MemphisTigers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Memphis's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Memphis has a 20.5% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 10/16 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/12 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.1% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 18.1% | 66.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 5.4% |
| 4-4 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 14.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 20.7% (+0.2%) | 20.4% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.7%Any 2 losses
87.5%
3.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%98.1%
0.3%98.0%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.1%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%56.4%
0.2%53.1%
0.2%47.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
63.9%
10.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.4%
0.4%99.3%
0.4%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.4%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.8%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.6%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.7%
0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
0.1%67.9%
0.2%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
0.3%65.2%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%63.0%
0.2%60.5%
0.2%59.2%
0.3%58.6%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
0.2%56.4%
0.3%56.3%
0.4%56.0%
0.4%54.1%
0.1%54.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
38.3%
17.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
0.2%94.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.4%
0.1%77.4%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
0.2%72.9%
0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.3%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.3%
0.3%67.1%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.1%
0.6%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%58.9%
0.5%58.3%
<0.1%58.0%
0.1%58.0%
0.3%57.9%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.1%
0.4%55.8%
0.1%55.8%
0.7%55.6%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%52.3%
0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.8%
0.5%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.3%3.6%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26