ToledoRockets
6-2 T3rd (3-1) in MAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Toledo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Toledo has a 62.6% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Toledo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Toledo need to do to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Toledo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 99.9%; even one more loss drops that to 32.5%.
What is the biggest game this week for Toledo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds?
Toledo's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Sacramento State would put its Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 63.1%, while a loss would drop them to 33.9%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/04 | L20-30 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W63-10 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W49-48 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W41-16 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W39-24 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | L8-23 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W34-14 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W45-38 | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:98% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:89% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 48.5% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 43.4% | 32.5% |
| 5-3 | 7.7% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 61.7% (-0.9%) | 68.0% (+5.4%) | ||
| 60.8% (-1.8%) | 63.4% (+0.8%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 62.6% (+0.1%) | 62.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 63.1% (+0.5%) | 33.9% (-28.7%) | ||
| 61.7% (-0.9%) | 63.7% (+1.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
AkronToledo
Eastern Michigan
Miami (OH)
Ball StateCCG: 74.8% • Scenario: 1.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronToledoMiami (OH)CCG: 72.8% • Scenario: 9.7%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02