UNLVRebels
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is UNLV's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
UNLV has a 62.9% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UNLV's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:87% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 23.8% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 32.3% | 83.4% |
| 5-3 | 23.5% | 21.3% |
| 4-4 | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 62.9% (+0.0%) | 62.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 63.0% (+0.1%) | 62.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.6% (-0.3%) | 62.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.2%) | 62.7% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.4%Any 1 loss
99.9%
7.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%99.9%
1.1%99.9%
0.8%99.8%
1.2%Any 2 losses
94.2%
18.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.9%
0.7%99.9%
0.7%99.8%
0.6%99.8%
0.6%99.6%
0.9%97.1%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.2%
0.1%93.0%
0.1%92.7%
0.3%91.7%
0.2%91.3%
0.4%90.6%
<0.1%90.3%
0.2%90.2%
0.2%89.9%
0.2%88.5%
<0.1%88.3%
0.2%88.0%
0.2%87.1%
0.2%86.6%
0.4%86.2%
<0.1%85.1%
0.3%85.1%
0.2%84.9%
0.1%77.3%
0.6%74.4%
0.6%65.3%
0.9%Any 3 losses
77.3%
25.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.4%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%94.8%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
0.2%93.8%
0.1%93.5%
0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%92.0%
0.1%91.6%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.5%
0.2%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
0.2%90.2%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%89.8%
0.2%89.4%
0.2%89.3%
0.1%89.1%
0.1%89.1%
0.1%89.0%
<0.1%88.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.2%88.8%
0.2%88.7%
0.1%88.7%
0.2%88.5%
<0.1%88.4%
0.1%88.0%
0.2%87.7%
0.1%87.7%
0.1%87.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.2%87.3%
0.2%87.1%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.6%
<0.1%86.3%
0.1%86.3%
0.2%86.3%
<0.1%86.1%
0.2%86.0%
0.2%85.7%
0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.1%
0.1%84.9%
0.2%84.7%
<0.1%84.3%
0.2%83.5%
0.1%83.3%
0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.1%
0.4%80.3%
0.3%78.6%
0.1%77.9%
0.5%77.6%
0.5%77.4%
0.4%75.7%
0.4%73.7%
0.4%72.6%
0.1%69.6%
0.5%66.5%
0.2%64.5%
0.5%63.3%
0.7%63.0%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.2%24.5%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
0.2%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.2%19.9%
0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
0.3%18.9%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.9%
0.1%16.5%
0.1%16.3%
0.2%16.3%
0.3%15.3%
0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.6%
<0.1%11.5%
0.5%10.1%
0.2%Any 4 losses
57.1%
21.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.0%
0.1%99.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%92.1%
0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%89.7%
0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.7%
0.1%87.6%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.4%
0.2%84.0%
<0.1%84.0%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.7%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.4%
0.1%82.3%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.9%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.7%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.1%
0.2%78.9%
0.3%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.3%
0.2%77.2%
0.3%77.1%
0.3%76.7%
0.1%74.8%
0.2%73.1%
<0.1%69.4%
0.3%68.7%
0.4%67.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.4%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.2%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.1%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.0%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.4%
0.2%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.5%
0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
0.3%12.8%
0.2%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.3%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
0.4%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26