Texas

TexasLonghorns

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

66.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Texas's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Texas has a 66.5% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

TexasSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsTexas StTXST
W59-7
29/12
vsOhio StOSU
W24-23
39/19
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:99%
49/26
@TennesseeTENN
Win prob:79%
610/10
vsOklahomaOU(N)
Win prob:85%
710/17
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:92%
810/24
vsMississippiMISS
Win prob:92%
910/31
vsMississippi StMSST
Win prob:96%
1011/07
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:90%
1111/14
@LSULSU
Win prob:66%
1211/21
vsArkansasARK
Win prob:99%
1311/27
@Texas A&MTA&M
Win prob:65%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
20.8%
100.0%
8-1
38.2%
91.6%
7-2
27.9%
37.9%
6-3
10.5%
1.7%
5-4
2.3%
0%
4-5
0.3%
0%
3-6
0.0%
0%
2-7
0%
0%
1-8
0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Texas CCG Opponents

if Texas makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
45.7%
ALAAlabama
20.6%
LSULSU
12.6%
TA&MTexas A&M
10.1%
TENNTennessee
3.4%
OUOklahoma
2.4%
FLAFlorida
2.0%
MISSMississippi
1.3%
SCSouth Carolina
1.0%
AUBAuburn
0.6%
MIZMissouri
0.2%
MSSTMississippi St
0.2%
VANVanderbilt
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasThis Week's Impact

