Toledo

ToledoRockets

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

68.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Toledo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

Toledo has a 68.7% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Toledo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

ToledoSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/04
@Michigan StMSU
L20-30
29/12
vsCentral ConnecticutCCSU
W63-10
39/19
vsTempleTEM
Win prob:72%
49/26
vsSan Diego StSDSU
Win prob:57%
510/03
@Ball StBALL
Win prob:87%
610/10
vsBuffaloBUF
Win prob:90%
710/17
@E MichiganEMU
Win prob:88%
810/24
vsW MichiganWMU
Win prob:51%
1011/04
@Sacramento StSAC
Win prob:96%
1111/11
vsMassachusettsMASS
Win prob:84%
1211/20
vsBowling GreenBGSU
Win prob:95%
1311/27
@OhioOHIO
Win prob:68%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ToledoRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
18.3%
100.0%
7-1
38.8%
97.1%
6-2
29.6%
42.3%
5-3
10.9%
2.8%
4-4
2.2%
0%
3-5
0.3%
0%
2-6
0.0%
0%
1-7
0%
0%
0-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Toledo CCG Opponents

if Toledo makes the CCG

WMUW Michigan
72.6%
OHIOOhio
10.3%
MASSMassachusetts
7.0%
M-OHMiami OH
6.2%
BUFBuffalo
1.4%
AKRAkron
1.1%
BALLBall St
0.6%
CMUC Michigan
0.4%
EMUE Michigan
0.3%
BGSUBowling Green
0.1%
KENTKent
0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ToledoThis Week's Impact

