UT San Antonio

UTSARoadrunners

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is UTSA's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

UTSA has a 12.5% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UT San AntonioSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
Win prob:90%
9/12
Win prob:42%
9/19
Win prob:2%
9/26
Win prob:71%
10/03
Win prob:63%
10/08
Win prob:46%
10/17
Win prob:45%
10/24
Win prob:28%
11/05
Win prob:58%
11/14
Win prob:58%
11/21
Win prob:67%
11/28
Win prob:64%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.5%
100.0%
7-1
4.2%
97.2%
6-2
13.9%
51.6%
5-3
25.5%
2.7%
4-4
27.6%
0%
3-5
18.9%
0%
2-6
7.5%
0%
1-7
1.8%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UT San Antonio CCG Opponents

if UT San Antonio makes the CCG

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioThis Week's Impact

Game
UT San AntonioCCG OddsAway
UT San AntonioCCG OddsHome
12.5%
(+0.0%)
12.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UT San Antonio CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.1%
0.2%
Texas
100.0%
0.1%
South Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
North Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
FL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Navy
100.0%
<0.1%
UT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulane
85.7%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
96.1%
1.4%
Colorado StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas St
100.0%
0.2%
RiceTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
UABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas
99.4%
0.2%
South FloridaTexas
98.4%
0.2%
North TexasTexas
97.8%
<0.1%
TexasTulsa
97.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas
97.1%
0.1%
TexasTulane
94.4%
0.3%
South FloridaTexas St
90.9%
<0.1%
Texas StTulane
85.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavy
80.0%
<0.1%
NavyNorth Texas
80.0%
<0.1%
TulaneTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
NavySouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
RiceTulane
57.1%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulane
54.5%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulane
45.5%
<0.1%
North TexasTulane
40.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
69.3%
6.0%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTexas St
100.0%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsaUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTexas St
99.3%
0.1%
TexasTexas StUAB
98.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulane
98.7%
0.1%
North TexasTexasTexas St
98.4%
0.1%
South FloridaTexasTexas St
97.4%
0.2%
TexasTexas StTulsa
96.2%
0.1%
Colorado StTexasUAB
96.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StTulane
96.0%
0.5%
NavyTexasTexas St
95.7%
0.2%
Colorado StNavyTexas
93.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexas
92.9%
<0.1%
NavyTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
90.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
89.5%
<0.1%
TexasTulsaUAB
83.9%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUAB
79.6%
<0.1%
RiceTexasUAB
79.1%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulsa
78.0%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexas St
75.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexas
74.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StTulane
71.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexas
69.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasUAB
68.8%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas StTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas
65.1%
0.1%
South FloridaTexasUAB
65.1%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulsa
63.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulsa
62.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas St
60.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneUAB
60.0%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneUAB
59.2%
0.2%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas
58.4%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulsa
57.6%
0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulane
56.6%
0.3%
NavyTexasUAB
56.2%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas
56.1%
0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexas
54.4%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulane
53.7%
0.2%
NavyNorth TexasTexas
53.6%
0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulsa
53.5%
0.1%
TexasTulaneTulsa
52.8%
0.2%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexas
52.4%
0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas St
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulane
49.8%
0.2%
NavyRiceTexas
45.5%
0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexas
42.2%
0.2%
South FloridaTexasTulane
39.0%
0.4%
NavyTexasTulane
36.7%
0.4%
Texas StTulaneTulsa
36.4%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas StTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexas St
33.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas StTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTulane
25.0%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTulane
25.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexas St
16.7%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulane
16.7%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
32.1%
14.1%
RiceTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StUABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceSouth FloridaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTexas StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexas StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceSouth FloridaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StTulsaUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas StTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyNorth TexasTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexas StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasTexas St
98.0%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
98.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
95.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTexas StTulane
95.6%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTexas StTulsa
95.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasTexas St
94.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
94.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasTexas St
94.2%
0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTexas StUT Rio Grande Valley
93.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
88.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
88.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
83.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticRiceTexas
81.0%
<0.1%
TexasTulsaUABUT Rio Grande Valley
80.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTexas StUAB
76.8%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasRiceTexas
76.2%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
75.9%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
75.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasTulsa
75.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexas StTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexas StTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasUAB
75.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTexas StTulsa
74.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasTexas St
73.5%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StTulsaUAB
72.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTexas StTulsa
71.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasUAB
