Nevada

NevadaWolf Pack

3-5 6th (2-2) in MWC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Nevada's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

Nevada has a 1.1% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Nevada's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What is the biggest game this week for Nevada's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?

Nevada's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating New Mexico would put its Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 6.7%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

NevadaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsWKUWKU
W49-14
29/12
vsMontana StateMTST
L7-20
39/19
@MTSUMTSU
L20-27
49/26
vsAir ForceAF
L33-36
610/10
@UTEPUTEP
W30-13
710/17
@North Dakota StNDSU
L17-31
810/24
vsSan Jose StSJSU
W28-13
910/31
@UCLAUCLA
L0-27
1011/06
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:16%
1111/14
@N IllinoisNIU
Win prob:82%
1211/21
vsHawaiiHAW
Win prob:63%
1311/28
@UNLVUNLV
Win prob:27%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
2.2%
48.5%
5-3
19.3%
0.1%
4-4
46.0%
0%
3-5
28.2%
0%
2-6
4.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Nevada CCG Opponents

if Nevada makes the CCG

UNMNew Mexico
65.1%
NDSUNorth Dakota St
17.4%
AFAir Force
9.2%
UNLVUNLV
7.3%
WYOWyoming
0.9%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaThis Week's Impact

Game
NevadaCCG OddsAway Wins
NevadaCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
New MexicoUNM@NevadaNEV
0.0%
(-1.1%)		6.7%
(+5.6%)
Sat, Nov 7
N IllinoisNIU@San Jose StSJSU
1.1%
(-0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
HawaiiHAW@UTEPUTEP
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(-0.0%)
WyomingWYO@UNLVUNLV
0.7%
(-0.4%)		1.2%
(+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Nevada

UTEPUTEPNevadaNevadaN IllinoisNorthern IllinoisUNLVUNLV

CCG: 8.2% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Nevada

NevadaNevada

CCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 16.0%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

NevadaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com