Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L3-23 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W42-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:87% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:1% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:11% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:4% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:21% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-2 | 0% | 66.7% |
| 6-3 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 39.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 27.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 6.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
Washington
Oregon
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Michigan
USC
Notre DameCCG: 0.0% • Scenario: 5.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaWashingtonOregonWisconsinMichiganUSCNotre DameCCG: 0.0% • Scenario: 13.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14