Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Georgia TechGT | 1-0 | 2-0 | 12.9% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 1-0 | 1-0 | 6.3% | |
| T3 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 40.4% | |
| T3 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 27.3% | |
| T3 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 0-1 | 22.8% | |
| T3 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 20.0% | |
| T3 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 1-0 | 19.8% | |
| T3 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 0-1 | 16.4% | |
| T3 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| T3 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| T3 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4.3% | |
| T3 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 1-0 | 3.0% | |
| T3 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1.5% | |
| T3 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1.5% | |
| T3 |  SyracuseSYR | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.6% | |
| T3 |  VirginiaUVA | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.1% | |
| T3 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 0-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 40.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.7% (-0.7%) | 40.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.0%) | 40.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.1%) | 40.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.2%) | 40.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-40.4%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.2%) | 40.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.1%) | 40.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 41.2% (+0.9%) | 40.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.3% (-0.1%) | 40.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.3% (+0.9%) | 40.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.4% (-1.0%) | 42.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.2%) | 40.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU | 99.9% | 91.0% | 30.1% | 0.4% | 40.4% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | 96.0% | 43.3% | 1.0% | 27.3% |
| ClemsonCLEM | 99.9% | 91.8% | 30.8% | 0.3% | 22.8% |
| NC StateNCSU | 99.9% | 90.3% | 31.5% | 0.4% | 20.0% |
| MiamiMIA | 100% | 93.3% | 40.3% | 1.1% | 19.8% |
| Virginia TechVT | 100% | 90.5% | 29.8% | 0.2% | 16.4% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 97.5% | 59.3% | 2.9% | 13.5% |
| Georgia TechGT | 100% | 96.4% | 53.8% | 2.2% | 12.9% |
| North CarolinaUNC | 99.8% | 87.8% | 29.3% | 0.3% | 9.5% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 100% | 94.1% | 37.8% | 0.6% | 6.3% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 95.2% | 42.0% | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| CaliforniaCAL | 100% | 90.2% | 29.0% | 0.4% | 3.0% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | 100% | 94.0% | 32.5% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | 64.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| SyracuseSYR | 100% | 92.6% | 33.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| VirginiaUVA | 100% | 100% | 53.6% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 100% | 54.8% | 3.0% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 7.7% | 24.8% | 33.2% | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | 2.6% | 12.9% | 26.9% | 29.8% | 19.0% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.2 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | 2.7% | 13.3% | 26.6% | 29.3% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | 2.0% | 11.0% | 25.3% | 30.1% | 20.9% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 1.5% | 9.0% | 22.6% | 30.3% | 23.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 1.7% | 9.5% | 22.2% | 29.1% | 22.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.9% | 15.3% | 26.7% | 27.7% | 17.0% | 6.5% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| Georgia TechGT(1-0) | 0.5% | 4.3% | 14.3% | 26.7% | 29.0% | 18.1% | 6.3% | 0.9% | - | 4.4 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.2% | 13.7% | 24.9% | 27.4% | 19.1% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.3 |
| Boston CollegeBC(1-0) | 0.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | 24.7% | 31.6% | 22.1% | 7.7% | 1.1% | - | 4.1 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 18.4% | 29.0% | 27.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.7 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.2% | 18.1% | 28.9% | 27.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.7 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 11.3% | 24.4% | 30.3% | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.2 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-2) | - | - | 1.6% | 10.4% | 25.8% | 32.5% | 21.7% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 3.1 |
| SyracuseSYR(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 16.6% | 28.8% | 28.9% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 2.7 |
| VirginiaUVA(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 15.8% | 30.6% | 32.8% | 14.8% | 1.7 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 14.7% | 30.8% | 33.7% | 15.6% | 1.6 |
Data from 2024-09-02