ToledoRockets
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Toledo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Toledo has a 47.7% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Toledo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/04 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/04 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/11 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 11/20 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 19.6% | 98.8% |
| 6-2 | 30.6% | 67.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.8% | 9.0% |
| 4-4 | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% (-0.8%) | 48.7% (+1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
99.5%
4.0%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.2%
0.4%98.8%
0.2%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
0.4%98.5%
0.4%Any 2 losses
91.2%
12.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.4%99.5%
0.6%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.3%99.3%
0.1%99.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
0.3%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.5%
0.2%98.4%
0.8%98.4%
0.4%98.1%
0.7%97.8%
<0.1%97.2%
0.5%96.3%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.1%
0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.5%
0.1%69.2%
0.1%69.2%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.4%
0.3%65.7%
0.1%63.8%
0.1%62.5%
0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.7%
0.1%58.9%
0.1%58.6%
0.3%53.2%
0.3%Any 3 losses
72.7%
22.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.5%
0.4%99.3%
0.1%99.0%
0.7%98.9%
0.4%98.8%
0.4%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
0.4%98.5%
0.3%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.1%
0.2%98.1%
0.9%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
0.3%97.6%
0.1%97.4%
0.9%97.2%
<0.1%97.2%
0.3%96.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%84.9%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%78.4%
0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%76.1%
0.1%76.0%
0.2%75.9%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.1%
0.2%73.1%
<0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.7%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%71.3%
0.2%71.2%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.3%
0.2%70.2%
0.2%70.1%
0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%68.4%
<0.1%68.3%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%68.3%
0.3%68.3%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
0.2%67.9%
0.3%67.7%
<0.1%67.0%
0.2%65.8%
0.5%64.9%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.4%
0.1%63.1%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%60.8%
0.3%60.7%
0.2%60.6%
0.2%60.3%
0.5%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.8%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.1%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
0.4%48.7%
0.5%48.5%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
48.3%
23.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.3%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.4%98.2%
0.4%97.6%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.1%
0.1%78.7%
0.2%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.2%
0.3%76.5%
0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.4%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
0.3%74.3%
0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.9%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.2%71.0%
0.3%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.5%
0.3%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
0.4%68.5%
0.2%68.2%
<0.1%68.1%
0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%64.7%
0.6%64.6%
0.3%64.1%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.0%
0.4%60.9%
0.1%60.6%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
0.5%59.9%
0.2%59.3%
<0.1%59.1%
0.2%58.4%
0.2%57.2%
0.2%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.9%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
0.3%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
0.7%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.9%
0.3%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26