North TexasMean Green
1-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is North Texas's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
North Texas has a 34.4% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Texas's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L16-52 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W44-6 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:71% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 10/01 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/29 | Win prob:88% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.5% | 88.1% |
| 6-2 | 34.6% | 17.5% |
| 5-3 | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 34.4% (+0.0%) | 34.3% (-0.1%) | ||
| 34.1% (-0.3%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.4% (-0.0%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.5% (+0.1%) | 34.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 34.4% (+0.0%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.3% (-0.1%) | 34.4% (+0.1%) | ||
| 34.2% (-0.1%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.3% (-0.1%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.3% (-0.1%) | 34.7% (+0.3%) | ||
| 34.2% (-0.2%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 34.3% (-0.0%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 33.8% (-0.5%) | 34.4% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.3%Any 1 loss
89.7%
17.8%
100.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.5%
92.7%
0.2%
92.1%
0.3%
91.3%
2.6%
91.3%
0.3%
91.2%
0.6%
87.7%
3.3%
87.1%
3.4%
86.7%
4.9%Any 2 losses
37.1%
30.3%100.0%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.9%
0.1%91.7%
0.2%90.8%
1.1%90.7%
0.3%90.6%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%88.3%
0.4%88.2%
<0.1%87.6%
0.4%87.5%
1.4%86.8%
1.4%86.6%
2.0%85.7%
0.5%37.5%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.6%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%30.2%
0.2%29.2%
0.1%28.8%
0.2%27.2%
0.4%25.7%
0.2%24.9%
0.2%24.8%
0.2%23.8%
0.3%22.3%
0.2%22.1%
0.2%22.1%
0.4%21.8%
0.3%21.5%
0.4%20.0%
2.1%19.9%
2.0%19.9%
0.7%19.7%
0.3%19.4%
0.3%17.0%
2.9%16.5%
2.6%13.4%
3.7%13.3%
3.9%Any 3 losses
21.1%
12.5%93.9%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%89.3%
<0.1%87.5%
0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.1%
0.2%86.1%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.1%
<0.1%24.8%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.8%
0.2%22.6%
<0.1%22.5%
0.2%22.4%
<0.1%22.3%
<0.1%22.3%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.0%
0.1%20.6%
0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.3%
0.9%20.2%
0.1%20.1%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.2%19.4%
0.3%18.8%
0.9%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.0%
0.3%16.7%
1.2%16.5%
0.3%16.3%
1.1%13.3%
1.6%13.1%
0.4%12.8%
1.6%12.8%
0.4%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17