MichiganWolverines

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

56.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsFresno StateFRES	W30-10
2	9/07	vsTexasTEX	Win prob:63%
3	9/14	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:97%
4	9/21	vsUSCUSC	Win prob:89%
5	9/28	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:96%
6	10/05	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:73%
8	10/19	@IllinoisILL	Win prob:92%
9	10/26	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:97%
10	11/02	vsOregonORE	Win prob:68%
11	11/09	@IndianaIU	Win prob:95%
13	11/23	vsNorthwesternNU	Win prob:95%
14	11/30	@Ohio StateOSU	Win prob:50%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	17.1%	100.0%
8-1	38.0%	85.9%
7-2	30.7%	21.9%
6-3	11.6%	0.4%
5-4	2.3%	0%
4-5	0.3%	0%
3-6	0.0%	0%
2-7	0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

31.7%

30.2%

28.5%

5.1%

4.6%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ColoradoCOLO@NebraskaNEB	56.0% (-0.5%)	56.6% (+0.1%)
TexasTEX@MichiganMICH	56.5% (+0.0%)	56.5% (-0.0%)
Iowa StateISU@IowaIOWA	56.7% (+0.2%)	56.3% (-0.2%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@WashingtonWASH	56.1% (-0.4%)	56.5% (+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@WisconsinWIS	56.3% (-0.2%)	56.5% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@USCUSC	56.4% (-0.1%)	56.5% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@MarylandMD	59.2% (+2.7%)	56.1% (-0.3%)
KansasKU@IllinoisILL	56.5% (+0.0%)	56.4% (-0.1%)
DukeDUKE@NorthwesternNU	56.5% (+0.0%)	56.5% (+0.0%)
AkronAKR@RutgersRUTG	56.8% (+0.3%)	56.5% (-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Penn StatePSU	56.4% (-0.1%)	56.5% (+0.0%)
Western IllinoisWIU@IndianaIU	56.6% (+0.1%)	56.5% (-0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@Ohio StateOSU	57.1% (+0.6%)	56.5% (-0.0%)
Rhode IslandURI@MinnesotaMINN	56.7% (+0.2%)	56.5% (-0.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@OregonORE	56.0% (-0.5%)	56.6% (+0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

10.4%

Any 1 loss

89.0%

29.9%

100.0%

6.2%

100.0%

0.3%

96.3%

0.7%

95.5%

0.5%

95.4%

0.9%

94.4%

1.3%

94.0%

0.4%

93.2%

0.3%

91.9%

3.9%

86.7%

5.0%

80.0%

10.6%

Any 2 losses

49.4%

33.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.9%

0.3%

96.2%

0.2%

95.8%

0.3%

95.7%

0.3%

94.8%

0.5%

93.8%

0.1%

93.2%

0.8%

92.1%

2.2%

90.0%

<0.1%

89.7%

<0.1%

86.0%

2.8%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.7%

0.1%

80.8%

0.3%

79.8%

6.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.0%

<0.1%

58.6%

<0.1%

57.9%

0.1%

57.5%

<0.1%

54.8%

<0.1%

50.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

49.1%

<0.1%

48.0%

0.2%

47.9%

0.1%

45.4%

0.2%

44.4%

<0.1%

43.0%

0.3%

42.6%

<0.1%

42.3%

<0.1%

42.3%

<0.1%

39.1%

0.2%

36.3%

0.4%

33.7%

0.3%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.4%

0.5%

31.3%

0.5%

30.1%

0.3%

30.1%

0.5%

30.0%

0.3%

29.8%

0.1%

29.2%

0.2%

29.0%

0.6%

26.7%

0.6%

26.1%

0.9%

20.5%

1.3%

19.1%

1.8%

17.4%

3.9%

9.3%

5.0%

Any 3 losses

20.8%

13.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.5%

<0.1%

94.0%

<0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

87.1%

<0.1%

82.9%

0.2%

72.7%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

67.9%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

51.2%

<0.1%

50.0%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

44.7%

0.1%

44.0%

<0.1%

43.5%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

42.3%

<0.1%

40.5%

<0.1%

40.1%

0.2%

40.0%

<0.1%

39.7%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

36.0%

<0.1%

35.3%

0.3%

35.0%

0.2%

33.6%

0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.3%

<0.1%

31.1%

0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

30.6%

0.2%

30.6%

0.1%

30.3%

0.3%

29.6%

0.5%

27.8%

<0.1%

27.3%

0.4%

26.3%

<0.1%

25.4%

0.4%

24.7%

0.3%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.7%

0.8%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.9%

<0.1%

21.2%

1.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

18.7%

2.3%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.4%

0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.0%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.3%

2.9%

10.0%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.2%

1.0%

0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.9%

0.2%

0.7%

0.4%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

0.2%

Any 4 losses

4.0%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.1%

0.2%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

0.7%

0.3%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com