San Jose St

San José StateSpartans

0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is San José State's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

San José State has a 4.0% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. San José State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

San Jose StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
8/29
@USCUSC
Win prob:2%
9/04
@E MichiganEMU
Win prob:49%
9/12
vsCal PolyCP
Win prob:90%
9/19
vsFresno StFRES
Win prob:29%
10/03
@HawaiiHAW
Win prob:20%
10/09
vsWyomingWYO
Win prob:53%
10/17
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:50%
10/24
@NevadaNEV
Win prob:39%
10/31
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:31%
11/07
vsN IllinoisNIU
Win prob:56%
11/14
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:28%
11/21
vsUNLVUNLV
Win prob:21%
11/27
vsNorth Dakota StNDSU
Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.2%
100.0%
7-2
1.3%
96.7%
6-3
5.4%
47.0%
5-4
14.5%
0.8%
4-5
24.7%
0%
3-6
27.4%
0%
2-7
18.3%
0%
1-8
7.1%
0%
0-9
1.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely San Jose St CCG Opponents

if San Jose St makes the CCG

UNLVUNLV
43.4%
Hawai'iHawaii
23.7%
New MexicoNew Mexico
16.6%
Air ForceAir Force
9.2%
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota St
7.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StThis Week's Impact

Game
San Jose StCCG OddsAway
San Jose StCCG OddsHome
Jacksonville StJXST@North Dakota StNDSU
4.1%
(+0.0%)		4.0%
(-0.0%)
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
4.0%
(-0.1%)		4.1%
(+0.1%)
San Jose StSJSU@USCUSC
4.3%
(+0.2%)		4.0%
(-0.0%)
HawaiiHAW@StanfordSTAN
4.2%
(+0.1%)		3.9%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
San Jose St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
97.5%
0.3%
Air ForceUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNew MexicoUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyE MichiganUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyE MichiganFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUSC
90.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVUSC
90.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUSC
77.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUNLV
66.7%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
67.3%
1.3%
Fresno StHawaiiN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUSCUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNew MexicoUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNorth Dakota StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganN IllinoisNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StHawaiiUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyHawaiiUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNevadaUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUNLVUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNew MexicoUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUNLVUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNorth Dakota StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganFresno StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUSCUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyNew MexicoUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyE MichiganHawaiiUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyFresno StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUSCUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StHawaiiNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyFresno StNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUSCUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCal PolyNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyE MichiganFresno StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganHawaiiUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNevadaUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyHawaiiUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganFresno StNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganHawaiiNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyN IllinoisUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUSCUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCal PolyUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StHawaiiUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNevadaNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganN IllinoisNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyHawaiiNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNevadaUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganUNLVWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyFresno StUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiNevadaWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNevadaUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyHawaiiNew MexicoUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCal PolyUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiNorth Dakota StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyE MichiganUNLVUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNorth Dakota StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StN IllinoisUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaiiWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUNLVWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StN IllinoisUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNew MexicoWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiN IllinoisNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganFresno StNew MexicoUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCal PolyFresno StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyFresno StNorth Dakota StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyHawaiiNevadaUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNew MexicoUSCWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaiiUSC
97.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNew MexicoUSC
95.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNevadaUSC
95.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUNLVUSC
95.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUNLVUSC
93.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNorth Dakota StUSC
92.9%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiUNLVUSC
91.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganHawaiiNew MexicoUSC
90.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceE MichiganNew MexicoUSC
90.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUNLVUSC
89.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUNLVUSC
85.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNevadaUSC
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUSCWyoming
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiN IllinoisUSC
75.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUSCUTEPWyoming
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
75.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
71.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNevadaUSC
66.7%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLVUSCWyoming
66.7%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUSCUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUSCWyoming
66.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUSCUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUSCWyoming
60.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUNLVUSC
60.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
60.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUSCUTEP
58.3%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUSCWyoming
57.1%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLVUSCUTEP
57.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNorth Dakota StUSC
56.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNew MexicoUSC
54.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUSCWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaNew MexicoUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaiiNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUSCUTEPWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUSCUTEP
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaNew MexicoUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiN IllinoisUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
Cal PolyNew MexicoUNLVUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUSCWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUSCUTEPWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNevadaUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUSCUTEP
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaiiUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNew MexicoUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaiiNevada
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVUSCWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUNLVUSC
47.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVUSCWyoming
47.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUNLVUSC
44.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNew MexicoUSC
42.9%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
42.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNevadaUSC
42.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
42.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUNLVUSC
41.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVUSCUTEP
41.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUSCUTEP
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUSCUTEP
40.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNew MexicoUNLV
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUSCWyoming
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNorth Dakota StUSC
40.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUSCUTEP
37.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUSCUTEP
36.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUNLVUSC
36.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
35.7%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoNorth Dakota StUSC
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVUSCWyoming
33.3%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVUSCWyoming
33.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaUNLVUSC
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNorth Dakota StUNLV
33.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUSCUTEP
28.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUNLVUSC
28.2%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
27.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUNLVUSC
25.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNew MexicoUSC
25.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVUSCUTEP
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUNLVUSC
21.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
20.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUNLVUSC
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUSCWyoming
20.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaNorth Dakota StUSC
20.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUSCWyoming
14.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVUSCUTEP
8.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com