WyomingCowboys
5-3 2nd (4-1) in MWC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Wyoming's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Wyoming has a 8.0% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Wyoming's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Wyoming need to do to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Wyoming's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 47.2%.
What is the biggest game this week for Wyoming's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?
Wyoming's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating UNLV would put its Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 38.8%, while a loss would drop them to 2.4%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L13-35 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W21-13 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L10-24 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W27-10 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | L0-28 | |
| 6 | 10/09 | W16-13 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W41-23 | |
| 8 | 10/23 | W28-14 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:33% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 16.7% | 40.7% |
| 5-3 | 65.0% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 17.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 8.1% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.5%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 8.1% (+0.1%) | 8.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 8.1% (+0.1%) | 8.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 8.0% (+0.0%) | 8.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 38.8% (+30.8%) | 2.4% (-5.6%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'i
New Mexico
Northern IllinoisWyomingCCG: 44.9% • Scenario: 1.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 38.2% • Scenario: 15.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02