UTSARoadrunners

7-1 T1st (4-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

76.9%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is UTSA's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

UTSA has a 76.9% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does UTSA need to do to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 95.6%.

What is the biggest game this week for UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds?

UTSA's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Florida Atlantic would put its American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 84.4%, while a loss would drop them to 52.6%.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsUT Rio Grande ValleyRGV	W45-16
2	9/12	@Texas StateTXST	W31-26
3	9/19	@TexasTEX	L6-30
4	9/26	vsColorado StateCSU	W59-45
5	10/03	@RiceRICE	W16-14
6	10/08	vsSouth FloridaUSF	W31-24
7	10/17	vsNavyNAVY	W38-34
8	10/24	@TulaneTULN	W42-19
10	11/05	@Florida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:76%
11	11/14	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:52%
12	11/21	@UABUAB	Win prob:84%
13	11/28	vsTulsaTLSA	Win prob:73%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	24.4%	100.0%
7-1	43.6%	95.6%
6-2	25.4%	41.9%
5-3	6.0%	1.2%
4-4	0.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

59.7%

33.2%

2.5%

2.5%

1.9%

0.2%

<0.1%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5
	UTSAUTSA@Florida AtlanticFAU	84.4% (+7.5%)	52.6% (-24.2%)
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	South FloridaUSF@East CarolinaECU	77.5% (+0.6%)	76.3% (-0.5%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	TulsaTLSA@TulaneTULN	78.5% (+1.6%)	75.6% (-1.3%)
	CharlotteCLT@UABUAB	74.2% (-2.6%)	77.6% (+0.8%)
	TempleTEM@NavyNAVY	73.8% (-3.1%)	78.1% (+1.2%)
	RiceRICE@North TexasUNT	80.7% (+3.8%)	76.6% (-0.2%)
	Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY	76.9% (+0.1%)	76.8% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Tulsa

Rice

Navy

East Carolina

UAB

UTSA

CCG: 91.1% • Scenario: 0.5%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UTSA

CCG: 84.2% • Scenario: 76.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

24.4%

Any 1 loss

95.6%

43.6%

99.9%

9.3%

99.9%

7.6%

99.8%

4.6%

91.5%

22.2%

Any 2 losses

41.9%

25.4%

50.7%

1.8%

48.9%

1.4%

48.6%

2.9%

40.9%

8.4%

40.0%

6.8%

36.1%

4.1%

Any 3 losses

1.2%

6.0%

1.3%

1.6%

1.2%

0.5%

1.1%

2.6%

1.0%

1.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com