71.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulsaUAB
70.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasTexas St
70.2%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasTexas St
70.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
70.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTexas StUAB
69.0%
0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasTulsa
68.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTexas StUAB
68.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
66.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth FloridaTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulaneUAB
66.1%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTexas StUAB
64.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
62.5%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
60.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasTexas St
60.1%
0.2%
North TexasTexasTexas StTulsa
60.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas
60.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
60.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasTulsa
59.1%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
58.3%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
58.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
58.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyRiceTexas
57.8%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneUABUT Rio Grande Valley
57.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNavyTexas
56.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceSouth FloridaTexas
56.7%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasTexas St
56.6%
0.1%
RiceTexasTexas StTulane
56.2%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
55.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyNorth TexasTexas
55.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTexas StTulane
55.0%
0.4%
Colorado StRiceTexasTulane
54.5%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
54.5%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTexas StTulsa
53.6%
0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasTulane
53.5%
0.1%
TexasTexas StTulaneUAB
53.3%
0.2%
NavyRiceTexasTexas St
53.1%
0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasTexas St
53.0%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTulaneTulsa
52.7%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTexas StUAB
52.3%
0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasTexas St
52.3%
0.2%
Colorado StFL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas
51.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasTulsa
51.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas
50.0%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas StTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTulaneUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexas StTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTulaneTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas St
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulsaUT Rio Grande Valley
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTulaneUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTexas StTulane
49.3%
0.4%
NavyTexasTexas StTulsa
48.1%
0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasTulane
47.8%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasTexas St
47.8%
0.2%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasUAB
47.6%
<0.1%
TexasTexas StTulaneTulsa
46.0%
0.3%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
45.5%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasUT Rio Grande Valley
42.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
42.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth FloridaTexas
41.9%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
41.7%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexasTexas St
40.6%
0.3%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexas StTulane
40.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
39.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
37.5%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTexas StTulane
36.5%
0.6%
Colorado StNavyTexasTulane
35.4%
0.1%
NavyTexasTexas StTulane
34.6%
0.6%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasTulane
34.5%
0.2%
North TexasTexasUABUT Rio Grande Valley
33.3%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulaneUT Rio Grande Valley
31.8%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas StTulaneUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas StTulane
12.5%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasUAB
10.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas StTulane
10.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasTulsa
9.8%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulsaUAB
9.5%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexas StTulane
9.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasUAB
8.2%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulsaUAB
6.7%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasTulsa
6.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasRiceTexas
6.3%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
5.3%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulaneUAB
4.8%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyRiceTexas
4.6%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulaneUAB
4.4%
0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulaneUAB
4.4%
0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
4.3%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneTulsaUAB
4.3%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexasTulsa
4.2%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavySouth FloridaTexas
4.0%
0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulsaUAB
3.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasTulane
3.5%
0.2%
North TexasRiceTexasTulane
3.5%
0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasUAB
3.3%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexasUAB
3.3%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulaneTulsa
3.2%
0.1%
NavyTexasTulaneTulsa
3.1%
0.2%
NavySouth FloridaTexasTulsa
2.8%
0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasTulane
2.6%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasUAB
2.6%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulaneUAB
2.5%
0.2%
NavyRiceTexasTulane
2.4%
0.3%
NavyRiceTexasUAB
2.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulaneTulsa
2.3%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasTulane
2.3%
0.3%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasTulane
2.2%
0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasUAB
2.2%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasUAB
1.7%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasTulane
1.7%
0.2%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasTulane
1.6%
0.3%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
1.6%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceSouth FloridaTexas
1.5%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasRiceTexas
1.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulaneTulsa
1.4%
0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulaneUAB
1.4%
0.2%
North TexasTexasTulaneTulsa
1.3%
0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasTulane
1.3%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNavyNorth TexasTexas
1.0%
0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexasTulane
1.0%
0.5%
NavyRiceSouth FloridaTexas
0.9%
0.1%
NavyNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas
0.8%
0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com