ArmyBlack Knights
1-1 T3rd (0-1) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Army's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Army has a 7.4% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Army's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W59-3 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L24-28 | |
| 4 | 9/25 | Win prob:52% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:54% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/23 | Win prob:44% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 15 | 12/12 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 97.3% |
| 7-2 | 6.4% | 58.7% |
| 6-3 | 18.4% | 13.7% |
| 5-4 | 28.4% | 0.7% |
| 4-5 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.5% (+0.1%) | 7.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (-0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.3% (-0.1%) | ||
| 7.3% (-0.0%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.3% (-0.1%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.1%) | 7.4% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.5%
0.3%Any 1 loss
64.4%
2.8%
97.6%
0.2%
97.2%
0.2%
97.0%
0.3%
68.8%
0.1%
65.2%
<0.1%
62.2%
0.3%
56.7%
0.4%
54.4%
0.2%
47.4%
0.7%
46.1%
0.3%Any 2 losses
28.9%
10.0%97.8%
0.1%97.2%
0.2%96.9%
0.1%70.5%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%67.0%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%62.9%
0.2%62.2%
<0.1%62.1%
0.3%58.0%
0.2%57.1%
0.3%56.5%
0.4%55.2%
<0.1%54.1%
0.1%52.9%
0.2%50.3%
0.6%49.0%
0.3%48.4%
0.5%47.3%
0.3%47.3%
0.1%46.2%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.2%2.7%
0.4%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.0%
0.6%1.9%
0.3%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
0.9%1.6%
0.4%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.4%1.0%
0.7%Any 3 losses
13.6%
13.6%98.0%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.7%
0.1%63.3%
0.2%62.7%
<0.1%62.4%
0.1%60.3%
<0.1%57.6%
0.2%56.5%
0.1%56.5%
0.3%55.4%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%52.7%
0.1%49.7%
0.3%49.2%
0.4%49.1%
0.2%48.4%
0.1%46.4%
0.2%46.1%
0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.3%2.4%
0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.5%2.0%
0.6%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.7%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
0.5%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.4%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17