UT San Antonio

UTSARoadrunners

2-0 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is UTSA's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

UTSA has a 15.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UTSA's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UT San AntonioSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsUT Rio Grande ValleyRGV
W45-16
29/12
@Texas StTXST
W31-26
39/19
@TexasTEX
Win prob:1%
49/26
vsColorado StCSU
Win prob:64%
510/03
@RiceRICE
Win prob:76%
610/08
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:45%
710/17
vsNavyNAVY
Win prob:64%
810/24
@TulaneTULN
Win prob:32%
1011/05
@FL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:65%
1111/14
vsNorth TexasUNT
Win prob:43%
1211/21
@UABUAB
Win prob:78%
1311/28
vsTulsaTLSA
Win prob:57%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.9%
100.0%
7-1
6.3%
97.3%
6-2
18.2%
43.3%
5-3
28.4%
0.8%
4-4
26.1%
0%
3-5
14.4%
0%
2-6
4.7%
0%
1-7
0.8%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible UT San Antonio CCG Opponents

if UT San Antonio makes the CCG

USFSouth Florida
31.7%
MEMMemphis
17.2%
UNTNorth Texas
16.2%
TULNTulane
14.6%
ECUEast Carolina
6.6%
TLSATulsa
6.2%
ARMYArmy
3.0%
TEMTemple
2.4%
NAVYNavy
1.7%
FAUFL Atlantic
0.5%
RICERice
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioThis Week's Impact

