North TexasMean Green
6-2 T1st (4-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
67.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is North Texas's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
North Texas has a 67.6% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Texas's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does North Texas need to do to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts North Texas's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 77.2%.
What is the biggest game this week for North Texas's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds?
North Texas's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Rice would put its American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 69.5%, while a loss would drop them to 33.9%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L16-52 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W44-6 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L35-49 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W63-14 | |
| 5 | 10/01 | W45-44 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W50-10 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W49-39 | |
| 9 | 10/29 | W48-41 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 27.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 48.5% | 77.2% |
| 6-2 | 21.7% | 11.3% |
| 5-3 | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5 | |||
| 65.9% (-1.7%) | 73.2% (+5.6%) | ||
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 67.2% (-0.4%) | 68.0% (+0.4%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 69.1% (+1.5%) | 66.4% (-1.2%) | ||
| 68.0% (+0.3%) | 67.5% (-0.1%) | ||
| 65.8% (-1.8%) | 68.3% (+0.7%) | ||
| 33.9% (-33.7%) | 69.5% (+1.9%) | ||
| 67.7% (+0.1%) | 67.6% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
TulsaNorth Texas
Navy
East Carolina
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticCCG: 78.0% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
North TexasCCG: 69.8% • Scenario: 94.6%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02