MemphisTigers
2-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Memphis's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Memphis has a 30.3% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | W27-21 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W42-24 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L20-38 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:88% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:93% | |
| 7 | 10/16 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/22 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:67% | |
| 11 | 11/12 | Win prob:40% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.8% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 29.1% | 43.6% |
| 5-3 | 29.6% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 30.2% (-0.0%) | 30.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 30.4% (+0.1%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 30.2% (-0.0%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 30.4% (+0.1%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 30.3% (+0.0%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 30.2% (-0.1%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 30.4% (+0.2%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 29.9% (-0.3%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 30.2% (-0.0%) | 30.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 30.4% (+0.2%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 30.4% (+0.1%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 30.5% (+0.3%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.7%Any 1 loss
97.0%
13.6%
100.0%
0.3%
99.0%
0.2%
98.9%
0.4%
98.7%
1.9%
98.5%
1.4%
98.3%
0.9%
97.4%
1.1%
96.9%
3.5%
94.8%
4.0%Any 2 losses
46.5%
27.7%98.9%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.1%
0.2%97.3%
0.1%96.8%
0.4%94.0%
0.4%75.0%
<0.1%69.3%
0.3%68.8%
0.1%67.7%
0.1%67.7%
<0.1%64.7%
0.2%62.1%
0.1%61.3%
0.6%59.9%
<0.1%59.3%
0.9%58.4%
0.2%56.8%
0.4%55.5%
0.8%54.1%
0.5%53.3%
0.4%51.3%
0.3%49.4%
0.6%49.0%
0.6%48.5%
1.1%48.2%
0.3%47.9%
2.5%44.6%
1.3%43.4%
2.8%42.8%
1.8%40.2%
1.4%39.5%
2.0%37.3%
1.7%29.6%
5.2%Any 3 losses
6.4%
22.4%76.5%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.2%
0.1%57.7%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%49.9%
<0.1%49.7%
<0.1%48.8%
0.3%48.5%
<0.1%48.2%
0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%44.4%
0.1%43.6%
0.3%42.0%
0.2%39.0%
0.2%37.4%
0.1%34.8%
0.2%29.1%
0.6%5.6%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.3%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.9%1.1%
0.8%1.0%
0.4%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
1.2%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
1.0%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
0.7%0.8%
1.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.7%0.7%
1.4%0.7%
0.5%0.6%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
3.7%0.5%
0.8%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17