MemphisTigers
7-2 3rd (4-1) in AAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
44.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Memphis's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Memphis has a 44.5% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Memphis need to do to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 84.7%; even one more loss drops that to 24.6%.
What is the biggest game this week for Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Rice win would boost them to 59.5%, while a North Texas win would leave them at 43.7%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | W27-21 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W42-24 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L20-38 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W45-21 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W59-8 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W38-13 | |
| 7 | 10/16 | L17-31 | |
| 8 | 10/22 | W41-34 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W49-22 | |
| 11 | 11/12 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 39.5% | 84.7% |
| 6-2 | 45.1% | 24.6% |
| 5-3 | 14.4% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5 | |||
| 41.4% (-3.1%) | 54.5% (+10.0%) | ||
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 41.3% (-3.2%) | 47.3% (+2.8%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 42.6% (-1.9%) | 46.0% (+1.5%) | ||
| 46.4% (+1.8%) | 44.0% (-0.5%) | ||
| 47.1% (+2.5%) | 43.5% (-1.0%) | ||
| 59.5% (+14.9%) | 43.7% (-0.9%) | ||
| 44.5% (-0.1%) | 44.6% (+0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Tulane
Rice
Temple
East Carolina
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticCCG: 70.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida AtlanticCCG: 54.3% • Scenario: 23.7%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02