James MadisonDukes
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is James Madison's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
James Madison has a 34.2% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 10/29 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/05 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.3% | 83.3% |
| 6-2 | 26.2% | 50.4% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 21.2% |
| 4-4 | 19.0% | 5.0% |
| 3-5 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
90.0%
3.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%85.9%
0.1%82.3%
0.3%81.4%
0.2%77.9%
0.3%60.1%
0.4%Any 2 losses
72.4%
10.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.1%
0.2%89.0%
<0.1%87.6%
0.1%87.4%
0.4%86.8%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
0.1%85.4%
0.2%84.7%
0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.1%
0.1%81.3%
0.3%81.1%
<0.1%80.8%
0.5%80.5%
0.3%80.1%
0.1%79.5%
0.1%78.9%
0.1%77.8%
0.1%71.7%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%67.4%
0.2%61.4%
0.2%60.3%
0.8%59.9%
0.2%57.6%
0.4%39.4%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.2%
0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%17.9%
0.2%17.3%
0.1%17.2%
0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.0%
0.1%8.5%
0.3%Any 3 losses
55.7%
18.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.3%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.9%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.5%
0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.7%
0.4%83.5%
0.2%83.3%
0.1%83.2%
0.2%82.2%
<0.1%82.0%
0.1%80.9%
0.5%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.4%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.7%
0.3%78.3%
0.1%77.8%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
0.3%76.7%
<0.1%76.4%
0.2%76.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.2%74.5%
0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%63.8%
0.7%63.6%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.2%62.1%
<0.1%61.0%
0.3%60.8%
0.4%60.7%
<0.1%59.9%
0.2%59.6%
0.3%59.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
0.1%53.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.9%
0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%23.9%
0.1%23.6%
0.2%22.8%
0.1%22.3%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%18.3%
<0.1%17.9%
0.2%17.6%
0.1%17.6%
0.3%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.4%
0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.1%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%12.0%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
0.4%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.5%8.9%
0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
42.0%
19.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.9%
0.2%84.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
0.1%84.0%
0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.3%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.4%
0.2%81.3%
0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.5%
0.2%80.4%
0.2%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%77.9%
0.3%77.8%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%64.6%
0.4%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.4%
0.2%60.1%
0.3%59.5%
<0.1%58.6%
0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.2%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.6%
0.2%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.4%
0.1%26.0%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.8%
0.2%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
0.3%22.6%
0.1%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.7%
0.2%19.1%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%16.1%
0.2%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.6%
0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.2%
0.2%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
0.2%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.8%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
0.3%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.2%
0.5%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
0.3%9.6%
0.4%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.3%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26