LSU

LSUTigers

1-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

LSUSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
@ClemsonCLEM
W17-10
29/06
vsLouisiana TechLT
Win prob:90%
39/13
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:65%
49/20
vsSE LouisianaSELA
Win prob:90%
59/27
@MississippiMISS
Win prob:18%
710/11
vsSouth CarolinaSC
Win prob:58%
810/18
@VanderbiltVAN
Win prob:74%
910/25
vsTexas A&MTA&M
Win prob:62%
1111/08
@AlabamaALA
Win prob:39%
1211/15
vsArkansasARK
Win prob:77%
1311/22
vsWKUWKU
Win prob:88%
1411/29
@OklahomaOU
Win prob:54%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.5%
100.0%
7-1
4.6%
75.5%
6-2
16.4%
14.3%
5-3
28.1%
0.1%
4-4
27.4%
0%
3-5
16.4%
0%
2-6
5.4%
0%
1-7
1.0%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely LSU CCG Opponents

if LSU makes the CCG

GeorgiaGeorgia
65.3%
Ole MissMississippi
17.5%
TexasTexas
9.3%
TennesseeTennessee
5.8%
AlabamaAlabama
2.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUThis Week's Impact

Game
LSUCCG OddsAway
LSUCCG OddsHome
South FloridaUSF@FloridaFLA
6.3%
(-0.0%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
MichiganMICH@OklahomaOU
6.3%
(-0.0%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@LSULSU
6.6%
(+0.3%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@ArkansasARK
6.6%
(+0.2%)		6.3%
(-0.1%)
Austin PeayAPSU@GeorgiaUGA
6.5%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
South Carolina StateSCST@South CarolinaSC
6.5%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
San Jose StSJSU@TexasTEX
6.1%
(-0.3%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
Ball StBALL@AuburnAUB
6.4%
(+0.0%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@Texas A&MTA&M
6.6%
(+0.2%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@Virginia TechVT
6.3%
(-0.0%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
East Tennessee StateETSU@TennesseeTENN
6.2%
(-0.1%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
ULMULM@AlabamaALA
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
Arizona StASU@Mississippi StMSST
6.4%
(+0.0%)		6.3%
(-0.1%)
MississippiMISS@KentuckyUK
6.2%
(-0.1%)		7.6%
(+1.2%)
KansasKU@MissouriMIZ
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
LSU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%
Any 1 loss
76.0%
3.5%
SE Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
WKU
100.0%
<0.1%
South Carolina
90.0%
0.2%
Alabama
83.5%
0.6%
Vanderbilt
82.6%
0.1%
Texas A&M
80.5%
0.2%
Oklahoma
72.0%
0.3%
Florida
71.6%
0.2%
Mississippi
69.7%
1.6%
Arkansas
68.7%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
20.1%
12.8%
Louisiana TechSE Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechVanderbilt
100.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth Carolina
93.9%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth Carolina
93.1%
<0.1%
South CarolinaWKU
88.9%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaTexas A&M
88.2%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTexas A&M
85.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE Louisiana
83.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasWKU
83.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaWKU
82.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE Louisiana
82.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE Louisiana
80.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaWKU
79.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahoma
79.2%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaVanderbilt
76.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
FloridaWKU
73.7%
<0.1%
VanderbiltWKU
72.7%
<0.1%
MississippiWKU
72.6%
0.2%
MississippiSE Louisiana
71.9%
0.2%
Louisiana TechMississippi
70.6%
0.2%
Texas A&MWKU
68.8%
<0.1%
FloridaSE Louisiana
68.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana Tech
54.5%
<0.1%
South CarolinaVanderbilt
36.4%
0.1%
ArkansasVanderbilt
34.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaVanderbilt
28.5%
0.2%
Texas A&MVanderbilt
26.9%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTexas A&M
24.9%
0.2%
ArkansasOklahoma
24.1%
0.1%
FloridaVanderbilt
22.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasSouth Carolina
21.1%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth Carolina
20.2%
0.2%
AlabamaSouth Carolina
20.0%
0.4%
OklahomaTexas A&M
19.7%
0.2%
AlabamaArkansas
19.5%
0.1%
ArkansasTexas A&M
19.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaTexas A&M
18.4%
0.3%
MississippiVanderbilt
18.2%
0.6%
OklahomaVanderbilt
16.3%
0.1%
ArkansasFlorida
15.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahoma
14.9%
0.5%
MississippiSouth Carolina
14.0%
1.2%
MississippiTexas A&M
13.7%
1.0%
FloridaSouth Carolina
13.4%
0.1%
FloridaOklahoma
13.3%
0.2%
FloridaTexas A&M
13.2%
0.1%
AlabamaMississippi
12.0%
2.6%
AlabamaFlorida
11.2%
0.3%
ArkansasMississippi
11.0%
0.5%
MississippiOklahoma
10.7%
1.4%
FloridaMississippi
9.2%
0.9%
Any 3 losses
14.1%
4.9%
SE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSE LouisianaVanderbilt
100.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechVanderbiltWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth CarolinaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaSE Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSE LouisianaTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaWKU
88.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaWKU
86.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechSE Louisiana
85.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechSE Louisiana
80.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSE Louisiana
71.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiWKU
69.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechVanderbilt
66.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaLouisiana Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechVanderbilt
50.0%
<0.1%
Texas A&MVanderbiltWKU
45.5%
<0.1%
South CarolinaVanderbiltWKU
40.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaSouth Carolina
39.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTexas A&MVanderbilt
33.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaVanderbilt
33.3%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
31.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechTexas A&M
30.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas A&MWKU
29.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaSE Louisiana
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasWKU
28.6%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechSouth Carolina
28.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
28.6%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
28.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
