OregonDucks
5-3 T5th (3-2) in B1G
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Oregon's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Oregon has a 5.0% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Oregon need to do to reach the Big Ten Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Oregon's Big Ten Championship Game odds at 49.5%; even one more loss drops that to 0.6%.
What is the biggest game this week for Oregon's Big Ten Championship Game odds?
Oregon's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Ohio State would put its Big Ten Championship Game odds at 29.3%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L31-39 | |
| 3 | 9/18 | W84-0 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W41-27 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | L15-17 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W17-14 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L10-21 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W34-26 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:17% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 10.0% | 49.5% |
| 6-3 | 54.6% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 5.0% (+0.0%) | 5.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 4.6% (-0.4%) | 6.2% (+1.1%) | ||
| 4.9% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 29.3% (+24.3%) | 0.0% (-5.0%) | ||
| 4.9% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.1%) | ||
| 4.9% (-0.1%) | 5.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.4% (-0.7%) | 5.5% (+0.5%) | ||
| 5.2% (+0.2%) | 5.0% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Washington
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue
Northwestern
Minnesota
IllinoisOregonCCG: 42.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 29.1% • Scenario: 17.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG ProbabilityData from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02