OregonDucks
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
49.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Oregon's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Oregon has a 49.8% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:92% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:87% | ||
| 9/18 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:95% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:87% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:94% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/20 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 8.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 29.5% | 93.3% |
| 7-2 | 34.4% | 38.3% |
| 6-3 | 19.8% | 1.9% |
| 5-4 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 49.8% (+0.0%) | 49.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.3%Any 1 loss
93.9%
23.5%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.9%98.9%
0.6%98.8%
0.3%98.3%
1.3%97.4%
1.1%94.5%
0.9%92.7%
0.4%92.5%
11.1%92.4%
2.0%91.7%
3.6%Any 2 losses
51.1%
32.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.4%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%97.2%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.6%
0.1%94.5%
0.2%93.4%
0.4%92.4%
0.9%92.3%
1.6%91.9%
0.4%91.7%
0.2%91.4%
<0.1%91.4%
0.3%91.1%
1.2%90.6%
0.5%88.9%
<0.1%78.6%
0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%72.3%
0.2%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.8%
0.2%66.1%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
0.1%60.9%
<0.1%59.3%
0.1%58.4%
0.4%57.9%
0.2%55.3%
0.8%55.1%
0.2%52.2%
0.4%51.8%
0.6%51.1%
0.2%50.7%
2.3%49.7%
1.2%46.6%
0.6%45.9%
0.3%43.2%
0.1%41.6%
0.3%41.1%
1.7%39.8%
0.7%39.6%
0.6%36.3%
1.9%30.8%
1.2%25.8%
6.4%22.2%
3.5%Any 3 losses
18.6%
23.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.6%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.2%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.5%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.5%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.4%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
0.2%48.0%
0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.6%
0.2%47.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.9%
0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.2%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.9%
0.2%40.6%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
0.1%37.1%
<0.1%35.3%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.6%
0.2%30.9%
0.1%29.8%
0.2%28.5%
0.7%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
0.9%23.5%
0.5%23.5%
0.5%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
0.4%20.3%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
1.3%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.7%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
1.0%1.0%
1.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.8%
0.6%0.8%
2.1%0.7%
0.6%Any 4 losses
13.0%
3.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26