Game
ToledoCCG OddsAway Wins
ToledoCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
68.8%
(+0.0%)		68.7%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
69.0%
(+0.3%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
69.9%
(+1.2%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
68.6%
(-0.1%)		68.7%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
68.8%
(+0.0%)		68.7%
(+0.0%)
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
68.7%
(-0.0%)		68.8%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
68.8%
(+0.1%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
68.3%
(-0.4%)		68.8%
(+0.0%)
StonehillSTO@MassachusettsMASS
68.8%
(+0.1%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
Ball StBALL@LibertyLIB
68.9%
(+0.1%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
68.8%
(+0.0%)		68.7%
(-0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
68.7%
(+0.0%)		68.8%
(+0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
68.7%
(-0.0%)		69.1%
(+0.4%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ToledoLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Toledo CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.4%
Any 1 loss
98.1%
24.4%
Temple
100.0%
2.9%
San Diego St
100.0%
5.7%
Sacramento St
99.0%
0.3%
Ball St
99.0%
1.1%
E Michigan
98.6%
1.1%
Massachusetts
98.3%
1.4%
Ohio
97.7%
3.5%
Bowling Green
96.8%
0.4%
Buffalo
96.8%
0.8%
W Michigan
96.1%
7.2%
Any 2 losses
77.1%
32.5%
San Diego StTemple
100.0%
2.2%
Sacramento StTemple
99.2%
0.1%
Ball StTemple
99.1%
0.4%
Ball StSan Diego St
99.0%
0.8%
Sacramento StSan Diego St
98.9%
0.2%
E MichiganTemple
98.7%
0.4%
E MichiganSan Diego St
98.6%
0.8%
MassachusettsTemple
98.5%
0.5%
MassachusettsSan Diego St
98.3%
1.1%
OhioSan Diego St
97.8%
2.7%
OhioTemple
97.7%
1.4%
Bowling GreenSan Diego St
97.4%
0.3%
Bowling GreenTemple
96.9%
0.1%
BuffaloTemple
96.8%
0.3%
BuffaloSan Diego St
96.2%
0.6%
San Diego StW Michigan
96.0%
5.5%
TempleW Michigan
95.9%
2.9%
E MichiganSacramento St
79.9%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento St
78.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento St
76.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE Michigan
74.7%
<0.1%
Ball StE Michigan
74.3%
0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento St
72.6%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling Green
71.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloE Michigan
70.4%
0.1%
Sacramento StW Michigan
67.9%
0.3%
Bowling GreenBuffalo
65.1%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffalo
64.6%
0.1%
E MichiganW Michigan
60.4%
1.0%
Ball StW Michigan
60.3%
1.0%
MassachusettsSacramento St
57.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenW Michigan
56.1%
0.4%
Ball StMassachusetts
50.0%
0.2%
BuffaloW Michigan
49.2%
0.8%
OhioSacramento St
47.8%
0.1%
Bowling GreenOhio
47.3%
0.2%
E MichiganMassachusetts
46.6%
0.2%
Ball StOhio
44.6%
0.5%
Bowling GreenMassachusetts
44.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusetts
42.1%
0.2%
BuffaloOhio
41.3%
0.4%
E MichiganOhio
40.7%
0.5%
MassachusettsOhio
33.0%
0.7%
MassachusettsW Michigan
30.9%
1.3%
OhioW Michigan
25.1%
3.4%
Any 3 losses
46.0%
23.2%
Ball StSan Diego StTemple
99.3%
0.3%
E MichiganSan Diego StTemple
98.7%
0.3%
Sacramento StSan Diego StTemple
98.6%
<0.1%
MassachusettsSan Diego StTemple
98.5%
0.4%
OhioSan Diego StTemple
97.5%
1.1%
Bowling GreenSan Diego StTemple
97.0%
0.1%
BuffaloSan Diego StTemple
96.5%
0.2%
San Diego StTempleW Michigan
96.1%
2.2%
Bowling GreenSacramento StSan Diego St
86.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StTemple
81.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StTemple
80.7%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StSan Diego St
77.4%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StTemple
77.0%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganTemple
76.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StSan Diego St
76.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StSan Diego St
75.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganSan Diego St
74.3%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganSan Diego St
73.2%
0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenTemple
70.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenSan Diego St
70.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganSan Diego St
70.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganTemple
69.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StTemple
68.7%
<0.1%
Sacramento StSan Diego StW Michigan
67.2%
0.2%
Sacramento StTempleW Michigan
67.1%
0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloTemple
66.5%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloTemple
65.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloSan Diego St
65.2%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloSan Diego St
61.5%
0.1%
E MichiganTempleW Michigan
61.4%
0.4%
E MichiganSan Diego StW Michigan
59.9%
0.8%
Ball StSan Diego StW Michigan
59.9%
0.8%
Ball StTempleW Michigan
59.1%
0.4%
MassachusettsSacramento StSan Diego St
58.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenTempleW Michigan
57.0%
0.1%
Bowling GreenSan Diego StW Michigan
56.8%
0.3%
OhioSacramento StTemple
54.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMassachusettsTemple
53.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsTemple
52.9%
<0.1%
OhioSacramento StSan Diego St
52.3%
0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsSan Diego St
51.7%
0.1%
MassachusettsSacramento StTemple
50.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloSan Diego StW Michigan
49.2%
0.6%
Ball StOhioTemple
49.0%
0.2%
BuffaloTempleW Michigan
48.8%
0.3%
Bowling GreenOhioTemple
48.4%
<0.1%
E MichiganMassachusettsSan Diego St
47.9%
0.2%
Bowling GreenOhioSan Diego St
47.1%
0.1%
Ball StOhioSan Diego St
46.7%
0.4%
Bowling GreenMassachusettsSan Diego St
46.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganMassachusettsTemple
46.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsSan Diego St
44.2%
0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsTemple
43.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloOhioTemple
42.6%
0.1%
BuffaloOhioSan Diego St
40.0%
0.3%
E MichiganOhioSan Diego St
40.0%
0.4%
E MichiganOhioTemple
38.3%
0.2%
MassachusettsOhioSan Diego St
34.3%
0.5%
MassachusettsOhioTemple
33.9%
0.3%
MassachusettsSan Diego StW Michigan
31.4%
1.1%
MassachusettsTempleW Michigan
30.8%
0.5%
OhioTempleW Michigan
24.6%
1.3%
OhioSan Diego StW Michigan
24.5%
2.6%
Ball StBowling GreenSacramento St
16.7%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganSacramento St
10.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganSacramento St
10.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloSacramento St
10.5%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StW Michigan
9.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloSacramento St
9.6%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenE Michigan
8.6%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StW Michigan
8.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganW Michigan
8.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganW Michigan
6.7%
0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsSacramento St
6.5%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganW Michigan
6.3%
0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganMassachusetts
5.8%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenW Michigan
5.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StW Michigan
5.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StW Michigan
5.4%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloE Michigan
5.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloOhioSacramento St
4.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloE Michigan
4.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloW Michigan
4.5%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloW Michigan
4.4%
0.1%
Ball StOhioSacramento St
4.4%
<0.1%
E MichiganOhioSacramento St
3.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloMassachusetts
3.7%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsSacramento St
3.5%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganOhio
3.4%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloMassachusetts
3.2%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenMassachusetts
3.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMassachusettsW Michigan
2.9%
<0.1%
MassachusettsSacramento StW Michigan
2.9%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganMassachusetts
2.9%
<0.1%
E MichiganMassachusettsW Michigan
2.8%
0.2%
Ball StMassachusettsW Michigan
2.8%
0.2%
E MichiganMassachusettsSacramento St
2.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganOhio
2.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenOhioW Michigan
2.6%
0.2%
OhioSacramento StW Michigan
2.4%
0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganOhio
2.4%
<0.1%
Ball StOhioW Michigan
2.3%
0.5%
BuffaloE MichiganMassachusetts
2.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganSacramento St
2.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganOhioW Michigan
2.3%
0.5%
MassachusettsOhioSacramento St
2.2%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenBuffalo
2.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMassachusettsOhio
2.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsW Michigan
2.0%
0.1%
E MichiganMassachusettsOhio
1.8%
0.1%
BuffaloOhioW Michigan
1.7%
0.4%
Bowling GreenOhioSacramento St
1.4%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenOhio
1.4%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloOhio
1.3%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsOhio
1.3%
0.1%
MassachusettsOhioW Michigan
1.1%
0.6%
BuffaloMassachusettsOhio
0.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloOhio
0.6%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ToledoCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com