New MexicoLobos
7-1 1st (4-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
94.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is New Mexico's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
New Mexico has a 94.0% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does New Mexico need to do to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts New Mexico's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 100%.
What is the biggest game this week for New Mexico's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds?
New Mexico's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Nevada would put its Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 96.3%, while a loss would drop them to 81.7%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W70-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L6-14 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W42-18 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W61-7 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W21-10 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W21-16 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W21-16 | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 55.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 35.4% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 8.3% | 38.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 96.3% (+2.3%) | 81.7% (-12.3%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 93.9% (-0.1%) | 94.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 94.0% (-0.0%) | 94.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 94.0% (-0.0%) | 94.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 95.3% (+1.3%) | 93.8% (-0.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'iNew Mexico
San José State
WyomingCCG: 97.2% • Scenario: 9.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New MexicoCCG: 96.1% • Scenario: 84.0%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02