UTEP

UTEPMiners

1-1 T3rd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is UTEP's probability of making the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

UTEP has a 0.1% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UTEP's Mountain West Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UTEPSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/04
@OklahomaOU
L0-51
29/12
vsTexas SouthernTXSO
W51-10
39/19
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:1%
49/26
vsOregon StORST
Win prob:20%
510/03
@New MexicoUNM
Win prob:3%
610/10
vsNevadaNEV
Win prob:21%
710/17
vsSan Jose StSJSU
Win prob:38%
910/31
@North Dakota StNDSU
Win prob:4%
1011/07
vsHawaiiHAW
Win prob:30%
1111/14
vsWyomingWYO
Win prob:59%
1211/20
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:12%
1311/28
@N IllinoisNIU
Win prob:44%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UTEPRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
100.0%
7-1
0.0%
97.7%
6-2
0.2%
42.0%
5-3
1.8%
1.4%
4-4
9.0%
0%
3-5
24.1%
0%
2-6
34.3%
0%
1-7
24.2%
0%
0-8
6.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible UTEP CCG Opponents

if UTEP makes the CCG

NDSUNorth Dakota St
44.4%
UNMNew Mexico
44.4%
UNLVUNLV
11.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UTEPThis Week's Impact

Game
UTEPCCG OddsAway Wins
UTEPCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
0.1%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
0.2%
(+0.1%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UTEPLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UTEP CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNorth Dakota St
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichigan
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota St
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
34.8%
<0.1%
MichiganNevadaOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganOregon StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNorth Dakota StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNorth Dakota StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMichiganOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiMichigan
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
North Dakota StOregon StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMichiganNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNew MexicoOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNew MexicoOregon St
92.6%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorth Dakota St
87.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiMichiganNorth Dakota St
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganNevada
66.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNorth Dakota StSan Jose St
66.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNew MexicoSan Jose St
64.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganNorth Dakota St
61.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganNew Mexico
58.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNew MexicoWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoNorth Dakota StOregon St
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMichiganN Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoOregon St
50.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNevadaNew Mexico
41.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNevadaNorth Dakota St
38.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
34.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiMichiganNew Mexico
33.3%
<0.1%
NevadaNorth Dakota StOregon St
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNew Mexico
28.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoNorth Dakota St
8.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UTEPCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com