Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:89% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 20.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 41.0% | 90.2% |
| 6-2 | 28.8% | 18.1% |
| 5-3 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 63.4% (+1.0%) | 62.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.0% (-0.5%) | 62.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 62.4% (-0.1%) | 62.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 62.4% (-0.1%) | 62.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.7%) | 62.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.5% (+0.1%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.5% (+0.0%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.5% (+0.0%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.7% (+0.3%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.9% (+0.4%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 61.7% (-0.8%) | 62.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.7% (+0.3%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 61.3% (-1.1%) | 63.0% (+0.5%) | |
| 62.8% (+0.3%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 63.0% (+0.5%) | 62.2% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
17.4%Any 1 loss
90.9%
38.0%100.0%
1.9%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.2%99.1%
2.1%97.5%
2.3%96.6%
2.0%95.7%
0.7%94.0%
0.4%91.3%
0.7%89.2%
15.9%86.7%
11.2%Any 2 losses
31.7%
30.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.2%97.5%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.9%
0.2%95.3%
0.2%93.0%
<0.1%91.5%
0.6%90.3%
0.1%89.8%
1.7%89.7%
0.2%87.3%
0.4%86.3%
1.3%55.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%46.7%
0.3%46.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%38.4%
<0.1%36.9%
0.2%36.6%
<0.1%36.3%
0.3%36.0%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%27.7%
1.9%27.6%
0.3%27.4%
1.4%24.0%
0.5%23.8%
0.4%23.8%
1.5%23.2%
0.6%23.1%
2.1%19.5%
1.3%19.3%
0.3%19.3%
0.6%18.9%
1.9%9.0%
10.5%Any 3 losses
21.4%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.6%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.5%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%21.3%
0.2%20.6%
0.3%20.5%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
1.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
0.4%5.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
22.4%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02