Air ForceFalcons
1-1 T3rd (0-1) in MWC
Data from 2026-09-19
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Air Force's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Air Force has a 8.1% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W34-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L32-38 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:57% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:56% | |
| 8 | 10/23 | Win prob:77% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2026-09-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 12.5% | 47.2% |
| 5-3 | 30.7% | 1.9% |
| 4-4 | 32.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-19
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-19
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 8.1% (+0.0%) | 8.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.5% (-0.6%) | 8.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 8.1% (-0.0%) | 8.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 8.1% (+0.1%) | 8.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 8.5% (+0.4%) | 8.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 8.1% (+0.0%) | 7.8% (-0.3%) | ||
| 8.1% (-0.0%) | 8.1% (+0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
63.6%
2.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.5%
99.9%
0.2%
86.2%
<0.1%
85.2%
<0.1%
82.8%
<0.1%
81.7%
<0.1%
60.6%
0.3%
47.9%
0.2%
36.4%
1.0%Any 2 losses
34.5%
9.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.3%84.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.6%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.1%82.3%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.2%
<0.1%61.8%
0.7%60.6%
0.2%60.2%
0.1%52.3%
<0.1%49.2%
0.4%48.4%
0.1%35.5%
2.0%35.3%
0.4%35.1%
0.7%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%2.9%
0.3%2.7%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%0.6%
1.5%0.6%
0.3%Any 3 losses
15.8%
15.4%99.9%
0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.6%
0.1%84.5%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.5%
0.1%78.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%59.8%
0.3%59.2%
0.5%58.0%
0.1%48.9%
<0.1%47.0%
0.3%46.9%
0.1%33.2%
0.3%33.2%
0.7%33.1%
1.5%22.7%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.0%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.0%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.5%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
0.6%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.7%2.1%
0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.5%0.6%
1.1%0.6%
3.1%0.6%
0.5%Data from 2026-09-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-19