New MexicoLobos
2-0 T3rd (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
71.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is New Mexico's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
New Mexico has a 71.5% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W70-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:7% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:86% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:76% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:67% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 16.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 34.5% | 99.0% |
| 6-2 | 30.3% | 65.5% |
| 5-3 | 14.4% | 9.3% |
| 4-4 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 71.6% (+0.0%) | 71.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 72.0% (+0.4%) | 71.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 71.5% (-0.0%) | 71.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 72.0% (+0.4%) | 71.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 72.0% (+0.4%) | 71.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 71.5% (+0.0%) | 71.3% (-0.3%) | ||
| 71.5% (+0.0%) | 71.5% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
99.9%
15.2%
100.0%
13.0%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.3%
99.8%
0.2%
98.5%
0.5%
98.4%
0.2%
97.9%
0.2%Any 2 losses
97.2%
31.9%100.0%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
4.1%100.0%
7.0%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
2.8%98.1%
6.4%98.1%
2.8%97.5%
<0.1%97.1%
3.2%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%89.2%
0.1%86.8%
<0.1%83.0%
0.2%74.9%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%67.8%
<0.1%65.2%
0.1%63.5%
<0.1%61.9%
0.1%60.0%
0.3%58.5%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%48.3%
0.1%46.5%
0.1%41.4%
<0.1%38.9%
0.1%Any 3 losses
68.8%
29.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
1.1%99.9%
0.2%99.9%
0.4%98.0%
1.0%97.7%
0.5%97.4%
0.5%97.2%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
0.2%94.0%
<0.1%93.0%
0.5%92.7%
0.2%89.5%
0.3%88.8%
0.1%88.8%
1.5%87.6%
0.9%87.3%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%83.4%
2.2%83.3%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.6%
0.2%73.1%
0.5%72.0%
0.2%70.9%
0.9%70.5%
0.6%69.8%
1.3%65.6%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.1%
0.3%64.1%
2.0%63.7%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%62.9%
1.6%62.1%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.4%
0.7%59.4%
3.5%57.9%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.3%
1.0%52.5%
<0.1%49.6%
1.4%48.9%
<0.1%45.0%
1.7%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
0.7%39.5%
<0.1%38.6%
1.6%32.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
23.2%
15.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.2%86.2%
0.1%83.4%
0.4%74.5%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%70.1%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
0.2%68.8%
0.1%65.5%
0.3%64.9%
<0.1%63.1%
0.2%60.5%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%59.7%
0.5%54.8%
0.2%50.7%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%46.3%
0.3%44.9%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.5%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.4%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.5%
0.2%27.5%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
<0.1%24.6%
0.5%21.4%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.3%15.6%
0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
0.5%13.0%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%11.9%
0.3%11.6%
0.2%11.4%
0.7%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
1.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.4%8.0%
0.4%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.5%6.8%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%4.7%
0.4%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.8%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
0.4%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
0.5%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.9%2.2%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17