Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:45% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:30% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:24% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:36% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:7% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 92.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.3% | 46.9% |
| 6-3 | 2.2% | 3.8% |
| 5-4 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
63.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
34.3%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
13.3%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02