Game
TexasCCG OddsAway Wins
TexasCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK
66.4%
(-0.1%)		73.4%
(+6.8%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
66.6%
(+0.1%)		66.5%
(-0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
66.4%
(-0.1%)		66.5%
(+0.0%)
KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M
68.5%
(+1.9%)		66.5%
(-0.1%)
Mississippi StMSST@South CarolinaSC
67.7%
(+1.2%)		65.9%
(-0.6%)
FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB
67.3%
(+0.8%)		65.8%
(-0.8%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
66.4%
(-0.1%)		66.5%
(+0.0%)
LSULSU@MississippiMISS
65.4%
(-1.1%)		68.6%
(+2.1%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
66.7%
(+0.2%)		66.5%
(-0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
65.7%
(-0.8%)		66.5%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
66.7%
(+0.2%)		66.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
20.6%
Any 1 loss
91.6%
38.0%
UT San Antonio
100.0%
0.2%
Mississippi St
95.9%
0.9%
Tennessee
94.1%
5.4%
Florida
93.1%
1.9%
Missouri
92.9%
2.3%
Mississippi
92.2%
1.7%
Oklahoma
92.1%
3.7%
Arkansas
91.7%
0.2%
Texas A&M
91.1%
11.2%
LSU
89.5%
10.4%
Any 2 losses
38.7%
28.1%
Mississippi StUT San Antonio
97.9%
<0.1%
FloridaUT San Antonio
94.0%
<0.1%
MissouriUT San Antonio
93.5%
<0.1%
TennesseeUT San Antonio
93.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasUT San Antonio
92.3%
<0.1%
OklahomaUT San Antonio
91.6%
<0.1%
LSUUT San Antonio
90.6%
0.1%
MississippiUT San Antonio
90.3%
<0.1%
Texas A&MUT San Antonio
89.4%
0.1%
Mississippi StMissouri
65.1%
0.1%
ArkansasMississippi St
63.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouri
62.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi
59.7%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi St
59.6%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi St
59.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasFlorida
59.2%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouri
57.7%
0.2%
MissouriOklahoma
57.3%
0.4%
FloridaMissouri
55.9%
0.2%
Mississippi StOklahoma
55.0%
0.2%
Mississippi StTennessee
54.9%
0.2%
ArkansasOklahoma
54.6%
<0.1%
MissouriTennessee
52.1%
0.6%
MississippiOklahoma
52.0%
0.3%
FloridaMississippi
51.0%
0.1%
MississippiTennessee
49.7%
0.4%
FloridaOklahoma
49.6%
0.3%
FloridaTennessee
48.2%
0.5%
OklahomaTennessee
47.4%
1.0%
ArkansasTennessee
47.2%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexas A&M
44.8%
0.5%
LSUMississippi St
42.3%
0.5%
MissouriTexas A&M
42.1%
1.3%
LSUMissouri
41.9%
1.2%
FloridaTexas A&M
40.1%
1.0%
MississippiTexas A&M
39.9%
0.9%
ArkansasLSU
38.3%
0.1%
FloridaLSU
38.2%
1.0%
ArkansasTexas A&M
37.3%
0.1%
LSUOklahoma
37.2%
1.9%
LSUMississippi
37.1%
0.9%
OklahomaTexas A&M
35.1%
2.0%
TennesseeTexas A&M
34.5%
3.0%
LSUTennessee
33.7%
2.7%
LSUTexas A&M
27.5%
5.7%
Any 3 losses
2.5%
10.7%
ArkansasOklahomaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouriUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaUT San Antonio
62.8%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaUT San Antonio
58.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaTennesseeUT San Antonio
57.6%
<0.1%
MissouriTennesseeUT San Antonio
56.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriUT San Antonio
55.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiUT San Antonio
53.8%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriUT San Antonio
53.3%
<0.1%
FloridaTennesseeUT San Antonio
51.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas A&MUT San Antonio
46.4%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriUT San Antonio
46.2%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexas A&MUT San Antonio
44.2%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahomaUT San Antonio
42.9%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriUT San Antonio
41.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StUT San Antonio
41.7%
<0.1%
LSUMississippi StUT San Antonio
40.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexas A&MUT San Antonio
40.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTennesseeUT San Antonio
37.0%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaUT San Antonio
36.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUUT San Antonio
35.9%
<0.1%
MississippiTennesseeUT San Antonio
35.7%
<0.1%
MissouriTexas A&MUT San Antonio
35.6%
<0.1%
MississippiTexas A&MUT San Antonio
34.8%
<0.1%
LSUMississippiUT San Antonio
34.4%
<0.1%
TennesseeTexas A&MUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaUT San Antonio
31.6%
<0.1%
LSUTennesseeUT San Antonio
29.7%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas A&MUT San Antonio
28.9%
<0.1%
LSUTexas A&MUT San Antonio
27.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasTennesseeUT San Antonio
20.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiMissouri
15.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StMissouri
14.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiOklahoma
12.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaMissouri
10.5%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiMissouri
8.2%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUMississippi St
8.2%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaTennessee
7.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaLSU
6.7%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StMissouri
6.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouriTexas A&M
6.1%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StOklahoma
6.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUMissouri
5.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaOklahoma
5.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouriTennessee
5.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTennessee
4.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTennessee
4.5%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiMississippi St
4.4%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriTexas A&M
4.2%
0.1%
MississippiMissouriTennessee
4.2%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTennessee
4.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriTennessee
4.1%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriTennessee
4.0%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriOklahoma
3.9%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriOklahoma
3.8%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaTennessee
3.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTexas A&M
3.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaTexas A&M
3.3%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaTennessee
3.2%
0.1%
FloridaMississippi StOklahoma
3.1%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahomaTennessee
3.1%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriTexas A&M
3.1%
<0.1%
LSUMississippiMissouri
3.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriOklahoma
2.9%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUMississippi
2.9%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUMissouri
2.8%
0.1%
LSUMissouriOklahoma
2.8%
0.2%
FloridaMississippiTennessee
2.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaTexas A&M
2.7%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahomaTexas A&M
2.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasTennesseeTexas A&M
2.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUMississippi St
2.5%
<0.1%
LSUMississippiMississippi St
2.4%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiTexas A&M
2.4%
<0.1%
LSUMississippi StMissouri
2.3%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiOklahoma
2.2%
<0.1%
LSUMississippi StOklahoma
2.2%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StTexas A&M
2.1%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaTexas A&M
2.1%
0.2%
LSUMississippi StTennessee
2.1%
0.1%
FloridaMississippi StTennessee
2.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTexas A&M
2.0%
<0.1%
MissouriTennesseeTexas A&M
2.0%
0.3%
FloridaMissouriTexas A&M
1.9%
0.1%
LSUMissouriTennessee
1.9%
0.3%
FloridaTennesseeTexas A&M
1.9%
0.3%
LSUMississippiOklahoma
1.9%
0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTexas A&M
1.8%
0.2%
MississippiMississippi StTexas A&M
1.8%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTennessee
1.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaTennessee
1.7%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTennesseeTexas A&M
1.7%
0.1%
LSUMississippiTennessee
1.6%
0.2%
FloridaLSUOklahoma
1.6%
0.2%
MississippiTennesseeTexas A&M
1.5%
0.3%
ArkansasLSUTennessee
1.5%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StMissouri
1.5%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUTennessee
1.5%
0.3%
MississippiOklahomaTexas A&M
1.5%
0.2%
ArkansasLSUOklahoma
1.5%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaTennessee
1.4%
0.5%
FloridaLSUTexas A&M
1.4%
0.5%
LSUMissouriTexas A&M
1.4%
0.6%
OklahomaTennesseeTexas A&M
1.4%
0.5%
LSUMississippiTexas A&M
1.4%
0.5%
LSUMississippi StTexas A&M
1.3%
0.3%
ArkansasLSUTexas A&M
1.2%
<0.1%
LSUTennesseeTexas A&M
1.0%
1.5%
LSUOklahomaTexas A&M
0.9%
1.0%
Any 4 losses
1.9%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriTexas A&MUT San Antonio
16.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUTexas A&MUT San Antonio
14.3%
<0.1%
FloridaLSUMissouriUT San Antonio
10.0%
<0.1%
LSUMississippi StTennesseeUT San Antonio
8.3%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTexas A&MUT San Antonio
7.7%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriOklahomaUT San Antonio
5.9%
<0.1%
MissouriTennesseeTexas A&MUT San Antonio
5.3%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriTennesseeUT San Antonio
4.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTennesseeTexas A&MUT San Antonio
3.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaTennesseeTexas A&MUT San Antonio
3.6%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaTexas A&MUT San Antonio
2.2%
<0.1%
LSUMississippiTexas A&MUT San Antonio
1.8%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriTexas A&MUT San Antonio
1.3%
<0.1%
LSUTennesseeTexas A&MUT San Antonio
0.7%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com