27.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechVanderbilt
27.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaTexas A&MWKU
27.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
26.7%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
26.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaVanderbiltWKU
25.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechOklahoma
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
24.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaVanderbilt
23.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechSouth Carolina
23.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiTexas A&M
21.7%
0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaSE Louisiana
20.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasVanderbiltWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
19.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasLouisiana Tech
18.8%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaTexas A&M
18.4%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaWKU
18.2%
<0.1%
MississippiVanderbiltWKU
18.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiVanderbilt
17.1%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaVanderbilt
16.9%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
16.7%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth CarolinaWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaVanderbiltWKU
15.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth CarolinaVanderbilt
15.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechSouth Carolina
15.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexas A&MWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaTexas A&MVanderbilt
14.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaTexas A&M
14.3%
<0.1%
FloridaVanderbiltWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaSE Louisiana
13.8%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaWKU
13.3%
<0.1%
MississippiTexas A&MWKU
13.0%
0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
12.9%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisiana Tech
12.8%
<0.1%
MississippiSouth CarolinaWKU
12.8%
0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSouth Carolina
12.7%
0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechTexas A&M
12.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE Louisiana
11.9%
0.3%
SE LouisianaSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
11.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiSE Louisiana
11.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechMississippi
11.5%
0.3%
AlabamaMississippiWKU
11.5%
0.4%
Louisiana TechMississippiOklahoma
11.3%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaSE Louisiana
11.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaSE Louisiana
11.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiWKU
10.5%
0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaWKU
10.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechOklahoma
10.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechOklahoma
9.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaWKU
9.6%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaWKU
9.2%
0.2%
ArkansasLouisiana TechMississippi
8.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaWKU
8.9%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
8.3%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaSE Louisiana
8.1%
0.2%
South CarolinaTexas A&MWKU
7.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiWKU
7.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasSE Louisiana
7.1%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas A&MWKU
6.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechMississippi
5.2%
0.1%
FloridaMississippiSE Louisiana
4.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaVanderbilt
1.2%
0.2%
FloridaSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
1.0%
0.1%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaVanderbilt
0.7%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaTexas A&M
0.5%
0.2%
Any 4 losses
11.7%
0.7%
ArkansasLouisiana TechSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaVanderbiltWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechOklahomaWKU
60.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechVanderbiltWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechOklahomaSE Louisiana
50.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechSE LouisianaTexas A&M
40.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechOklahomaSE Louisiana
40.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSE LouisianaTexas A&M
37.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
28.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechOklahomaTexas A&M
25.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaTexas A&MWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechTexas A&MWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechSouth CarolinaWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaVanderbiltWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaSE LouisianaWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechMississippiWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechMississippiSE Louisiana
19.5%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechMississippiSE Louisiana
18.2%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiOklahomaWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasLouisiana TechMississippiSE Louisiana
16.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasLouisiana TechWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSouth CarolinaWKU
15.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOklahomaSouth CarolinaWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiTexas A&MWKU
13.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiOklahomaSE Louisiana
12.5%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMississippiSE LouisianaVanderbilt
12.5%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
11.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisiana TechMississippiWKU
10.3%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
9.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
8.3%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
6.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisiana TechMississippiWKU
6.3%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
5.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
4.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE LouisianaVanderbilt
1.0%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisiana TechMississippi
0.7%
0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com