San Jose St

San José StateSpartans

2-1 T3rd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is San José State's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

San José State has a 3.4% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. San José State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

San Jose StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
@USCUSC
L26-42
19/04
@E MichiganEMU
W27-21
29/12
vsCal PolyCP
W30-20
39/19
vsFresno StFRES
Win prob:26%
510/03
@HawaiiHAW
Win prob:33%
610/09
vsWyomingWYO
Win prob:77%
710/17
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:62%
810/24
@NevadaNEV
Win prob:24%
910/31
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:17%
1011/07
vsN IllinoisNIU
Win prob:78%
1111/14
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:26%
1211/21
vsUNLVUNLV
Win prob:39%
1311/27
vsNorth Dakota StNDSU
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.2%
100.0%
7-2
1.7%
88.5%
6-3
7.5%
21.7%
5-4
19.1%
0.1%
4-5
29.2%
0%
3-6
26.1%
0%
2-7
12.8%
0%
1-8
3.1%
0%
0-9
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible San Jose St CCG Opponents

if San Jose St makes the CCG

UNMNew Mexico
42.6%
NDSUNorth Dakota St
42.6%
UNLVUNLV
6.5%
NEVNevada
5.3%
AFAir Force
2.1%
HAWHawaii
0.9%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StThis Week's Impact

Game
San Jose StCCG OddsAway Wins
San Jose StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
3.5%
(+0.1%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.4%
(-0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
3.3%
(-0.1%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
3.5%
(+0.1%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.5%
(+0.1%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
San Jose St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
91.4%
0.5%
Air ForceFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
UNLVWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevada
99.3%
<0.1%
NevadaUTEP
98.2%
<0.1%
New MexicoUTEP
97.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLV
97.5%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLV
97.2%
<0.1%
NevadaWyoming
96.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLV
96.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew Mexico
95.8%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico
95.2%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew Mexico
94.6%
<0.1%
UNLVUTEP
94.1%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew Mexico
93.8%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLV
90.4%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUTEP
85.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota St
85.8%
<0.1%
North Dakota StWyoming
85.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota St
84.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota St
83.6%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota St
80.2%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLV
70.7%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota St
59.2%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
48.5%
3.2%
Fresno StHawaiiUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUTEPWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StHawaii
99.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUTEP
99.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNevada
99.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUTEP
99.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiUNLV
98.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNevada
98.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaWyoming
98.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNew Mexico
97.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUNLV
97.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaUNLV
97.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoWyoming
97.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNevada
97.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUTEP
96.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNew Mexico
96.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUTEP
95.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNew Mexico
94.6%
0.1%
Fresno StNevadaNew Mexico
92.7%
0.1%
Fresno StUNLVWyoming
92.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StWyoming
92.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoUNLV
92.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiUTEPWyoming
92.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StHawaiiNorth Dakota St
85.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUTEP
84.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StNorth Dakota St
84.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
82.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Dakota StUNLV
80.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUTEP
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNevadaNorth Dakota St
79.8%
<0.1%
NevadaUTEPWyoming
76.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisWyoming
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUTEPWyoming
66.7%
<0.1%
New MexicoUTEPWyoming
65.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUTEPWyoming
62.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUTEP
62.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVWyoming
60.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
54.8%
0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiN Illinois
51.9%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUTEPWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiWyoming
48.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaWyoming
47.4%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaUTEP
46.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUTEP
45.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisUNLV
45.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoWyoming
45.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUTEP
44.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUTEP
44.4%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUNLVUTEP
44.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUTEP
44.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUTEP
42.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNevada
42.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaWyoming
42.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNevada
41.9%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLVUTEP
40.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVUTEP
40.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNew Mexico
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisUNLV
40.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaWyoming
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNew Mexico
39.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVUTEP
39.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUTEP
37.5%
<0.1%
NevadaUNLVWyoming
37.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaNew Mexico
37.1%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoUNLV
37.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNevada
36.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNew Mexico
35.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
32.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoWyoming
32.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUNLV
32.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVWyoming
32.7%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVUTEP
32.4%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUTEP
32.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaNew Mexico
32.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUTEP
31.8%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoWyoming
31.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaUNLV
29.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUNLV
28.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisWyoming
28.6%
<0.1%
New MexicoUNLVWyoming
28.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
28.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNew Mexico
28.0%
0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUNLV
26.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUTEP
24.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiUNLVWyoming
24.2%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUTEPWyoming
23.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiNorth Dakota St
22.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUNLV
22.2%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUTEP
22.2%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevadaNorth Dakota St
22.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVUTEP
21.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUNLV
21.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StWyoming
21.1%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUNLVWyoming
20.9%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUTEP
20.3%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StWyoming
20.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StWyoming
19.1%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaNorth Dakota St
18.6%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUNLV
18.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StWyoming
16.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNorth Dakota St
15.0%
0.1%
HawaiiNorth Dakota StUNLV
14.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StUNLV
14.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Dakota StUNLV
12.9%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StUNLV
11.9%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota StWyoming
11.1%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUTEP
10.9%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
9.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
9.2%
0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
7.8%
0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
6.7%
0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StUNLV
5.6%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

San Jose StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com