Hawai'iRainbow Warriors
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
43.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Hawai'i's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Hawai'i has a 43.7% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Hawai'i's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:29% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 15.5% | 99.1% |
| 6-2 | 27.9% | 75.1% |
| 5-3 | 28.3% | 13.2% |
| 4-4 | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 44.1% (+0.4%) | 43.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 43.6% (-0.1%) | 43.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.8% (+0.1%) | 43.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 44.4% (+0.7%) | 43.1% (-0.6%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
99.8%
2.5%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.1%
0.3%Any 2 losses
94.2%
9.0%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.5%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
0.1%98.7%
0.4%98.5%
0.9%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.6%
0.2%96.3%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.2%
0.1%81.0%
0.1%79.5%
<0.1%77.6%
0.2%77.6%
0.2%77.3%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%69.9%
0.2%69.3%
<0.1%48.9%
0.2%Any 3 losses
78.1%
18.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.4%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.6%
0.6%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
1.0%97.9%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%97.2%
0.4%95.6%
<0.1%95.2%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.5%
0.1%92.3%
0.1%91.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
0.2%90.9%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%89.3%
0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.7%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
0.3%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.9%
0.2%80.8%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.3%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.3%
0.3%78.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.3%76.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.2%74.7%
0.4%74.5%
0.4%74.4%
0.2%74.2%
0.2%73.3%
0.1%72.7%
0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.5%
0.2%72.0%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.9%
0.2%70.8%
0.4%70.1%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.1%
0.2%67.6%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.3%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.3%46.7%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
53.0%
23.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%96.2%
0.4%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.7%
0.1%88.5%
0.1%88.3%
0.1%88.0%
0.1%87.8%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
0.2%87.1%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
0.2%86.2%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.9%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.2%85.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.5%
0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.5%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
0.2%80.5%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
0.2%76.9%
0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.0%
0.4%75.9%
<0.1%75.8%
0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.1%
0.4%75.0%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%74.3%
0.1%74.3%
<0.1%74.0%
0.3%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.8%
0.3%72.5%
0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.9%
0.5%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
0.3%68.8%
<0.1%68.7%
<0.1%68.1%
0.5%68.0%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.5%66.1%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%47.3%
0.7%46.9%
0.1%42.9%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%17.0%
0.2%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.2%9.7%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.2%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.4%
0.3%4.4%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26