Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:75% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:76% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.6% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 17.6% | 59.5% |
| 6-2 | 31.9% | 4.6% |
| 5-3 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% (+0.1%) | 15.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.0%) | 15.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.6% (+0.1%) | 15.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.1% (-0.4%) | 15.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.7% (+0.2%) | 15.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.1%) | 15.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.1%) | 15.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.1%) | 15.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.0%) | 15.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.1% (-0.4%) | 15.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.8% (+0.2%) | 15.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.2% (-0.3%) | 15.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.3% (+0.8%) | 15.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 16.1% (+0.6%) | 15.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.8% (+0.3%) | 15.4% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
63.3%
12.3%
100.0%
0.3%
99.8%
0.5%
99.5%
0.4%
82.8%
0.8%
76.3%
0.7%
69.5%
0.4%
69.3%
0.5%
68.8%
0.1%
62.3%
1.5%
59.5%
2.1%
50.1%
4.9%Any 2 losses
17.0%
25.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%85.2%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%78.4%
0.1%78.2%
0.1%77.0%
0.1%76.8%
0.1%69.1%
0.3%67.9%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.3%65.8%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%61.1%
0.2%60.3%
0.2%56.5%
0.4%56.4%
0.4%53.3%
<0.1%52.3%
1.1%50.1%
0.6%46.8%
0.8%22.9%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%21.1%
0.2%20.7%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.6%
0.1%14.6%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.6%
0.2%10.6%
0.5%9.7%
0.3%9.4%
0.4%9.3%
0.5%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
0.7%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
0.4%5.4%
0.5%5.3%
1.6%5.3%
1.7%4.1%
1.2%3.9%
0.3%3.5%
1.3%3.4%
0.6%3.0%
0.9%2.8%
3.3%0.9%
4.7%Any 3 losses
9.5%
10.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%54.5%
0.2%52.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
0.1%45.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
0.3%4.4%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.6%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
0.3%2.7%
0.7%2.6%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%0.6%
0.8%0.6%
1.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02