Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:55% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:49% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:19% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.2% | 95.2% |
| 6-2 | 6.7% | 42.0% |
| 5-3 | 18.4% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.6% (+0.3%) | 4.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.0%) | 4.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.1%) | 4.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.0%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.2%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-4.3%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.1%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.1%) | 4.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.0%) | 4.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (+0.3%) | 4.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.0%) | 4.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.2%) | 4.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.3%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.3%) | 4.9% (+0.6%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.0%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.4%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
56.8%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.8%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.2%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%38.5%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%31.5%
0.1%31.4%
0.3%Any 3 losses
28.6%
5.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.9%
0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.2%39.3%
0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%32.4%
0.2%31.5%
0.3%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
0.2%29.8%
0.1%29.7%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.5%Any 4 losses
14.7%
5.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%50.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.6%
0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.1%38.8%
<0.1%38.3%
0.2%37.9%
<0.1%37.7%
0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02