North Texas

North TexasMean Green

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

9.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is North Texas's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

North Texas has a 9.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Texas's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

North TexasSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
@IndianaIU
Win prob:3%
9/12
vsUNLVUNLV
Win prob:37%
9/19
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:39%
9/26
vsHouston ChristianHCU
Win prob:90%
10/01
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:50%
10/10
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:74%
10/24
@NavyNAVY
Win prob:32%
10/29
vsFL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:67%
11/07
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:71%
11/14
@UT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:42%
11/21
@TulaneTULN
Win prob:26%
11/28
vsUABUAB
Win prob:75%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North TexasRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.5%
100.0%
7-1
3.9%
93.3%
6-2
14.6%
33.5%
5-3
26.9%
0.6%
4-4
28.7%
0%
3-5
17.9%
0%
2-6
6.3%
0%
1-7
1.2%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely North Texas CCG Opponents

if North Texas makes the CCG

TulaneTulane
32.7%
NavyNavy
20.8%
East CarolinaEast Carolina
19.0%
South FloridaSouth Florida
16.1%
MemphisMemphis
11.4%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North TexasThis Week's Impact

Game
North TexasCCG OddsAway
North TexasCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
9.0%
(-0.1%)		9.2%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North TexasLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
North Texas CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
92.1%
0.7%
IndianaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
UNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
UABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRice
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaUAB
95.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndiana
95.2%
<0.1%
IndianaRice
94.4%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsa
93.5%
<0.1%
IndianaUT San Antonio
93.3%
<0.1%
Texas StTulane
92.9%
<0.1%
IndianaTulane
92.6%
0.1%
IndianaNavy
90.2%
0.1%
FL AtlanticIndiana
83.3%
<0.1%
TulaneUNLV
77.8%
<0.1%
Texas StUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteUNLV
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteRice
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUNLV
33.3%
<0.1%
NavyUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
TulaneTulsa
22.2%
<0.1%
NavyTulsa
20.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
63.5%
3.8%
Houston ChristianIndianaRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StUNLV
100.0%
0.2%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteUABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteUNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianRiceUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianUNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTexas StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTulsaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndiana
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticRiceUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceUNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNavyUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
UABUNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StUT San Antonio
97.6%
0.1%
IndianaUNLVUT San Antonio
97.6%
0.1%
IndianaTexas StUAB
96.9%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsaUNLV
95.8%
0.1%
IndianaUABUNLV
95.8%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceUNLV
95.5%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTexas St
94.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaUNLV
93.8%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulane
93.2%
0.2%
CharlotteIndianaUNLV
92.9%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas St
92.4%
0.2%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavy
92.3%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StUNLV
92.3%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaUT San Antonio
92.3%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulsa
91.4%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyUNLV
90.9%
0.2%
IndianaTulaneUNLV
90.8%
0.3%
Texas StTulaneUNLV
90.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUNLVUT San Antonio
87.5%
<0.1%
NavyRiceUNLV
85.7%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaUAB
83.3%
<0.1%
NavyTulsaUNLV
75.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNavyUNLV
75.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneUT San Antonio
70.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUABUNLV
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaRice
60.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsaUAB
57.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaUAB
54.5%
<0.1%
TulaneTulsaUNLV
53.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaUT San Antonio
51.3%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyUNLVUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTulaneUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaRice
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticUNLVUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNavyTexas St
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsaUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaUT San Antonio
48.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTulsa
48.4%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyRice
47.6%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsaUT San Antonio
44.3%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTulane
41.9%
<0.1%
IndianaTulaneUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTulane
38.2%
<0.1%
IndianaUABUT San Antonio
37.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaNavy
36.8%
<0.1%
IndianaTulaneTulsa
36.2%
0.1%
IndianaNavyUAB
35.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndiana
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
TulsaUNLVUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTulsa
32.7%
0.1%
NavyTulaneUNLV
31.8%
<0.1%
TulaneUNLVUT San Antonio
31.3%
<0.1%
IndianaTulaneUT San Antonio
29.3%
0.2%
FL AtlanticIndianaNavy
28.2%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyUT San Antonio
27.9%
0.2%
CharlotteIndianaTulane
27.7%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceUT San Antonio
27.6%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsaUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTulane
21.1%
0.3%
FL AtlanticIndianaUAB
15.4%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulane
5.6%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
37.2%
9.6%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StUABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTexas StTulaneUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaUABUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianTulsaUNLVUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaRiceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNavyTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianRiceTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNavyTexas StUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndianaUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianNavyTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaRiceUNLV
