Air ForceFalcons
6-2 5th (3-2) in MWC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Air Force's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Air Force has a 6.6% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Air Force need to do to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 51.6%; even one more loss drops that to 12.3%.
What is the biggest game this week for Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for Air Force's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Nevada win would boost them to 10.8%, while a New Mexico win would leave them at 5.8%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W34-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L32-38 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W36-33 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W14-9 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W28-7 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/23 | L14-28 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W35-26 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 11.8% | 51.4% |
| 5-3 | 70.5% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 5.8% (-0.8%) | 10.8% (+4.3%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 6.7% (+0.1%) | 6.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 6.6% (+0.0%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 6.5% (-0.1%) | 6.9% (+0.3%) | ||
| 3.2% (-3.4%) | 7.2% (+0.6%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
UTEP
Nevada
San José State
UNLVCCG: 14.0% • Scenario: 1.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaUNLVCCG: 11.5% • Scenario: 13.6%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02