1%) | 9.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (+0.1%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
99.6%
1.1%Any 1 loss
56.0%
10.5%100.0%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%75.3%
0.3%75.1%
0.2%71.8%
0.7%71.5%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.0%
1.9%49.2%
6.7%Any 2 losses
7.3%
29.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.6%
0.2%51.1%
0.8%49.5%
0.2%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%11.9%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.5%
0.5%7.1%
0.5%7.0%
0.4%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
1.4%6.4%
1.7%6.4%
0.2%6.0%
1.4%5.4%
1.3%5.0%
4.6%4.8%
0.5%4.6%
0.5%2.7%
13.0%Any 3 losses
5.3%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.7%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
0.5%6.7%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%2.8%
1.5%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Any 4 losses
1.6%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02