Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 66.4% | |
| T1 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 2-0 | 48.6% | |
| T1 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 2-0 | 19.4% | |
| T1 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 16.1% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 13.7% | |
| T1 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| T1 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 2-0 | 4.7% | |
| T1 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3.2% | |
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.5% | |
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.6% | |
| T1 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.7% | |
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 66.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% (-0.6%) | 67.0% (+0.6%) | |
| 66.3% (-0.1%) | 66.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 66.2% (-0.2%) | 66.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 66.3% (-0.0%) | 66.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 66.3% (-0.1%) | 66.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 66.6% (+0.2%) | 66.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 66.4% (+0.1%) | 66.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 66.4% (-0.0%) | 66.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 66.3% (-0.1%) | 67.1% (+0.8%) | |
| 66.5% (+0.1%) | 66.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 66.4% (+0.0%) | 66.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 66.4% (+0.0%) | 66.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 66.4% (-0.0%) | 66.4% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU | 100% | 93.4% | 45.7% | 2.8% | - | 66.4% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 94.1% | 47.6% | 3.0% | - | 48.6% |
| UCFUCF | 99.9% | 94.1% | 43.5% | 2.5% | - | 19.4% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 94.8% | 46.0% | 2.6% | - | 16.1% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 96.1% | 48.6% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 13.7% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 95.1% | 49.6% | 4.3% | - | 12.6% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 89.9% | 36.6% | 1.7% | - | 9.8% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 92.5% | 39.1% | 2.0% | - | 4.7% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 98.9% | 61.2% | 8.2% | - | 3.2% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 90.0% | 34.9% | 1.5% | - | 2.5% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 98.8% | 59.6% | 8.0% | <0.1% | 1.6% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 90.6% | 32.2% | 1.3% | - | 0.7% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 94.7% | 61.8% | 7.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 100% | 63.2% | 6.1% | - | 0.3% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | 100% | 41.2% | 2.5% | - | 0.2% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 100% | 66.7% | 9.9% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU(0-0) | 19.4% | 36.1% | 28.4% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | 8.4% | 25.6% | 32.4% | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.6% | 21.0% | 28.8% | 23.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 1.1% | 6.5% | 17.6% | 27.1% | 25.4% | 15.2% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.6 |
| Iowa StateISU(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.8% | 15.3% | 26.0% | 27.2% | 17.4% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.1% | 14.3% | 25.4% | 27.7% | 18.2% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.3% | 13.9% | 24.5% | 27.3% | 18.5% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 18.1% | 27.1% | 25.1% | 14.6% | 5.3% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 14.0% | 25.6% | 28.1% | 18.4% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 10.3% | 21.2% | 27.2% | 22.8% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 16.1% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 3.6 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 17.9% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 3.4 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 9.0% | 20.8% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 2.9 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 8.0% | 19.3% | 29.0% | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 2.8 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 2.7 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 7.1% | 19.7% | 32.4% | 28.9% | 10.1% | 1.9 |
Data from 2024-09-08