Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:37% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:99% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.6% | 66.7% |
| 6-2 | 33.1% | 5.4% |
| 5-3 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% (-1.1%) | 40.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.9% (+0.3%) | 40.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 40.7% (+0.1%) | 40.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 40.9% (+0.3%) | 40.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.3% (-0.4%) | 40.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.8% (+0.1%) | 40.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.8% (+0.1%) | 40.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.7% (+0.0%) | 40.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.8% (+0.2%) | 40.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.2% (+1.5%) | 40.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.4%) | 40.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.7% (+0.0%) | 40.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.9% (-0.7%) | 41.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 40.9% (+0.3%) | 40.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.8% (+0.1%) | 40.6% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.5%Any 1 loss
80.1%
20.5%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
7.7%
90.2%
0.2%
88.3%
0.6%
85.4%
0.2%
84.6%
0.3%
83.3%
0.4%
78.4%
1.3%
72.9%
2.6%
57.5%
6.8%Any 2 losses
48.4%
34.4%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.8%
1.0%90.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
0.7%85.5%
0.4%85.4%
0.3%84.8%
0.3%77.8%
2.3%77.8%
<0.1%75.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
4.5%74.2%
0.1%65.4%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%57.0%
0.8%56.6%
11.7%33.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.3%8.9%
0.5%8.6%
0.1%8.6%
0.3%8.2%
0.9%8.0%
0.4%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
0.3%6.5%
0.1%5.0%
2.1%3.0%
0.8%1.3%
3.9%Any 3 losses
12.6%
22.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%88.0%
0.1%83.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.0%
0.3%75.8%
0.5%70.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
1.4%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.4%
0.3%15.4%
<0.1%14.0%
0.5%13.6%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.2%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
0.7%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.5%
0.6%8.3%
1.6%7.8%
0.4%7.1%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
1.0%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.4%
1.4%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
3.4%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.3%
7.0%0.9%
0.4%Any 4 losses
5.9%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02