UTSARoadrunners
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is UTSA's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
UTSA has a 12.5% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:2% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:28% | ||
| 11/05 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.2% | 97.2% |
| 6-2 | 13.9% | 51.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.5% | 2.7% |
| 4-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12.5% (+0.0%) | 12.5% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.1%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
96.1%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.4%
0.2%97.8%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%94.4%
0.3%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
69.3%
6.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
0.1%98.4%
0.1%97.4%
0.2%96.2%
0.1%96.0%
<0.1%96.0%
0.5%95.7%
0.2%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
0.1%65.1%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.2%
0.2%58.4%
<0.1%57.6%
0.1%56.6%
0.3%56.2%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.7%
0.2%53.6%
0.1%53.5%
0.1%52.8%
0.2%52.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%45.5%
0.1%42.2%
0.2%39.0%
0.4%36.7%
0.4%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
32.1%
14.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.6%
0.2%95.2%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%70.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.1%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.6%
0.1%56.2%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.0%
0.4%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.6%
0.1%53.5%
0.1%53.3%
0.2%53.1%
0.1%53.0%
0.2%52.7%
<0.1%52.3%
0.1%52.3%
0.2%51.9%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.4%48.1%
0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.8%
0.2%47.6%
<0.1%46.0%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.6%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
0.6%35.4%
0.1%34.6%
0.6%34.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.5%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26