Western MichiganBroncos
6-3 2nd (4-1) in MAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
69.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Western Michigan's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Western Michigan has a 69.0% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Western Michigan's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Western Michigan need to do to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Western Michigan's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 97.9%; even one more loss drops that to 21.8%.
What is the biggest game this week for Western Michigan's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for Western Michigan's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Sacramento State win would boost them to 75.8%, while a Toledo win would leave them at 68.9%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L12-13 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W49-14 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W28-21 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L7-32 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W20-17 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W38-7 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W21-14 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L38-45 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W23-10 | |
| 11 | 11/10 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/24 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 63.4% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 32.0% | 21.9% |
| 5-3 | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 68.0% (-1.0%) | 74.9% (+5.9%) | ||
| 66.2% (-2.9%) | 70.3% (+1.3%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 69.2% (+0.2%) | 69.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 68.9% (-0.1%) | 75.8% (+6.8%) | ||
| 69.2% (+0.2%) | 68.8% (-0.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Sacramento State
Central Michigan
Miami (OH)
MassachusettsCCG: 83.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 74.7% • Scenario: 14.3%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02