UNLVRebels
5-3 3rd (3-1) in MWC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is UNLV's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
UNLV has a 25.4% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UNLV's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does UNLV need to do to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts UNLV's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 40.9%.
What is the biggest game this week for UNLV's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?
UNLV's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Wyoming would put its Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 29.6%, while a loss would drop them to 2.0%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L21-27 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W21-6 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L6-44 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W38-10 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W39-31 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W13-7 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | L31-41 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W31-24 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:85% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:16% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.7% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 42.8% | 40.9% |
| 5-3 | 38.0% | 3.0% |
| 4-4 | 11.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 24.9% (-0.5%) | 28.0% (+2.6%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 25.6% (+0.2%) | 25.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 25.5% (+0.1%) | 25.3% (-0.1%) | ||
| 25.4% (+0.0%) | 25.1% (-0.2%) | ||
| 2.0% (-23.4%) | 29.6% (+4.3%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'i
Nevada
San José StateUNLVCCG: 33.2% • Scenario: 9.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 29.0% • Scenario: 84.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02