Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:50% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:91% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:85% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.4% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 8.6% | 94.1% |
| 7-2 | 21.0% | 43.5% |
| 6-3 | 28.8% | 2.5% |
| 5-4 | 23.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.0% (+9.7%) | 9.7% (-9.6%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.0%) | 19.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.5% (+0.2%) | 19.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.0%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.2%) | 20.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 19.5% (+0.2%) | 19.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.1%) | 19.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.3%) | 19.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.1%) | 19.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.0%) | 19.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.0%) | 19.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
94.2%
6.0%
99.8%
0.5%
98.7%
0.1%
96.2%
0.2%
95.7%
0.6%
95.4%
0.9%
95.1%
1.1%
94.4%
0.7%
94.3%
0.6%
94.3%
<0.1%
88.6%
1.2%Any 2 losses
53.6%
16.5%99.0%
0.1%97.3%
0.5%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
0.6%95.3%
0.4%95.0%
0.1%94.9%
0.4%94.6%
0.3%90.8%
0.7%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%64.6%
0.1%64.0%
0.2%61.3%
<0.1%61.3%
0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%57.6%
0.2%56.1%
<0.1%54.8%
0.2%54.4%
<0.1%52.1%
0.6%52.0%
0.1%50.3%
0.2%50.0%
0.1%49.5%
0.2%49.4%
0.4%49.1%
0.4%49.1%
0.6%49.0%
0.6%48.0%
0.2%47.1%
0.1%47.0%
0.4%46.4%
1.1%44.8%
0.6%44.1%
0.6%42.3%
0.7%36.6%
0.8%36.3%
0.8%35.6%
0.1%35.1%
0.3%35.0%
1.1%34.3%
0.7%32.7%
1.3%Any 3 losses
14.6%
25.8%80.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%59.6%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%54.6%
0.1%54.6%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.2%
0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.1%
0.2%50.8%
<0.1%50.3%
0.2%47.8%
<0.1%47.7%
0.4%46.6%
0.1%46.2%
0.3%46.0%
0.4%45.5%
0.4%43.5%
0.4%42.1%
0.4%41.8%
0.6%35.5%
0.4%35.5%
0.4%35.1%
0.8%34.6%
0.4%34.3%
0.1%33.7%
0.7%30.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.4%
0.7%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.6%2.6%
0.4%2.6%
0.5%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.8%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.7%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.5%1.9%
0.7%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.9%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.7%
0.8%1.6%
1.3%1.3%
0.8%1.3%
0.8%1.3%
0.9%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
2.2%
9.6%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.4%2.1%
0.5%2.1%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.4%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.8%1.0%
0.4%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08