Texas

TexasLonghorns

6-2 T5th (3-2) in SEC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

14.2%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Texas's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Texas has a 14.2% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Texas need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Texas's SEC Championship Game odds at 64.2%; even one more loss drops that to 1.8%.

What is the biggest game this week for Texas's SEC Championship Game odds?

Texas's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Missouri would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 19.2%, while a loss would drop them to 0.8%.

TexasSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsTexas StTXST
W59-7
29/12
vsOhio StOSU
W24-23
39/19
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
W30-6
49/26
@TennesseeTENN
W20-17
610/10
vsOklahomaOU(N)
L24-27
710/17
vsFloridaFLA
L24-27
810/24
vsMississippiMISS
W34-27
910/31
vsMississippi StMSST
W31-3
1011/07
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:73%
1111/14
@LSULSU
Win prob:39%
1211/21
vsArkansasARK
Win prob:99%
1311/27
@Texas A&MTA&M
Win prob:74%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-2
20.8%
64.2%
6-3
47.7%
1.8%
5-4
26.8%
0%
4-5
4.6%
0%
3-6
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Texas CCG Opponents

if Texas makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
69.0%
MISSMississippi
15.0%
ALAAlabama
5.3%
UKKentucky
5.2%
LSULSU
1.8%
TENNTennessee
1.8%
FLAFlorida
1.1%
MIZMissouri
0.5%
OUOklahoma
0.1%
SCSouth Carolina
0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasThis Week's Impact

Game
TexasCCG OddsAway Wins
TexasCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Nov 7
TexasTEX@MissouriMIZ
19.2%
(+5.0%)		0.8%
(-13.5%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB
16.2%
(+2.0%)		13.8%
(-0.4%)
Texas A&MTA&M@South CarolinaSC
15.0%
(+0.9%)		13.6%
(-0.6%)
AlabamaALA@LSULSU
12.2%
(-2.0%)		15.6%
(+1.4%)
VanderbiltVAN@Mississippi StMSST
13.1%
(-1.1%)		14.5%
(+0.3%)
KentuckyUK@TennesseeTENN
7.0%
(-7.2%)		17.3%
(+3.1%)
GeorgiaUGA@MississippiMISS
13.9%
(-0.3%)		14.5%
(+0.4%)
OklahomaOU@FloridaFLA
14.4%
(+0.2%)		14.1%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Texas

Mississippi StMississippi StateMississippiOle MissTennesseeTennesseeFloridaFloridaArkansasArkansasLSULSUTexasTexasTexas A&MTexas A&M

CCG: 30.8% • Scenario: 0.5%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Texas

TennesseeTennesseeTexasTexas

CCG: 23.4% • Scenario: 51.0%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
64.2%
20.8%
Any 1 loss
1.8%
47.7%
Arkansas
6.6%
0.3%
Texas A&M
3.5%
7.4%
Missouri
2.6%
7.7%
LSU
1.2%
32.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TexasCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com