Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:3% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:47% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 96.1% |
| 6-2 | 2.6% | 52.3% |
| 5-3 | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| 4-4 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 21.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (-0.4%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (+0.7%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.1%) | 2.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.1%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.1%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.1%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.1%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
92.2%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
56.6%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%92.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
0.1%55.0%
0.1%53.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%36.6%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02