Game
UT San AntonioCCG OddsAway Wins
UT San AntonioCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
15.1%
(-0.0%)		15.2%
(+0.1%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
15.0%
(-0.1%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
15.1%
(-0.0%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
15.2%
(+0.1%)		15.1%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
15.1%
(+0.0%)		15.1%
(-0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
15.1%
(-0.0%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)
Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF
15.2%
(+0.1%)		15.1%
(-0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM
15.2%
(+0.1%)		15.1%
(-0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
15.1%
(+0.0%)		15.0%
(-0.1%)
East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA
15.0%
(-0.1%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
15.1%
(-0.0%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
14.9%
(-0.2%)		15.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UT San Antonio CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.7%
0.6%
Texas
100.0%
0.6%
Colorado St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
UAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulane
97.4%
<0.1%
Tulsa
97.1%
<0.1%
Navy
96.8%
<0.1%
South Florida
93.9%
<0.1%
North Texas
93.3%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
96.3%
4.4%
Colorado StTexas
100.0%
0.3%
Colorado StFL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRice
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas
98.9%
0.3%
RiceTexas
98.8%
0.2%
TexasUAB
98.6%
0.2%
FL AtlanticTexas
98.6%
0.3%
TexasTulsa
98.0%
0.4%
Colorado StSouth Florida
97.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth Texas
97.3%
<0.1%
TexasTulane
97.1%
1.2%
North TexasTexas
96.6%
0.7%
Colorado StTulane
96.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTulsa
95.8%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas
95.8%
0.7%
FL AtlanticNavy
88.2%
<0.1%
NavyRice
84.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRice
81.8%
<0.1%
North TexasUAB
80.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsa
72.4%
<0.1%
RiceTulsa
62.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulane
57.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsa
56.5%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
55.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth Florida
54.8%
<0.1%
NavyTulane
53.2%
<0.1%
RiceTulane
52.8%
<0.1%
NavyNorth Texas
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
47.2%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
45.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth Texas
45.2%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
42.6%
<0.1%
NavySouth Florida
40.8%
<0.1%
North TexasTulane
40.6%
<0.1%
TulaneUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRice
38.9%
<0.1%
TulaneTulsa
35.6%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
31.2%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulane
21.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
51.9%
13.8%
Colorado StRiceTexas
99.3%
0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexas
99.1%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasUAB
98.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexas
98.5%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTulsa
97.9%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTulane
97.3%
0.7%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas
96.5%
0.4%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexas
95.0%
0.4%
Colorado StFL AtlanticRice
85.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StTulsaUAB
83.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyUAB
80.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyRice
75.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceUAB
75.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexasUAB
73.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasUAB
72.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexas
71.4%
0.1%
NavyRiceTexas
66.9%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas
66.0%
0.2%
NavyTexasUAB
63.9%
<0.1%
TexasTulsaUAB
63.6%
0.1%
Colorado StRiceTulsa
62.5%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulsa
61.2%
0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulsa
60.5%
0.2%
Colorado StFL AtlanticUAB
60.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTulane
59.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTulsa
58.8%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTulane
57.9%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulane
55.9%
0.4%
NavyTexasTulsa
53.9%
0.3%
TexasTulaneUAB
53.6%
0.3%
FL AtlanticTexasTulane
53.5%
0.6%
North TexasRiceTexas
51.6%
0.2%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas
51.4%
0.4%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTulaneUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasRice
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUAB
50.0%
0.2%
Colorado StTulaneTulsa
48.9%
<0.1%
NavyTexasTulane
48.3%
0.7%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas
47.6%
0.4%
South FloridaTexasUAB
46.2%
0.2%
RiceSouth FloridaTexas
45.9%
0.2%
NavyNorth TexasTexas
45.8%
0.4%
Colorado StFL AtlanticSouth Florida
43.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNavy
42.9%
<0.1%
TexasTulaneTulsa
42.8%
0.9%
Colorado StNavyTulane
42.5%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulsa
41.9%
0.5%
NavySouth FloridaTexas
40.6%
0.4%
Colorado StNorth TexasTulane
40.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNorth Texas
40.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTulsa
37.9%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulsa
36.5%
0.5%
Colorado StRiceSouth Florida
36.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyNorth Texas
36.4%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasTulane
34.8%
1.5%
Colorado StNorth TexasSouth Florida
32.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTulane
31.9%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexasTulane
28.7%
1.4%
Colorado StNorth TexasTulsa
28.2%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexas
27.6%
0.9%
FL AtlanticNavyUAB
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth Florida
13.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceSouth Florida
7.7%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaUAB
7.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTulsa
7.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTulane
6.5%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaUAB
4.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavySouth Florida
4.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulaneUAB
4.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTulsa
4.5%
<0.1%
NavyTulaneUAB
4.2%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceSouth Florida
3.9%
<0.1%
North TexasTulaneUAB
2.4%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTulsa
2.4%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulaneTulsa
2.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTulsa
1.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTulane
1.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTulane
1.3%
<0.1%
North TexasTulaneTulsa
0.8%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
15.5%
19.0%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasUAB
72.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticRiceTexas
71.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasUAB
66.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasUAB
65.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNavyTexas
64.7%
0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasTulsa
64.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyRiceTexas
63.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasTulsa
59.2%
0.1%
Colorado StTexasTulsaUAB
58.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTexasTulsa
54.4%
0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexasTulane
53.6%
0.2%
Colorado StNorth TexasRiceTexas
52.9%
0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasUAB
52.8%
0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticTexasTulane
52.5%
0.4%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNorth TexasTexas
52.3%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTulaneUAB
51.7%
0.2%
Colorado StNavyNorth TexasTexas
47.9%
0.2%
Colorado StNavyTexasTulane
47.4%
0.4%
Colorado StFL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexas
47.2%
0.2%
Colorado StRiceSouth FloridaTexas
44.7%
0.1%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasUAB
44.3%
0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth FloridaTexas
42.3%
0.2%
Colorado StTexasTulaneTulsa
42.3%
0.5%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasTulsa
40.7%
0.3%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
36.2%
0.3%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasTulane
34.9%
0.9%
Colorado StSouth FloridaTexasTulane
29.1%
0.8%
Colorado StNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas
26.8%
0.5%
Colorado StNavyRiceTulsa
25.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFL AtlanticNavySouth Florida
12.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavyTulaneUAB
8.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth FloridaUAB
8.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyRiceTexas
3.6%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasUAB
3.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasUAB
2.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulsaUAB
2.9%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexasUAB
2.7%
<0.1%
RiceTexasTulsaUAB
2.6%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasUAB
2.5%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceSouth FloridaTexas
2.4%
0.1%
Colorado StNavySouth FloridaTulane
2.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasUAB
2.3%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasTexasUAB
2.2%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasTulsa
2.2%
0.1%
FL AtlanticTexasTulaneUAB
2.1%
0.2%
RiceTexasTulaneUAB
2.0%
0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasTulane
2.0%
0.2%
NavyTexasTulsaUAB
1.9%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexasTulsa
1.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceTexasTulsa
1.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasUAB
1.7%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasRiceTexas
1.6%
0.1%
NavyNorth TexasRiceTexas
1.6%
0.1%
NavyRiceSouth FloridaTexas
1.4%
0.1%
North TexasRiceTexasTulsa
1.4%
0.2%
NavyRiceTexasTulane
1.4%
0.2%
North TexasTexasTulsaUAB
1.4%
0.2%
NavyTexasTulaneUAB
1.4%
0.2%
North TexasTexasTulaneUAB
1.4%
0.4%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasUAB
1.4%
0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTexasUAB
1.3%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNavySouth FloridaTexas
1.2%
0.2%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
1.2%
0.2%
RiceTexasTulaneTulsa
1.1%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasTulsa
1.0%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNavyTexasTulane
0.9%
0.4%
North TexasRiceSouth FloridaTexas
0.9%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNavyNorth TexasTexas
0.9%
0.2%
TexasTulaneTulsaUAB
0.9%
0.3%
South FloridaTexasTulaneUAB
0.9%
0.4%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasTulsa
0.8%
0.3%
FL AtlanticTexasTulaneTulsa
0.8%
0.5%
South FloridaTexasTulsaUAB
0.8%
0.1%
NavyTexasTulaneTulsa
0.7%
0.5%
NavySouth FloridaTexasTulsa
0.7%
0.3%
NavyNorth TexasTexasTulsa
0.7%
0.3%
North TexasRiceTexasTulane
0.7%
0.5%
RiceSouth FloridaTexasTulane
0.7%
0.4%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasTexasTulane
0.7%
0.8%
NavyNorth TexasTexasTulane
0.6%
0.9%
FL AtlanticSouth FloridaTexasTulane
0.6%
0.8%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas
0.6%
0.5%
NavyNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas
0.6%
0.5%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexasUAB
0.5%
0.3%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UT San AntonioCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com