UNLVRebels
1-2 T1st (1-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is UNLV's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
UNLV has a 21.8% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UNLV's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L21-27 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W21-6 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L6-44 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:75% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:39% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:44% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:20% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.3% | 97.8% |
| 6-2 | 24.6% | 47.0% |
| 5-3 | 34.0% | 3.3% |
| 4-4 | 23.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 21.9% (+0.1%) | 21.7% (-0.1%) | ||
| 21.3% (-0.5%) | 21.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (-0.0%) | 21.9% (+0.1%) | ||
| 21.7% (-0.1%) | 21.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.4% (-0.4%) | 21.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.8% (+0.0%) | 21.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.8% (+0.0%) | 21.7% (-0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
98.2%
3.4%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.5%
99.7%
0.4%
98.7%
0.2%
95.9%
1.4%Any 2 losses
64.1%
13.0%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.3%99.8%
0.5%99.8%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.3%95.9%
0.5%95.8%
1.6%92.6%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
0.3%77.6%
0.3%72.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
0.2%68.3%
0.7%59.1%
0.3%56.1%
0.2%54.1%
0.1%53.1%
0.4%53.1%
0.9%44.2%
1.8%33.7%
1.0%26.4%
2.2%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17