Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:28% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:64% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:65% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:42% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 9.8% | 98.4% |
| 6-2 | 24.6% | 60.5% |
| 5-3 | 30.9% | 6.0% |
| 4-4 | 22.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.7% (+0.9%) | 27.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.4% (-1.5%) | 27.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.8% (-0.1%) | 28.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.2% (+0.4%) | 27.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.2% (+0.4%) | 27.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 27.5% (-0.3%) | 27.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 27.6% (-0.2%) | 27.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.2% (+0.4%) | 27.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.6% (-0.2%) | 28.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 27.3% (-0.5%) | 28.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 27.4% (-0.4%) | 27.9% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
99.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.1%
0.4%96.9%
0.2%Any 2 losses
84.5%
6.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
1.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.9%
0.5%97.5%
0.2%97.3%
0.3%97.2%
0.2%97.0%
0.2%96.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%79.4%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.1%
0.2%65.9%
0.1%65.9%
<0.1%64.2%
0.3%62.2%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.6%
0.2%44.9%
0.2%43.1%
0.6%42.6%
0.1%Any 3 losses
59.5%
16.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.5%
0.4%98.4%
0.2%98.4%
0.3%98.3%
0.1%97.5%
0.9%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
0.6%93.3%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%89.1%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%79.8%
0.2%79.5%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%76.0%
0.2%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
0.1%74.2%
0.6%73.9%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.8%
0.3%71.6%
0.7%70.6%
<0.1%69.3%
0.1%69.1%
0.2%68.6%
0.2%67.9%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.6%
0.3%65.9%
0.1%63.9%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%56.7%
0.5%56.3%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.6%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%51.2%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
0.1%46.1%
0.3%44.9%
0.6%43.7%
0.4%42.4%
0.4%42.3%
1.6%41.5%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
0.4%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.2%2.2%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
34.1%
22.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.5%
0.5%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.1%81.1%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.5%
0.1%77.1%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
0.4%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.7%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.3%74.6%
0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.9%
0.4%70.9%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.5%
0.6%69.4%
0.3%69.2%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.0%
0.2%63.4%
0.2%61.3%
0.4%59.5%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.3%
0.3%54.8%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.1%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.1%47.5%
0.1%47.2%
0.2%45.7%
1.2%45.0%
0.2%44.3%
0.4%42.8%
0.3%42.5%
0.9%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
0.4%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.4%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.9%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
1.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.6%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
0.9%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02