North Dakota StateBison
3-0 T1st (1-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
75.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is North Dakota State's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
North Dakota State has a 75.3% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | W33-7 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W38-32 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:97% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:96% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:61% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:76% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 28.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 35.5% | 93.3% |
| 6-3 | 20.8% | 27.9% |
| 5-4 | 6.3% | 0.2% |
| 4-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 75.2% (-0.1%) | 75.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 75.6% (+0.3%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 75.1% (-0.2%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 74.8% (-0.5%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.3% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.6%Any 1 loss
100.0%
28.0%Any 2 losses
93.4%
35.3%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.1%99.8%
0.1%99.3%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.9%
0.1%98.8%
0.9%98.7%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.9%
0.6%97.9%
0.1%97.7%
0.7%97.6%
1.0%97.5%
0.6%97.1%
0.1%97.0%
5.9%96.9%
0.2%96.7%
0.2%96.5%
0.2%96.3%
2.1%96.3%
0.7%95.2%
1.4%94.7%
4.0%92.7%
1.6%89.8%
4.5%87.9%
9.1%Any 3 losses
30.8%
21.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.3%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.7%
0.1%88.4%
0.2%63.5%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%48.5%
0.3%48.4%
0.3%47.9%
0.2%46.4%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%44.5%
<0.1%43.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.4%
0.2%42.1%
0.2%41.9%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%40.1%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%38.8%
<0.1%37.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.5%
1.6%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
0.2%35.0%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.3%
0.2%33.6%
0.2%32.7%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
0.3%30.1%
0.4%30.1%
<0.1%29.9%
0.4%29.7%
1.9%29.3%
0.6%29.1%
0.4%26.1%
3.8%25.8%
1.3%25.0%
0.7%21.7%
2.6%20.9%
0.4%17.8%
2.9%Any 4 losses
19.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%25.5%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17