Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W29-24 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W59-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:51% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.7% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 24.8% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 33.2% | 30.1% |
| 5-3 | 22.8% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 9.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.7% (-0.7%) | 40.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.0%) | 40.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.1%) | 40.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.2%) | 40.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-40.4%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.2%) | 40.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.1%) | 40.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 41.2% (+0.9%) | 40.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.3% (-0.1%) | 40.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.3% (+0.9%) | 40.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.4%) | 40.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.4% (-1.0%) | 42.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.2%) | 40.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
4.8%Any 1 loss
92.5%
18.0%
100.0%
0.7%
99.8%
1.9%
94.1%
1.1%
93.8%
1.1%
93.8%
0.8%
93.7%
2.2%
92.8%
1.0%
92.6%
0.7%
90.9%
4.0%
88.1%
4.6%Any 2 losses
48.3%
29.5%99.7%
0.3%95.9%
0.1%95.2%
0.3%94.9%
0.1%94.5%
0.2%93.9%
0.1%93.6%
0.9%93.5%
0.3%93.3%
0.4%93.0%
0.5%92.5%
0.2%91.8%
0.3%91.2%
0.4%90.7%
1.6%90.2%
0.6%87.6%
1.8%87.3%
0.6%44.6%
0.2%44.3%
0.4%43.9%
0.1%42.7%
0.2%42.0%
0.2%40.4%
0.6%40.2%
0.2%39.5%
0.3%39.3%
0.2%39.1%
0.5%38.8%
0.3%38.1%
0.2%37.5%
0.2%37.1%
0.1%36.4%
0.9%34.0%
0.5%33.9%
0.7%33.1%
0.7%32.9%
0.9%30.1%
2.2%29.7%
0.8%29.4%
0.7%28.3%
1.1%28.2%
1.9%27.6%
0.9%26.4%
0.7%26.3%
1.1%20.8%
4.0%Any 3 losses
27.1%
15.5%96.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.9%
0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%87.9%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.9%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
0.1%43.2%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.2%41.8%
<0.1%41.4%
0.1%40.4%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.5%
0.3%36.7%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.4%
0.4%34.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.1%
0.1%33.0%
0.2%32.6%
0.3%32.5%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.4%
0.2%30.4%
0.3%29.9%
0.1%29.9%
0.9%29.9%
0.8%29.0%
0.4%28.9%
<0.1%28.3%
0.4%28.0%
0.4%27.2%
0.3%27.1%
0.2%26.9%
0.1%26.4%
0.3%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
0.1%25.2%
0.4%24.7%
0.3%21.1%
1.6%21.1%
<0.1%19.5%
0.6%3.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
11.5%
3.5%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.6%
0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.9%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.8%
0.3%17.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.8%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02