Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:99% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:25% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:26% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 93.6% |
| 6-2 | 2.2% | 36.7% |
| 5-3 | 8.7% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 24.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.8%) | 1.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.3%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.2%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MissouriOklahoma
Mississippi State
SE Louisiana
Sam Houston
Memphis
Georgia StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 60.5%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.9%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
93.5%
<0.1%
91.7%
<0.1%
88.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
36.8%
2.2%88.9%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.4%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%39.4%
0.2%36.2%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%33.7%
0.2%32.0%
<0.1%30.8%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
0.3%16.0%
0.2%16.0%
0.2%Any 3 losses
1.1%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.8%25.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14