ArmyBlack Knights
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Army's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Army has a 10.3% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Army's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 9/25 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/23 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 12/12 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.2% | 98.4% |
| 7-2 | 5.7% | 72.4% |
| 6-3 | 14.7% | 29.5% |
| 5-4 | 24.0% | 2.6% |
| 4-5 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 10.2% (-0.1%) | 10.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
79.8%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.0%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
48.8%
6.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
<0.1%57.0%
<0.1%56.9%
0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.7%
0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.7%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
29.5%
10.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.3%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.2%
0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.9%
0.1%50.7%
0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26