North Dakota StateBison
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is North Dakota State's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
North Dakota State has a 15.4% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:23% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:33% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 6.8% | 96.5% |
| 6-3 | 17.5% | 41.3% |
| 5-4 | 27.2% | 0.5% |
| 4-5 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15.2% (-0.3%) | 15.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.0%) | 15.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.1%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.1%) | 15.5% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.4%Any 2 losses
97.9%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.9%
0.3%95.0%
<0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.5%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
66.6%
7.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
0.1%95.3%
0.1%95.1%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.2%
0.2%93.8%
0.2%93.0%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%91.0%
0.2%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.5%
0.1%48.4%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.8%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
0.1%37.5%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
0.1%36.8%
0.3%36.4%
<0.1%36.3%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.9%
0.1%35.0%
0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
0.2%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
0.4%31.1%
<0.1%29.4%
0.3%26.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
41.9%
12.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%97.7%
0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.9%
0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.1%
0.1%41.1%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.2%
<0.1%40.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.7%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.2%
0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.6%
0.2%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.5%
0.3%33.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.4%
0.3%31.3%
<0.1%31.2%
0.2%30.1%
0.4%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.6%
0.4%24.1%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2026-08-26