New MexicoLobos
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is New Mexico's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
New Mexico has a 35.7% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:8% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 9.9% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 23.4% | 80.2% |
| 5-3 | 29.3% | 17.8% |
| 4-4 | 22.0% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 10.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 35.8% (+0.1%) | 35.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.6% (-0.1%) | 35.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.3% (-1.5%) | 35.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.6% (-0.2%) | 35.9% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.8%
1.3%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
96.8%
6.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
1.0%99.3%
1.2%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%46.4%
0.1%Any 3 losses
80.3%
16.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.6%
0.5%99.2%
0.4%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.9%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%97.1%
0.2%96.0%
0.3%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.5%
0.2%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.9%
0.2%91.4%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.2%
0.5%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
0.3%88.2%
<0.1%87.8%
0.3%87.5%
0.5%87.5%
<0.1%86.3%
0.3%86.1%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
0.3%84.6%
0.6%83.8%
0.6%83.7%
0.5%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
0.5%81.7%
0.5%81.2%
0.6%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
0.6%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.6%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%53.1%
1.5%53.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
45.3%
23.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%89.4%
0.2%89.4%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.8%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.2%87.0%
0.2%86.9%
0.2%86.9%
0.2%86.7%
0.2%86.4%
<0.1%86.1%
0.2%85.3%
0.2%84.7%
0.3%84.5%
0.3%84.5%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.6%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.2%81.1%
0.3%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
0.2%79.0%
0.2%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
0.2%77.6%
<0.1%76.0%
0.3%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
0.2%74.3%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.2%63.9%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
0.6%55.5%
0.5%54.5%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.3%
0.3%31.8%
<0.1%31.0%
0.1%30.5%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%28.9%
0.1%28.7%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.6%
0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.4%
0.4%25.3%
0.3%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.4%
0.2%24.2%
0.1%23.9%
0.3%23.1%
0.1%22.9%
0.3%22.9%
0.1%22.7%
0.1%22.5%
0.1%22.3%
0.3%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.0%
0.3%20.9%
0.1%20.3%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.3%19.1%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.4%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.3%14.5%
0.4%14.5%
0.4%14.4%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.3%13.2%
0.7%13.1%
0.7%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.7%
0.3%11.7%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
0.9%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.8%8.5%
0.7%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26