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianTexas StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulsaUNLV
98.6%
0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas StUNLV
98.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas StUNLV
97.3%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulaneUNLV
96.7%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StUNLVUT San Antonio
96.1%
0.2%
IndianaRiceTexas StUNLV
94.4%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulsaUNLV
92.3%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaUNLVUT San Antonio
91.7%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas StUNLV
91.3%
0.3%
IndianaTexas StTulaneUNLV
90.3%
0.4%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas StUT San Antonio
88.9%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas StTulane
84.6%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaRiceTexas St
83.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaRiceUNLV
80.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas StUAB
75.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTexas StUNLVUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StUABUNLV
71.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaRiceTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
Texas StTulsaUNLVUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndianaUNLV
62.5%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceUABUNLV
61.5%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsaUABUNLV
60.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTexas StUNLVUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTexas StTulsa
60.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulsaUAB
60.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndianaTexas St
57.1%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTexas StUAB
55.6%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTulsaUNLV
53.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTulsaUNLV
52.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StUABUT San Antonio
52.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas StUT San Antonio
50.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaUNLVUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTexas StTulsaUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticTulsaUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceTexas StTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNavyTulaneUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndianaTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaRiceUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StUABUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTexas StUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulsaUNLV
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndianaTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaUABUNLVUT San Antonio
48.0%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceUNLVUT San Antonio
47.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas StTulsa
47.9%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulaneTulsa
47.4%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulsaUT San Antonio
45.5%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaRiceTulane
42.9%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTulsaUNLV
41.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaRiceTexas St
41.2%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas StUT San Antonio
40.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas StTulsa
40.0%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyRiceUNLV
40.0%
<0.1%
NavyRiceTexas StUNLV
40.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaNavyTexas St
39.0%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTexas StUT San Antonio
38.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaNavyUNLV
38.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaUNLVUT San Antonio
38.1%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulsaUAB
37.9%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulsaUT San Antonio
37.6%
0.1%
NavyTexas StUNLVUT San Antonio
37.5%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StTulaneUNLV
37.5%
<0.1%
IndianaTulsaUNLVUT San Antonio
37.4%
0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTexas StTulane
37.1%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas StUT San Antonio
36.8%
0.3%
FL AtlanticIndianaNavyTexas St
36.7%
0.1%
IndianaTulaneTulsaUNLV
36.6%
0.3%
FL AtlanticIndianaUABUNLV
36.4%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas StTulsa
35.4%
0.2%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas StTulane
34.4%
0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTulaneUNLV
34.0%
0.1%
IndianaNavyTulsaUNLV
34.0%
0.2%
IndianaTexas StTulaneTulsa
33.9%
0.2%
IndianaRiceTulaneUNLV
33.6%
0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTulaneUNLV
33.6%
0.1%
IndianaNavyRiceTexas St
33.3%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulaneUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyUT San Antonio
31.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaNavyUNLV
31.6%
0.1%
IndianaTulaneUNLVUT San Antonio
31.5%
0.4%
IndianaRiceTexas StTulane
31.1%
0.1%
CharlotteIndianaUABUNLV
30.8%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyUNLVUT San Antonio
30.5%
0.3%
FL AtlanticIndianaRiceUNLV
30.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneUNLVUT San Antonio
30.0%
<0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulaneUAB
29.4%
0.1%
IndianaTexas StTulaneUT San Antonio
28.9%
0.3%
IndianaNavyUABUNLV
28.6%
<0.1%
Texas StTulaneTulsaUNLV
27.3%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulaneUNLV
26.7%
<0.1%
IndianaTulaneUABUNLV
26.5%
0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas StUAB
26.1%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyTulane
25.7%
<0.1%
NavyTexas StTulsaUNLV
25.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTexas StUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNavyTexas StUNLV
25.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndianaUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTulaneUNLV
23.5%
0.6%
Houston ChristianIndianaTulaneUT San Antonio
22.2%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyTexas StTulane
21.4%
0.5%
FL AtlanticHouston ChristianIndianaNavy
20.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianIndianaNavyTulsa
17.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteHouston ChristianIndianaNavy
14.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaRiceTulsa
8.3%
<0.1%
IndianaNavyRiceUAB
5.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndianaUT San Antonio
5.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndianaNavy
4.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTulsaUT San Antonio
4.2%
<0.1%
NavyTulaneUNLVUT San Antonio
4.2%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTulsaUT San Antonio
3.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteFL AtlanticIndianaTulane
3.6%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaNavyTulsa
1.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaNavyUT San Antonio
1.7%
<0.1%
IndianaTulaneTulsaUT San Antonio
1.3%
0.2%
IndianaTulaneUABUT San Antonio
1.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIndianaTulaneUT San Antonio
1.2%
<0.1%
IndianaRiceTulaneUT San Antonio
0.9%
0.1%
FL AtlanticIndianaTulaneUT San Antonio
0.8%
0.1%
CharlotteIndianaNavyTulane
0.7%
0.1%
IndianaNavyTulsaUT San Antonio
0.7%
0.1%
IndianaNavyTulaneUT San Antonio
0.6%
0.5%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com