Nevada

NevadaWolf Pack

1-1 T3rd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Nevada's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

Nevada has a 16.7% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Nevada's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

NevadaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsWKUWKU
W49-14
29/12
vsMontana StateMTST
L7-20
39/19
@MTSUMTSU
Win prob:74%
49/26
vsAir ForceAF
Win prob:61%
610/10
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:79%
710/17
@North Dakota StNDSU
Win prob:24%
810/24
vsSan Jose StSJSU
Win prob:76%
910/31
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:11%
1011/06
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:33%
1111/14
@N IllinoisNIU
Win prob:81%
1211/21
vsHawaiiHAW
Win prob:68%
1311/28
@UNLVUNLV
Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.7%
100.0%
7-1
5.6%
98.8%
6-2
18.4%
50.9%
5-3
30.1%
3.5%
4-4
26.9%
0%
3-5
13.7%
0%
2-6
3.9%
0%
1-7
0.6%
0%
0-8
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Nevada CCG Opponents

if Nevada makes the CCG

NDSUNorth Dakota St
49.8%
UNMNew Mexico
38.2%
UNLVUNLV
7.6%
AFAir Force
2.1%
HAWHawaii
1.1%
SJSUSan Jose St
1.1%
WYOWyoming
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaThis Week's Impact

Game
NevadaCCG OddsAway Wins
NevadaCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
16.6%
(-0.1%)		16.7%
(+0.1%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
16.2%
(-0.4%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
16.7%
(+0.0%)		16.6%
(-0.1%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
16.6%
(-0.1%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
17.1%
(+0.4%)		16.7%
(-0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
16.7%
(+0.0%)		16.8%
(+0.1%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
16.6%
(-0.0%)		16.7%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Nevada CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.4%
0.9%
UCLA
100.0%
0.4%
North Dakota St
100.0%
0.2%
Hawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air Force
100.0%
<0.1%
San Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
N Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
UNLV
98.7%
<0.1%
New Mexico
95.9%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
85.9%
5.6%
MTSUUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUCLA
100.0%
0.2%
UCLAUTEP
100.0%
0.1%
HawaiiUCLA
100.0%
0.2%
HawaiiMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUCLA
100.0%
0.1%
MTSUSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUCLA
100.0%
1.4%
San Jose StUCLA
99.9%
0.1%
Air ForceUCLA
99.5%
0.3%
UCLAUNLV
98.9%
0.6%
MTSUUNLV
98.2%
<0.1%
New MexicoUCLA
96.0%
0.9%
MTSUNew Mexico
95.1%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUTEP
91.4%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSan Jose St
91.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiUTEP
89.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiN Illinois
89.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiSan Jose St
87.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota St
82.3%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUTEP
81.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaii
77.8%
<0.1%
North Dakota StSan Jose St
77.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceN Illinois
75.3%
<0.1%
San Jose StUTEP
75.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUTEP
72.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota St
71.4%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLV
70.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose St
68.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceUTEP
68.4%
<0.1%
San Jose StUNLV
65.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLV
62.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota St
61.7%
0.1%
New MexicoSan Jose St
59.5%
<0.1%
New MexicoUTEP
57.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew Mexico
56.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLV
52.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew Mexico
51.7%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLV
51.4%
0.3%
Air ForceNew Mexico
41.9%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLV
31.5%
0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota St
28.4%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
49.4%
15.8%
MTSUNorth Dakota StUCLA
100.0%
0.5%
Air ForceMTSUUCLA
100.0%
0.1%
HawaiiMTSUUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUCLAUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUSan Jose StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUN IllinoisUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUN IllinoisUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUSan Jose StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUCLAUNLV
98.8%
0.2%
MTSUNew MexicoUCLA
96.0%
0.3%
N IllinoisUCLAUTEP
91.6%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSan Jose StUCLA
91.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceMTSUUTEP
90.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUSan Jose St
87.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUCLA
87.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiUCLAUTEP
86.2%
<0.1%
San Jose StUCLAUTEP
86.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiSan Jose StUCLA
84.8%
<0.1%
MTSUN IllinoisSan Jose St
84.2%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth Dakota StUTEP
82.7%
<0.1%
MTSUN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
82.2%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUCLAUTEP
81.6%
0.4%
Air ForceHawaiiMTSU
81.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUCLA
80.1%
0.3%
Air ForceMTSUN Illinois
79.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUN Illinois
79.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StSan Jose StUCLA
78.0%
0.4%
HawaiiMTSUUTEP
77.8%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
77.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StUCLA
77.1%
<0.1%
MTSUN IllinoisUNLV
76.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceUCLAUTEP
76.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUCLA
74.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUCLA
73.4%
0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUCLA
72.8%
0.6%
HawaiiMTSUNorth Dakota St
72.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUCLAUNLV
69.8%
0.1%
San Jose StUCLAUNLV
68.5%
0.2%
UCLAUNLVUTEP
68.1%
0.2%
MTSUUNLVUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMTSUSan Jose St
64.9%
<0.1%
MTSUNew MexicoSan Jose St
64.1%
<0.1%
MTSUSan Jose StUNLV
63.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceMTSUNorth Dakota St
63.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUCLA
63.1%
0.9%
HawaiiUCLAUNLV
62.7%
0.3%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUCLA
59.8%
0.2%
MTSUN IllinoisNew Mexico
59.3%
<0.1%
New MexicoUCLAUTEP
59.2%
0.2%
MTSUNew MexicoUTEP
59.1%
<0.1%
New MexicoSan Jose StUCLA
57.9%
0.3%
HawaiiMTSUUNLV
56.3%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth Dakota StUNLV
53.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceUCLAUNLV
52.4%
0.4%
HawaiiMTSUNew Mexico
52.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUCLAUNLV
50.7%
1.9%
HawaiiNew MexicoUCLA
50.3%
0.4%
Air ForceMTSUUNLV
45.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceMTSUNew Mexico
44.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUCLA
42.6%
0.6%
New MexicoUCLAUNLV
30.7%
1.3%
MTSUNew MexicoUNLV
29.1%
<0.1%
MTSUNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
28.8%
0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUCLA
28.6%
2.8%
HawaiiN IllinoisUTEP
23.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUTEP
23.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiSan Jose StUTEP
23.1%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSan Jose StUTEP
21.4%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
18.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiN Illinois
16.3%
<0.1%
North Dakota StSan Jose StUTEP
14.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUTEP
14.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
13.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
12.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUTEP
12.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisSan Jose St
11.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUTEP
10.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
10.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StUTEP
9.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUTEP
9.1%
<0.1%
San Jose StUNLVUTEP
8.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUTEP
8.3%
<0.1%
New MexicoSan Jose StUTEP
8.1%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVUTEP
7.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUTEP
7.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
7.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiSan Jose St
7.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoSan Jose St
7.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUNLV
6.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNew Mexico
6.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNorth Dakota St
6.8%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVUTEP
6.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUTEP
6.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiSan Jose StUNLV
5.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUNLV
5.5%
<0.1%
North Dakota StSan Jose StUNLV
5.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUNLV
5.0%
0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoSan Jose St
4.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNew Mexico
4.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVUTEP
4.4%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUTEP
4.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVUTEP
4.1%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
4.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisSan Jose St
3.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoSan Jose St
3.8%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSan Jose StUNLV
3.6%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUTEP
3.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StUNLV
3.4%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
3.0%
0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNew Mexico
2.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUNLV
2.0%
0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUNLV
1.9%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUNLV
1.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUNLV
1.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
1.3%
0.2%
New MexicoSan Jose StUNLV
1.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
1.1%
0.2%
HawaiiNew MexicoUNLV
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com