Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-15 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:40% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:11% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 85.1% |
| 6-2 | 4.3% | 13.3% |
| 5-3 | 14.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+1.3%) | 0.3% (-0.9%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.2%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MissouriAuburn
SE Louisiana
UAB
Sam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AuburnCCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 39.5%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
84.9%
0.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.9%
<0.1%
96.4%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%
92.4%
<0.1%
88.3%
<0.1%
74.3%
0.2%
71.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
14.4%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%18.4%
0.2%17.1%
0.2%17.1%
0.5%15.9%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
0.8%7.2%
0.4%5.7%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
3.9%
1.6%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.6%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14