James MadisonDukes
2-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is James Madison's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
James Madison has a 46.2% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W20-13 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W87-3 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:65% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:92% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:68% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/22 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/29 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/05 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 25.9% | 78.8% |
| 6-2 | 32.6% | 42.1% |
| 5-3 | 21.9% | 15.0% |
| 4-4 | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| 3-5 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 46.2% (-0.0%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.1% (-0.2%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.4% (+0.2%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.1% (-0.2%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.0%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.1%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.1%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.9%Any 1 loss
85.8%
13.4%
100.0%
3.5%
100.0%
1.6%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
0.6%
96.9%
0.3%
85.1%
0.5%
81.8%
0.6%
81.5%
1.4%
76.9%
1.6%
55.5%
2.4%Any 2 losses
64.0%
25.9%100.0%
1.8%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%97.2%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.7%
0.3%95.8%
<0.1%86.1%
0.2%86.0%
0.3%86.0%
0.1%84.7%
0.6%83.8%
0.3%82.5%
0.2%82.5%
0.7%81.8%
0.1%81.8%
0.5%81.7%
0.8%81.2%
1.7%81.1%
0.3%77.8%
0.3%77.7%
1.9%77.4%
0.9%76.8%
0.5%56.6%
1.3%55.8%
2.9%55.4%
0.5%55.3%
0.8%38.4%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%32.5%
0.1%31.1%
0.1%20.7%
0.3%20.3%
0.1%19.8%
0.3%18.3%
0.3%17.9%
0.2%16.1%
0.3%15.6%
0.8%9.6%
0.5%9.6%
0.4%8.8%
1.2%7.3%
1.3%Any 3 losses
43.0%
25.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%86.3%
0.3%85.5%
<0.1%84.5%
0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.2%
0.2%83.7%
<0.1%83.4%
<0.1%83.3%
0.3%83.1%
<0.1%82.8%
0.1%82.6%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.4%
0.4%82.3%
0.2%82.0%
0.9%81.5%
0.2%81.2%
<0.1%80.7%
0.5%79.2%
0.4%78.1%
0.1%77.9%
1.0%77.8%
0.2%77.4%
0.3%76.9%
0.6%58.1%
0.3%56.9%
0.6%56.1%
0.4%55.9%
0.2%55.8%
1.5%55.0%
0.9%37.5%
<0.1%36.3%
<0.1%34.9%
0.1%34.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.8%
0.2%28.4%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.7%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
0.3%20.1%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%19.4%
0.1%19.4%
0.3%19.1%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
0.3%18.4%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
0.3%17.0%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%16.9%
<0.1%16.4%
0.3%16.3%
0.2%16.0%
0.9%15.8%
0.4%15.7%
0.4%15.2%
0.1%14.4%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.6%
0.2%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
0.5%9.9%
0.2%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
0.6%8.8%
0.1%8.6%
1.4%8.4%
0.6%8.4%
0.4%8.1%
0.7%7.7%
1.5%7.2%
0.3%6.7%
0.4%Any 4 losses
28.8%
12.8%100.0%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%87.9%
0.1%87.6%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.6%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.7%
0.2%82.6%
0.3%82.5%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.2%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.6%
0.2%78.4%
0.1%77.5%
0.3%56.8%
0.3%56.1%
0.2%55.8%
0.5%55.0%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.6%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.2%
<0.1%33.0%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.9%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.3%
0.2%21.6%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%18.7%
<0.1%18.6%
0.2%18.4%
0.2%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%18.0%
0.1%17.9%
0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.8%
0.5%16.5%
0.2%16.5%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.0%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%11.7%
0.3%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
0.2%10.5%
0.3%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.9%
0.7%8.9%
0.1%8.7%
0.2%8.6%
0.2%8.6%
0.4%8.5%
0.3%8.1%
0.8%8.0%
0.3%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
0.5%7.5%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17