Air ForceFalcons
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Air Force's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Air Force has a 21.6% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 10/23 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 11/20 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.1% | 98.2% |
| 6-2 | 17.7% | 68.5% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 9.1% |
| 4-4 | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 21.5% (-0.1%) | 21.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.6% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.6% (+1.0%) | 21.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.6%) | 22.1% (+0.5%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.1%97.9%
0.1%Any 2 losses
89.4%
4.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%98.0%
0.2%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
0.2%96.6%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%84.8%
0.1%84.7%
<0.1%82.8%
0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%76.7%
0.1%75.5%
<0.1%74.0%
0.1%72.8%
0.1%72.0%
0.1%71.0%
0.1%65.6%
<0.1%53.1%
0.3%Any 3 losses
63.4%
11.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.4%
0.3%98.1%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.6%
0.1%97.5%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.3%
0.3%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%78.1%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
0.2%76.3%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
0.2%73.9%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.7%
0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.9%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.2%
0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.5%
0.2%70.2%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
0.1%64.7%
0.2%64.2%
0.1%62.3%
0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
0.1%46.7%
0.4%46.2%
0.4%43.8%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.0%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
36.8%
17.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.8%
0.2%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
0.2%71.9%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.1%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%67.4%
0.3%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%66.3%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.0%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
0.2%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.1%
0.2%58.7%
0.3%56.3%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.5%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.7%
0.2%42.1%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
0.5%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.3%5.7%
0.1%5.5%
0.3%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.3%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%4.9%
0.3%4.8%
0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26