James MadisonDukes
7-2 3rd (4-2) in SBC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
92.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is James Madison's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
James Madison has a 92.1% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does James Madison need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 86.5%.
What is the biggest game this week for James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Old Dominion win would boost them to 94.1%, while a Coastal Carolina win would leave them at 91.5%.
Can James Madison clinch a Sun Belt Conference Championship Game spot this week?
James Madison can clinch a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game as soon as this week if Georgia State, Marshall and Old Dominion all win.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W20-13 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W87-3 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W26-13 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W46-20 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W45-17 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W49-22 | |
| 8 | 10/22 | L31-34 | |
| 9 | 10/29 | L21-24 | |
| 10 | 11/05 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 80.9% | 100.0% |
| 5-3 | 18.1% | 61.5% |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 8.1% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5 | |||
| 92.1% (+0.0%) | 92.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 94.1% (+2.0%) | 91.5% (-0.6%) | ||
| 92.5% (+0.4%) | 91.9% (-0.2%) | ||
| 92.3% (+0.1%) | 92.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 92.8% (+0.7%) | 92.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 92.1% (-0.0%) | 92.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 92.2% (+0.0%) | 92.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia State
Marshall
Old DominionCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Old DominionCCG: 94.2% • Scenario: 23.3%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Georgia StateMarshallOld DominionData from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02