North Dakota StateBison
7-2 4th (4-2) in MWC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
64.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is North Dakota State's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
North Dakota State has a 64.2% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does North Dakota State need to do to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 95.0%; even one more loss drops that to 29.8%.
What is the biggest game this week for North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a UNLV win would boost them to 65.0%, while a Wyoming win would leave them at 59.8%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | W33-7 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W38-32 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W31-10 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W28-0 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | L7-13 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W31-17 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L16-21 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W31-7 | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:98% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 55.8% | 95.0% |
| 6-3 | 37.5% | 29.8% |
| 5-4 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 64.1% (-0.1%) | 64.6% (+0.4%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 64.7% (+0.5%) | 64.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 64.1% (-0.1%) | 64.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 64.2% (+0.0%) | 64.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 59.8% (-4.4%) | 65.0% (+0.8%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'i
New Mexico
Northern Illinois
UNLVCCG: 68.1% • Scenario: 9.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 65.6% • Scenario: 84.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02