W Michigan

Western MichiganBroncos

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

78.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Western Michigan's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

Western Michigan has a 78.5% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Western Michigan's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

W MichiganSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@MichiganMICH
L12-13
29/12
vsMonmouthMONM
W49-14
39/19
@RiceRICE
Win prob:86%
49/26
vsBoise StBOIS
Win prob:34%
510/03
@BuffaloBUF
Win prob:86%
610/10
vsKentKENT
Win prob:98%
710/17
@C MichiganCMU
Win prob:92%
810/24
@ToledoTOL
Win prob:49%
910/31
vsBowling GreenBGSU
Win prob:97%
1111/10
@AkronAKR
Win prob:88%
1211/17
vsE MichiganEMU
Win prob:96%
1311/24
vsMiami OHM-OH
Win prob:88%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

W MichiganRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
27.4%
100.0%
7-1
45.2%
93.0%
6-2
21.8%
40.6%
5-3
5.0%
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
0%
3-5
0.0%
0%
2-6
0%
0%
1-7
0%
0%
0-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible W Michigan CCG Opponents

if W Michigan makes the CCG

TOLToledo
63.6%
OHIOOhio
15.3%
M-OHMiami OH
8.3%
MASSMassachusetts
8.2%
AKRAkron
1.3%
BUFBuffalo
1.2%
BALLBall St
0.9%
EMUE Michigan
0.5%
CMUC Michigan
0.4%
KENTKent
0.2%
BGSUBowling Green
0.2%
SACSacramento St
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

W MichiganThis Week's Impact

Game
W MichiganCCG OddsAway Wins
W MichiganCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
78.3%
(-0.1%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
78.3%
(-0.2%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
78.3%
(-0.2%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
78.2%
(-0.3%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
78.6%
(+0.1%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
78.5%
(+0.1%)		78.4%
(-0.1%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
78.4%
(-0.0%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
78.3%
(-0.2%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
StonehillSTO@MassachusettsMASS
78.5%
(+0.1%)		78.5%
(-0.0%)
Ball StBALL@LibertyLIB
78.5%
(+0.0%)		78.5%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
78.5%
(+0.0%)		78.5%
(+0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
78.5%
(+0.0%)		78.4%
(-0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
78.5%
(+0.0%)		78.5%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

W MichiganLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
W Michigan CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.0%
Any 1 loss
96.9%
30.0%
Rice
100.0%
1.3%
Boise St
100.0%
15.6%
C Michigan
98.2%
0.7%
Kent
97.8%
0.2%
Akron
97.4%
1.1%
Bowling Green
96.9%
0.2%
Buffalo
96.2%
1.4%
Miami OH
94.9%
1.1%
E Michigan
93.2%
0.3%
Toledo
91.0%
8.2%
Any 2 losses
84.4%
36.8%
Boise StRice
100.0%
2.5%
Boise StKent
98.4%
0.3%
C MichiganRice
98.0%
0.1%
Boise StC Michigan
98.0%
1.4%
KentRice
97.5%
<0.1%
AkronBoise St
97.4%
2.2%
AkronRice
97.3%
0.2%
BuffaloRice
96.9%
0.2%
Boise StBowling Green
96.8%
0.5%
Boise StBuffalo
96.4%
2.6%
Bowling GreenRice
96.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHRice
95.6%
0.2%
Boise StMiami OH
95.0%
2.2%
E MichiganRice
94.1%
<0.1%
Boise StE Michigan
93.9%
0.6%
RiceToledo
91.0%
1.4%
Boise StToledo
90.9%
16.0%
C MichiganKent
74.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKent
73.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloKent
68.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC Michigan
67.8%
<0.1%
E MichiganKent
67.8%
<0.1%
AkronC Michigan
65.3%
<0.1%
AkronBowling Green
64.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffalo
64.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloC Michigan
62.3%
0.1%
C MichiganE Michigan
60.7%
<0.1%
AkronKent
60.3%
<0.1%
AkronBuffalo
60.1%
0.2%
Bowling GreenE Michigan
59.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloE Michigan
57.1%
<0.1%
AkronE Michigan
53.9%
<0.1%
KentMiami OH
51.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganMiami OH
50.7%
0.1%
KentToledo
49.7%
0.2%
Bowling GreenToledo
48.2%
0.2%
C MichiganToledo
46.7%
0.7%
Bowling GreenMiami OH
44.5%
<0.1%
AkronMiami OH
44.4%
0.1%
E MichiganMiami OH
44.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloToledo
42.5%
1.4%
BuffaloMiami OH
42.0%
0.2%
E MichiganToledo
39.6%
0.3%
AkronToledo
35.7%
1.1%
Miami OHToledo
19.9%
1.1%
Any 3 losses
49.4%
19.0%
Boise StKentRice
98.9%
<0.1%
Boise StC MichiganRice
98.5%
0.2%
AkronBoise StRice
97.3%
0.4%
Boise StBowling GreenRice
97.2%
<0.1%
Boise StBuffaloRice
95.9%
0.4%
Boise StMiami OHRice
94.6%
0.4%
Boise StE MichiganRice
93.0%
0.1%
Boise StRiceToledo
91.1%
2.6%
C MichiganKentRice
74.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentRice
73.8%
<0.1%
AkronKentRice
72.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganRice
71.6%
<0.1%
AkronC MichiganRice
71.3%
<0.1%
Boise StBowling GreenC Michigan
70.5%
<0.1%
Boise StE MichiganKent
69.8%
<0.1%
Boise StC MichiganKent
69.1%
<0.1%
Boise StBowling GreenKent
68.8%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenRice
68.5%
<0.1%
Boise StBuffaloKent
68.0%
<0.1%
AkronBoise StC Michigan
66.9%
0.2%
Bowling GreenKentRice
66.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganRice
65.9%
<0.1%
Boise StBuffaloC Michigan
65.7%
0.2%
Boise StBowling GreenE Michigan
65.6%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHRice
65.3%
<0.1%
Boise StC MichiganE Michigan
65.2%
<0.1%
AkronBoise StKent
64.1%
<0.1%
AkronBoise StBowling Green
63.5%
<0.1%
Boise StBuffaloE Michigan
63.0%
0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloRice
62.5%
<0.1%
Boise StBowling GreenBuffalo
61.9%
<0.1%
C MichiganE MichiganRice
60.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganRice
59.9%
<0.1%
AkronBoise StBuffalo
58.6%
0.4%
AkronBuffaloRice
58.3%
<0.1%
Boise StKentMiami OH
56.2%
<0.1%
AkronBoise StE Michigan
55.6%
<0.1%
E MichiganKentRice
55.6%
<0.1%
C MichiganMiami OHRice
55.2%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganRice
54.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenRiceToledo
51.8%
<0.1%
Boise StC MichiganMiami OH
50.2%
0.2%
C MichiganRiceToledo
49.0%
0.1%
Boise StKentToledo
49.0%
0.3%
Boise StBowling GreenToledo
48.1%
0.5%
Boise StBowling GreenMiami OH
48.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganRice
47.6%
<0.1%
KentRiceToledo
47.5%
<0.1%
Boise StE MichiganMiami OH
47.0%
<0.1%
Boise StC MichiganToledo
46.1%
1.4%
AkronBoise StMiami OH
44.1%
0.3%
Boise StBuffaloToledo
43.4%
2.7%
E MichiganMiami OHRice
42.7%
<0.1%
Boise StBuffaloMiami OH
42.1%
0.4%
BuffaloRiceToledo
41.7%
0.2%
Bowling GreenMiami OHRice
41.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHRice
40.4%
<0.1%
Boise StE MichiganToledo
39.3%
0.6%
E MichiganRiceToledo
38.0%
<0.1%
AkronMiami OHRice
37.6%
<0.1%
AkronRiceToledo
36.3%
0.2%
AkronBoise StToledo
36.1%
2.2%
Boise StMiami OHToledo
20.1%
2.2%
AkronBowling GreenE Michigan
18.8%
<0.1%
Miami OHRiceToledo
18.2%
0.2%
BuffaloC MichiganKent
11.5%
<0.1%
AkronC MichiganKent
11.1%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganKent
9.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganE Michigan
8.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganToledo
7.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloE Michigan
6.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganToledo
5.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentToledo
5.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganToledo
4.3%
<0.1%
AkronC MichiganE Michigan
4.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloToledo
3.9%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenBuffalo
3.8%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenMiami OH
3.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganToledo
3.7%
0.1%
AkronBowling GreenC Michigan
3.7%
<0.1%
C MichiganE MichiganToledo
3.7%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganMiami OH
3.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloC Michigan
3.6%
<0.1%
AkronC MichiganToledo
3.4%
0.1%
BuffaloKentMiami OH
3.2%
<0.1%
C MichiganKentToledo
3.1%
<0.1%
E MichiganKentToledo
2.8%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganToledo
2.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganMiami OH
2.7%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHToledo
2.7%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloC Michigan
2.7%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloMiami OH
2.5%
<0.1%
C MichiganMiami OHToledo
2.3%
0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHToledo
2.3%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloToledo
2.3%
0.2%
AkronC MichiganMiami OH
2.1%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenToledo
2.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloMiami OH
2.1%
<0.1%
AkronKentToledo
2.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMiami OHToledo
1.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKentToledo
1.5%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloE Michigan
1.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganMiami OH
1.2%
<0.1%
AkronMiami OHToledo
1.1%
0.2%
BuffaloMiami OHToledo
1.0%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

W MichiganCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com