OregonDucks
1-1 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Oregon's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Oregon has a 11.8% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L31-39 | |
| 3 | 9/18 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:37% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:9% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 9.1% | 81.3% |
| 7-2 | 27.1% | 13.6% |
| 6-3 | 33.0% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 12.0% (+0.1%) | 11.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 11.8% (-0.0%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.6% (-0.3%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.9% (+0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.7% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (-0.0%) | 12.7% (+0.9%) | ||
| 11.7% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.5% (-0.3%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (+0.0%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.7% (-0.1%) | 11.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (+0.0%) | 11.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 11.5% (-0.4%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (-0.0%) | 11.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.8% (-0.1%) | 11.9% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
81.4%
8.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.4%
0.1%
96.9%
0.1%
96.8%
0.1%
93.5%
<0.1%
84.2%
0.3%
81.3%
6.0%
77.7%
0.3%
76.8%
<0.1%
73.8%
1.0%Any 2 losses
16.1%
25.3%98.7%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.8%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.5%
0.7%77.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%57.8%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%37.4%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%24.8%
<0.1%24.5%
0.2%24.3%
<0.1%24.0%
0.3%23.8%
1.5%23.5%
1.3%22.5%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.2%
1.0%20.6%
0.2%19.2%
0.2%18.2%
0.5%18.2%
<0.1%17.5%
0.9%16.9%
0.1%16.4%
0.5%15.0%
3.1%12.3%
0.5%9.2%
3.0%8.1%
10.2%Any 3 losses
8.3%
4.6%61.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.4%
0.2%22.3%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.5%
0.1%20.1%
<0.1%19.9%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%17.2%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
0.4%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
0.3%8.7%
1.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
0.3%0.5%
0.3%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17