TexasLonghorns
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
52.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Texas's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Texas has a 52.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:98% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:98% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 24.1% | 97.3% |
| 7-2 | 31.5% | 62.7% |
| 6-3 | 23.1% | 8.0% |
| 5-4 | 10.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.8%Any 1 loss
97.9%
15.7%100.0%
3.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.3%99.1%
0.3%98.3%
1.2%98.2%
1.6%97.8%
1.6%97.0%
0.8%97.0%
2.5%96.7%
1.1%95.8%
2.5%Any 2 losses
77.6%
27.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.3%98.5%
1.2%98.0%
1.5%97.9%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
0.8%97.7%
0.9%97.7%
0.3%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
1.5%97.1%
2.4%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.9%
2.4%93.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%76.2%
0.2%75.7%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%73.4%
0.1%72.7%
0.5%71.8%
0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.8%
0.2%69.8%
0.5%69.3%
0.4%68.6%
0.3%68.0%
0.1%67.5%
0.3%67.5%
<0.1%66.8%
0.8%65.8%
0.6%65.4%
0.4%65.1%
0.1%64.5%
0.2%64.0%
0.2%63.3%
0.8%63.1%
1.0%62.9%
0.5%61.9%
0.6%60.9%
0.7%60.9%
0.2%60.5%
0.4%59.6%
1.1%55.2%
1.1%54.7%
1.1%54.0%
0.7%53.6%
1.6%Any 3 losses
40.7%
27.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%86.6%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%73.8%
0.2%73.6%
0.4%73.0%
0.4%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
0.2%70.4%
<0.1%70.3%
0.5%70.1%
0.3%69.9%
0.3%69.8%
<0.1%68.7%
0.2%68.0%
0.5%67.7%
<0.1%67.6%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
0.2%65.9%
0.7%65.7%
0.1%65.7%
0.2%64.5%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
1.0%63.5%
0.6%63.3%
0.5%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.3%61.6%
1.0%61.5%
<0.1%61.4%
0.7%61.2%
0.7%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
0.4%58.3%
<0.1%58.0%
1.0%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
1.0%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.6%55.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.7%
1.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.1%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
0.2%11.0%
0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.8%
0.3%9.8%
0.2%9.6%
0.5%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.7%7.8%
0.2%7.8%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
0.3%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.7%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.4%
0.3%6.3%
0.4%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.2%
0.4%4.8%
0.3%4.2%
0.3%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.4%3.4%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
11.2%
11.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.2%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.0%
0.2%8.8%
0.3%8.2%
0.1%8.1%
0.2%8.1%
0.7%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
0.3%7.7%
0.3%7.7%
0.5%7.6%
0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.5%
0.3%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
0.3%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%4.4%
0.7%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.4%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26