Hawaii

Hawai'iRainbow Warriors

1-2 T3rd (0-1) in MWC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Hawai'i's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

Hawai'i has a 3.1% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Hawai'i's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

HawaiiSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
@StanfordSTAN
L27-37
19/05
vsUNLVUNLV
L6-21
29/12
vsNew Mexico StNMSU
W29-19
49/26
@WyomingWYO
Win prob:71%
510/03
vsSan Jose StSJSU
Win prob:67%
610/10
@Arizona StASU
Win prob:9%
710/17
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:24%
810/24
@N IllinoisNIU
Win prob:72%
1011/07
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:70%
1111/14
vsNorth Dakota StNDSU
Win prob:29%
1211/21
@NevadaNEV
Win prob:32%
1311/28
vsSacramento StSAC
Win prob:95%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-1
0.5%
98.9%
6-2
5.1%
46.3%
5-3
18.3%
1.0%
4-4
31.6%
0%
3-5
28.0%
0%
2-6
13.1%
0%
1-7
3.1%
0%
0-8
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Hawaii CCG Opponents

if Hawaii makes the CCG

NDSUNorth Dakota St
44.1%
UNMNew Mexico
34.3%
UNLVUNLV
11.8%
NEVNevada
6.2%
AFAir Force
2.6%
SJSUSan Jose St
1.0%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiThis Week's Impact

Game
HawaiiCCG OddsAway Wins
HawaiiCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
3.1%
(+0.0%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
3.0%
(-0.0%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
3.1%
(+0.0%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
3.1%
(-0.0%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
3.0%
(-0.1%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
3.1%
(+0.0%)		3.1%
(-0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
3.1%
(-0.0%)		3.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Hawaii CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
99.4%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
74.4%
0.9%
Sacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Arizona St
98.8%
0.5%
Wyoming
68.4%
<0.1%
N Illinois
68.1%
<0.1%
UTEP
65.1%
<0.1%
San Jose St
62.5%
<0.1%
North Dakota St
54.0%
0.1%
Nevada
48.2%
0.1%
New Mexico
35.0%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
38.7%
5.4%
Arizona StSacramento St
99.6%
<0.1%
Sacramento StWyoming
84.6%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSacramento St
80.0%
<0.1%
Sacramento StSan Jose St
71.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StUTEP
66.5%
0.2%
Arizona StN Illinois
66.4%
0.2%
Arizona StSan Jose St
64.7%
0.2%
Arizona StWyoming
62.2%
0.2%
NevadaSacramento St
54.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorth Dakota St
49.3%
1.1%
Arizona StNevada
48.9%
1.0%
North Dakota StSacramento St
45.7%
<0.1%
New MexicoSacramento St
33.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StNew Mexico
31.5%
1.5%
Sacramento StUTEP
16.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisWyoming
10.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisSan Jose St
8.0%
<0.1%
UTEPWyoming
6.7%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUTEP
5.1%
<0.1%
San Jose StUTEP
4.5%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorth Dakota St
4.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StWyoming
3.5%
<0.1%
North Dakota StUTEP
3.5%
<0.1%
San Jose StWyoming
3.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNevada
2.2%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew Mexico
1.9%
<0.1%
New MexicoWyoming
1.9%
<0.1%
NevadaWyoming
1.6%
<0.1%
NevadaUTEP
1.5%
<0.1%
North Dakota StSan Jose St
1.4%
<0.1%
New MexicoUTEP
1.1%
<0.1%
New MexicoSan Jose St
0.8%
<0.1%
NevadaSan Jose St
0.8%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota St
0.6%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com