UCLABruins
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is UCLA's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
UCLA has a 0.9% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UCLA's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W45-24 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:80% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:15% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/13 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 99.8% |
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 56.6% |
| 7-2 | 5.9% | 4.9% |
| 6-3 | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.8%) | 1.1% (+0.2%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
57.1%
0.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
72.0%
<0.1%
70.7%
<0.1%
69.4%
<0.1%
65.0%
0.3%
64.9%
<0.1%
61.9%
<0.1%
60.3%
<0.1%
49.6%
0.2%
39.8%
0.2%Any 2 losses
5.9%
5.3%73.5%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%13.4%
0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%11.4%
0.1%11.4%
0.3%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
1.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
1.0%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
0.7%Any 3 losses
4.7%
0.6%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17