Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:25% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:40% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:45% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.3% | 98.1% |
| 6-2 | 28.2% | 59.8% |
| 5-3 | 30.2% | 6.3% |
| 4-4 | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% (-0.3%) | 34.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 33.8% (-0.3%) | 34.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 33.9% (-0.1%) | 34.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 33.6% (-0.5%) | 34.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.7% (-0.4%) | 34.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.8% (-0.3%) | 34.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.3% (-0.8%) | 34.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 33.8% (-0.3%) | 34.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.2% (+0.1%) | 34.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 59.7% (+25.6%) | 25.4% (-8.7%) | |
| 34.0% (-0.0%) | 34.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
98.9%
1.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%97.9%
0.1%97.2%
0.6%96.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
86.6%
7.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%98.6%
0.2%98.5%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%97.4%
0.6%97.4%
0.9%96.9%
0.2%96.7%
0.7%93.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%74.1%
0.2%73.6%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.5%
0.1%63.6%
0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%58.5%
0.1%58.1%
0.3%52.5%
0.4%48.5%
<0.1%34.4%
0.4%Any 3 losses
64.5%
17.7%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%97.8%
0.7%97.7%
0.2%97.7%
0.2%97.7%
0.2%97.2%
0.3%96.9%
1.0%96.7%
0.9%95.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.4%
0.2%77.2%
0.3%77.1%
<0.1%76.2%
0.2%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
0.1%73.4%
0.2%73.1%
<0.1%72.5%
0.1%71.1%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%68.5%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.8%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.8%
0.1%65.1%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
0.4%63.0%
<0.1%62.3%
0.4%62.2%
0.6%62.1%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%58.9%
0.2%58.0%
<0.1%56.8%
0.5%56.5%
0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.9%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
0.2%54.9%
<0.1%54.7%
0.5%54.7%
0.1%52.3%
0.6%51.7%
0.1%51.0%
<0.1%50.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
0.4%39.0%
0.5%35.0%
0.6%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.3%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.7%
0.3%1.4%
0.1%Any 4 losses
42.1%
23.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%97.4%
0.3%96.7%
1.2%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%79.2%
0.3%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.8%
0.1%72.8%
0.3%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%70.2%
0.1%70.1%
0.2%69.2%
0.1%69.2%
0.2%68.9%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%67.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.2%66.0%
0.4%65.4%
0.6%64.3%
<0.1%63.8%
0.1%63.7%
0.7%63.4%
0.2%63.1%
0.2%63.0%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%61.1%
0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.2%58.9%
0.3%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%55.8%
0.8%54.8%
0.2%54.4%
0.3%53.7%
0.7%52.7%
0.2%51.6%
<0.1%50.7%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
0.5%41.0%
0.5%40.6%
<0.1%40.6%
0.6%40.0%
<0.1%38.0%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.4%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.9%
0.4%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.4%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.3%
0.3%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
0.4%1.6%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02