Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:72% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:84% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.0% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 8.4% | 74.2% |
| 6-3 | 19.2% | 10.1% |
| 5-4 | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 10.6% (+0.2%) | 10.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.0%) | 10.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.3% (-0.1%) | 10.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.5% (+0.2%) | 10.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.3%) | 10.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.4%) | 10.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.3% (-0.1%) | 10.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.0%) | 10.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.1% (+0.7%) | 10.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.5% (+0.1%) | 10.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (+0.9%) | 10.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.2% (-0.2%) | 10.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.0%) | 10.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.3% (-0.0%) | 10.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.6% (+0.2%) | 10.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
99.5%
1.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.7%
0.1%Any 2 losses
76.9%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%87.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
0.1%82.4%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.1%
0.2%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
0.2%77.5%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.8%
0.5%75.7%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
0.2%73.7%
0.3%73.5%
0.2%73.1%
0.3%72.9%
<0.1%71.3%
0.5%70.3%
0.2%69.4%
0.1%69.3%
0.2%69.2%
0.1%68.2%
0.4%65.6%
0.2%65.6%
<0.1%58.0%
0.1%Any 3 losses
23.7%
14.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.7%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.5%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.5%
0.2%71.3%
0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%21.4%
0.1%20.4%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%17.5%
0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%16.3%
<0.1%16.2%
0.2%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.8%
0.3%13.7%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.7%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.3%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
0.2%10.8%
0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.0%
0.2%9.9%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%7.9%
0.3%7.8%
0.4%7.8%
0.8%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.5%7.3%
0.4%7.3%
0.7%7.2%
0.3%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
0.4%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
0.4%5.6%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.2%
0.2%4.6%
0.1%4.6%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02