NevadaWolf Pack
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Nevada's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Nevada has a 6.6% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Nevada's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:19% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:34% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 4.4% | 79.8% |
| 5-3 | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| 4-4 | 25.2% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.1%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (+0.3%) | 6.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
91.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
67.0%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.3%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
43.2%
5.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.1%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.6%
0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%55.6%
0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26